CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[rjgator]

I wanted to share a evacuation plan that I have used in the past in case you feel you may need to evacuate.

One great thing you can always do as well is book REFUNDABLE airline tickets to anywhere you may want to go when the storm comes in lieu of hitting the road in a car. You can book them for a day or two prior to the storm coming and need to make sure you leave enough time to make sure the airports are not closed. You can make them one way or round trip and always rent a car or P/U (In order to put gas cans and suppies in) to get home. You should do it sooner than later or you may not be able to get a flight. I do it everytime we are threatened by a major just as a precaution and so far it has paid off and I have never had to use them. (Like a good insurance policy to keep it away) They are expensive but if you do not need them they don't cost you anything. i.e Houston to Dallas right now is around $129 for a one way ticket that is fully refundable. You do not have to go very far so getting back won't be so bad.

Just an idea. It is especially good for families with small children.

[Extremeweatherguy]

108 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_108l.gif

This run does seem to suddenly kick that ULL out and build the high in quickly at the last second. I think it might be overdoing it.

Either way, this run is moving the storm WNW or NW between 102 and 108 hrs...which is interesting.

[HouTXmetro]

I'm betting the next run willbe back in Tampico..., just kidding.

[PTPatrick]

Of course the high could just as easily be over Savannah at 102...we know how great GFS is predicting these things 5 days in advance...whats a few hundred miles between friends.

[Extremeweatherguy]

120 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

landfall looks to be very near the TX/MX border (just south of Brownsville). A HUGE northward shift from the 18z and 12z runs.

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120l.gif

[Vandymit]

Now that I think about it...00Z GFS should get an "F" from the teacher for copying the NHC track!

Perhaps, the NHC track is on the money.

[micktooth]

Looks south of Brownsville to me

[PTPatrick]

So now at this point...GFS as decided not to stay the course. The big thing will be to watch the trend(as always) and see what the others do.

[CrazyC83]

732
URNT15 KNHC 180410
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 38 20070818
040030 1501N 06730W 6965 03144 0048 +089 +068 015046 046 046 000 00
040100 1459N 06731W 6967 03145 0048 +085 +072 015049 050 044 000 00
040130 1457N 06731W 6969 03142 0051 +084 +076 014050 050 046 000 00
040200 1455N 06731W 6965 03145 0051 +082 +078 014051 051 046 000 00
040230 1453N 06732W 6967 03145 0045 +088 +077 017049 050 045 000 00
040300 1451N 06732W 6967 03143 0046 +087 +080 016048 048 045 001 00
040330 1449N 06732W 6968 03145 0047 +086 +080 015047 049 044 000 00
040400 1447N 06732W 6966 03144 0052 +081 +081 010047 048 043 000 00
040430 1445N 06733W 6967 03143 0047 +085 +080 012045 045 043 000 00
040500 1443N 06733W 6966 03144 0051 +085 +076 009045 045 041 000 00
040530 1441N 06733W 6967 03144 0049 +085 +068 008045 045 042 000 00
040600 1438N 06734W 6967 03146 0053 +084 +063 005043 044 043 000 00
040630 1436N 06734W 6967 03146 0055 +082 +065 005044 045 043 000 03
040700 1434N 06734W 6967 03144 0055 +082 +069 004044 044 038 000 00
040730 1432N 06735W 6967 03148 0051 +084 +068 004044 045 038 000 00
040800 1430N 06735W 6968 03147 0052 +085 +065 003044 044 039 000 00
040830 1428N 06735W 6967 03145 0052 +085 +066 002043 044 039 000 00
040900 1426N 06735W 6966 03149 0053 +085 +071 003042 042 039 000 00
040930 1424N 06736W 6968 03147 0058 +083 +076 001038 039 041 000 00
041000 1422N 06736W 6967 03149 0063 +079 +078 000037 038 041 000 00
$$

[CronkPSU]

120 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

landfall looks to be very near the TX/LA border. A HUGE northward shift from the 18z and 12z runs.

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120l.gif

you mean texas/mexico border..big difference

[mempho]

[Vandymit]

120 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

landfall looks to be very near the TX/LA border. A HUGE northward shift from the 18z and 12z runs.

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120l.gif

TX/LA boarder? What model are you looking at?

[jhamps10]

I wanted to share a evacuation plan that I have used in the past in case you feel you may need to evacuate.

One great thing you can always do as well is book REFUNDABLE airline tickets to anywhere you may want to go when the storm comes in lieu of hitting the road in a car. You can book them for a day or two prior to the storm coming and need to make sure you leave enough time to make sure the airports are not closed. You can make them one way or round trip and always rent a car or P/U (In order to put gas cans and suppies in) to get home. You should do it sooner than later or you may not be able to get a flight. I do it everytime we are threatened by a major just as a precaution and so far it has paid off and I have never had to use them. (Like a good insurance policy to keep it away) They are expensive but if you do not need them they don't cost you anything. i.e Houston to Dallas right now is around $129 for a one way ticket that is fully refundable. You do not have to go very far so getting back won't be so bad.

Just an idea. It is especially good for families with small children.

hey that is a very smart idea, A little expensive, but u wouldn't need to worry about the traffic out of town.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I meant TX/MX...accidently typed TX/LA. My mistake. It is changed now.

[Air Force Met]

102 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_102l.gif

BIG diff in 102 with the upper low. Wichita Falls to Del Rio. That is a KEY factor. Still 180 miles north of the 18Z. The HI is also SE of where it was at 18Z.

120 Hours. Landfall about 100 miles south of the Border...compared to being over the southern BoC and southern Mex.

A 360 NM SWING to the NORTH.

[JtSmarts]

Is anyone going to post the GFS ensembles again???

[rjgator]

Check out the latest GR Level 3 radar image. The eye is a cross.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Is anyone going to post the GFS ensembles again???

when they come out I might. Sometimes though they do not come out until well after the operational run is done with.

[rjgator]

I wanted to share a evacuation plan that I have used in the past in case you feel you may need to evacuate.

One great thing you can always do as well is book REFUNDABLE airline tickets to anywhere you may want to go when the storm comes in lieu of hitting the road in a car. You can book them for a day or two prior to the storm coming and need to make sure you leave enough time to make sure the airports are not closed. You can make them one way or round trip and always rent a car or P/U (In order to put gas cans and suppies in) to get home. You should do it sooner than later or you may not be able to get a flight. I do it everytime we are threatened by a major just as a precaution and so far it has paid off and I have never had to use them. (Like a good insurance policy to keep it away) They are expensive but if you do not need them they don't cost you anything. i.e Houston to Dallas right now is around $129 for a one way ticket that is fully refundable. You do not have to go very far so getting back won't be so bad.

Just an idea. It is especially good for families with small children.

hey that is a very smart idea, A little expensive, but u wouldn't need to worry about the traffic out of town.

It sure beats spending 18 hours in the car with screaming kids or an infant worring about running out of gas with a Cat five on your tail.

[Kludge]

A few things before I crash for the night:

I'm plotting Dean with a marker & the grid set on GR3. He has been wobbling, went due west for the longest time, but does appear to be headed north of due west again, essentially parallel to the forecast track. Usually wobbles correct themselves in the long haul and I expect the same here with Dean.

Secondly, we've got a long track still ahead of us. I know tensions can run high with a Cat. 5 forecasted in the GOM but guys, let's not get upset at each other. This one is a baddie and someone's gonna take it on the chin. Jamaica is up first and we're talking about casualties ahead from Dean. All the bickering over minute details really doesn't help in the long run. The models will still swing back and forth and like many pro mets have stated, we won't know much until Sunday, at least. Have patience. A lot can and will change before then. Derek is right, it likely won't hit the 5-day mark. And unfortunately, usually when a track is adjusted, it has to be adjusted to the right. Keep that in mind.

Lastly, the board has become excessively chatty and I'm afaid it's only going to get worse. I wish somehow the madness would stop. We've had 194 pages now (heck it'll be funny if it's 195/196 when I click "Submit") because people are still posting one-liners and repeating images within posts, which isn't necessary; you can edit the image link from the reply to save real estate on the page. People, please adhere to the requests of the Mods. As a person who could potentially be in the path of Dean, I'm asking you guys to refrain from posting every thought that crosses your mind or responding to every question. If someone asks a question, PM them. We don't need 20 responses to the same question, etc. We need this board for important information, especially now as we get closer to a potential dangerous and deadly landfall of a major hurricane.

Some of you have been posting and average of 10-20+ posts an hour. That's excessive; it really is. Unless you are a pro met, or have God's infinite wisdom, you truly can't add THAT much to the discussion by posting that much. And unfortunately the worst offenders tend to post the least meaningful information. Has anyone noticed when a pro-met writes a summary for the first time in a few hours how much praise it gets? That's because it's a well thought-out, quality post, with all the pertinent information. There's no need to add to it every 5 minutes, all day long.

So, again, as someone who will be trying to find important information on the board in the coming days, please, PLEASE think before you post. Thank you and goodnight!

I couldn't agree more...AND...I want this displayed on page 200 or wherever it willl end up during the intermediate juvenile chatroom blogging that took place while he typed it. READ THIS folks, and let's mature for a day or two while this VERY SERIOUS situation unfolds.