CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[fasterdisaster]

Why has the convection warmed around the top...with the D-max approaching and less dry air intrusions youd think convection would be stronger than it is

I was wondering too, my best guess would be an upcoming ERC, but I can't know for sure.

[Duddy]

I can see it now. All the little players wanted to take on the big boy. The GFDL came to play. It's not going to be made a fool of on perhaps the biggest storm of 2007. You stick with your bread and butter. If the GFDL is an outlier, then so be it. You go with your ace when the game is on the line. This is game 7 and I want the ball in the GFDL's hand.

Hey...stick a sock in that kind of talk. The GFDL takes it right into my favorite fishing hole as a Cat 5.

Do you realize how that is going to mess up the flounder run?

Yeah and it also kills my place.

[shelby]

OK guys - I am seeing a tail off of Dean - could it be separating and the possible of a separate cane behind Dean due to the condition in the Caribbean - not trying to wishcast - just wanting answer the the convection coming off

[CrazyC83]

629
URNT15 KNHC 180431
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 40 20070818
042030 1343N 06742W 6967 03164 0072 +085 +050 330028 028 037 000 00
042100 1342N 06742W 6967 03163 0073 +086 +051 330029 031 039 001 00
042130 1340N 06742W 6967 03163 0068 +090 +048 326027 031 039 000 00
042200 1338N 06742W 6968 03162 0066 +093 +047 323025 026 035 001 00
042230 1336N 06743W 6967 03163 0067 +090 +049 324028 028 028 000 00
042300 1334N 06743W 6965 03164 0066 +092 +048 323029 029 027 000 03
042330 1333N 06744W 6968 03167 0067 +095 +047 325029 030 999 999 03
042400 1333N 06745W 6963 03174 0068 +095 +048 328026 027 999 999 03
042430 1334N 06745W 6967 03167 0064 +095 +046 321024 025 999 999 03
042500 1335N 06744W 6967 03165 0064 +094 +047 316024 025 024 000 00
042530 1336N 06743W 6969 03162 0069 +089 +053 319024 025 028 001 00
042600 1337N 06742W 6968 03159 0064 +093 +046 320021 022 035 002 00
042630 1339N 06740W 6965 03167 0062 +094 +047 321022 025 038 001 00
042700 1340N 06739W 6968 03158 0069 +085 +049 323024 025 037 000 00
042730 1341N 06738W 6965 03162 0066 +088 +047 320024 025 037 000 00
042800 1342N 06737W 6964 03159 0066 +086 +050 318023 024 034 000 00
042830 1343N 06736W 6969 03154 0067 +085 +063 321023 024 035 000 03
042900 1345N 06735W 6967 03158 0064 +086 +075 322024 025 999 999 03
042930 1346N 06737W 6966 03158 0068 +082 +082 324022 024 999 999 03
043000 1345N 06738W 6969 03157 0066 +084 +083 324025 026 999 999 03
$$

[mempho]

Check out the latest GR Level 3 radar image. The eye is a cross.

Anyway you could post that? Or at least a link? I'd love to see that.

How do I put an image on here?

When you are in the reply screen, just hit the Img button at the top and paste the link. If you need a place to host it, go to http://www.imageshack.us

[mempho]

OK guys - I am seeing a tail off of Dean - could it be separating and the possible of a separate cane behind Dean due to the condition in the Caribbean - not trying to wishcast - just wanting answer the the convection coming off

There has never been a second cane spin off an existing cane.

[fasterdisaster]

OK guys - I am seeing a tail off of Dean - could it be separating and the possible of a separate cane behind Dean due to the condition in the Caribbean - not trying to wishcast - just wanting answer the the convection coming off

That's not possible.

[sevenleft]

OK guys - I am seeing a tail off of Dean - could it be separating and the possible of a separate cane behind Dean due to the condition in the Caribbean - not trying to wishcast - just wanting answer the the convection coming off

lol.

[SMNederlandTX]

Hi. New here. I just found this site thought some people might be interested in it. Tells what storms have hit Kingston, Jamaica over the years and so on.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/city/kingston.htm

[Sanibel]

I think they are talking about the wave in the Atlantic.

Dean looks west still as far as I can tell from satellite and radar.

[jhamps10]

Is anyone else as surprised as I am to see that TWC is sending Mike Sidell to Jamaica? I hope he's bringing a brick shelter with him.

you have got to be kidding me. I for one think unless he's already en route to Jamaica, he won't make it there before airport closes TOMORROW.

[shelby]

I know that it is has never happened but look at the satelite. WHo, if anyone , can tell me why? BEcause I did not see it in Wilma, Rita or Katrina which built to this strength

[mempho]

I know that it is has never happened but look at the satelite. WHo, if anyone , can tell me why? BEcause I did not see it in Wilma, Rita or Katrina which built to this strength

Be specific. What are you talking about?

[jacindc]

Is anyone else as surprised as I am to see that TWC is sending Mike Sidell to Jamaica? I hope he's bringing a brick shelter with him.

you have got to be kidding me. I for one think unless he's already en route to Jamaica, he won't make it there before airport closes TOMORROW.

About 45 minutes ago they showed a graphic saying that he would start reporting from there tomorrow.

[KBBOCA]

Shelby, are you talking about the area of storms to the lower right of Dean?

See here for the picture I'm looking at:
http://resize.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/ ... &height=76

I think it's just a line of squalls embedded in the storm's outflow.

There is also another wave behind Dean in the Eastern Atlantic, but that's got nothing to do with Dean.

--
Oops. sorry. here's a bigger version of the picture:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

[Wthrman13]

I guess in that vein of my question I was just saying that at the point that solar flares matter then we have definately gotten the models down to a science. I appreciate the very verbose and informative answer. Are you saying that a certain amount of storm history is put into the model on initialization? I think that would definately be a key to an accurate forecast. What about the question of how far-reaching are the parameters? I see a global model outperforming a localized one for obvious reasons. Again, thank you Wthrman13.

Ah, good questions. To answer the first one, if I understand you correctly, yes, a certain amount of atmospheric history is inherent in the initialization, since the "first guess" field comes from a prior prediction from the same model. For example, in the case of the 0Z GFS (it's actually a bit more complicated than this, but this will suffice by way of illustration), the first guess field is a 6 hour prediction from the previous GFS run (18Z, in this case). The real-world data that is valid at or near 0Z is then blended with this first guess state, to produce the 0Z initial fields. The model is then stepped forward in time from this initialization, and so on. There are other, even more sophisticated techniques out there to initialize models, but this is the basic idea.

To answer your second question, limited area models, such as the NAM, generally are "nested" within a global model, so that the boundaries are continually forced from outside by the solution of the global model. In the case of the NAM, the GFS provides the boundary conditions, but the interior model prediction is entirely the NAM. Typically, the local, or regional model will be designed to run at a higher resolution (more detail) than the global model, so it typically will perform better than the global in that particular region, but not always. Otherwise, there would be little point to running regional or local models.

[shelby]

I am taling about the convection tail which is currently following Dean

[CrazyC83]

294
URNT15 KNHC 180440
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 41 20070818
043030 1343N 06738W 6963 03170 0073 +084 +061 325025 026 999 999 03
043100 1343N 06737W 6968 03159 0069 +086 +060 320023 024 025 000 03
043130 1344N 06735W 6968 03153 0062 +086 +072 316023 024 034 000 00
043200 1345N 06734W 6965 03156 0075 +073 +073 313024 024 034 006 00
043230 1346N 06733W 6963 03160 0087 +063 +063 316023 025 032 007 00
043300 1348N 06731W 6965 03153 0079 +069 +069 311026 027 030 004 00
043330 1349N 06730W 6965 03154 0061 +080 +080 315027 028 029 000 00
043400 1350N 06729W 6970 03147 0058 +083 +083 323025 026 031 000 00
043430 1351N 06728W 6967 03151 0063 +079 +079 329024 025 030 000 00
043500 1352N 06727W 6965 03150 0063 +080 +077 335028 029 031 000 00
043530 1353N 06725W 6967 03149 0061 +078 +072 336028 028 032 000 00
043600 1355N 06724W 6966 03149 0057 +081 +070 332027 028 031 000 00
043630 1356N 06723W 6967 03145 0056 +080 +079 332029 030 031 000 00
043700 1357N 06722W 6967 03145 0052 +083 +078 332029 029 033 000 00
043730 1358N 06721W 6967 03144 0049 +085 +076 329028 029 032 000 00
043800 1359N 06720W 6965 03144 0045 +087 +072 326027 028 034 000 00
043830 1400N 06718W 6964 03144 0042 +089 +073 325029 030 034 000 00
043900 1402N 06717W 6966 03140 0040 +090 +074 326031 032 034 000 00
043930 1403N 06716W 6964 03144 0039 +090 +067 328031 032 034 000 00
044000 1404N 06715W 6967 03135 0035 +090 +069 325030 032 036 000 00
$$

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Thats a feeder band. No chance of tropical cyclone formation because of the shear the hurricanes LLC is putting with in the area. That is why when two systems get to close to each other the weaker one dies.

[PTPatrick]

Interesting thought...THe 5 AM track will feature a landfall point, possibly on the US/MX or even more north. That will REALLY put the media hounds on it...are we ready to hear "Dean eye's texas for the next 5 days''. On a serious note...the 5 am will be the most important advisory yet for the US gulf coast. I imagine the NHC will be thinking long and hard about where to put that dot.

I can only imagine how heavy their hearts where when they had to finally put that Katrina dot on New Orleans.