Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#201 Postby artist » Sat Aug 18, 2007 12:15 am

154 knots at flight level; SFMR is much less impressive.


what does this mean?
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#202 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 12:15 am

154 kt FL = 138 kt at surface. Just inside Cat 5, although they may hold it at 135 kt for now.
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#203 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 12:16 am

artist wrote:
154 knots at flight level; SFMR is much less impressive.


what does this mean?


Possibly Category 5.
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#204 Postby artist » Sat Aug 18, 2007 12:17 am

I mean this -
SFMR is much less impressive.
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#205 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 12:18 am

I personally would hold it at 135 kt for now. However, if they do pull the trigger and go Cat 5, expect a Special Advisory.
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#206 Postby Incident_MET » Sat Aug 18, 2007 12:20 am

threell be a 2am coming up so I wouldn't expect a special.
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#207 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 12:21 am

Incident_MET wrote:threell be a 2am coming up so I wouldn't expect a special.


A special would update everything including the track and forecast intensity. Intermediates only update the current status.
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#208 Postby RL3AO » Sat Aug 18, 2007 12:22 am

Incident_MET wrote:threell be a 2am coming up so I wouldn't expect a special.


They had a special earlier over an intermediate when it became a Cat 3.
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#209 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sat Aug 18, 2007 12:23 am

fasterdisaster wrote:Is this going to be the last pass at the center?


Flight according to recon schedule ends at 2AM EDT, so this was likely the last pass, but I don't know for sure.
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#210 Postby Incident_MET » Sat Aug 18, 2007 12:26 am

Thats a good point about category chg and the special adv. Verbage on the intermediate should be interesting.
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#211 Postby Incident_MET » Sat Aug 18, 2007 12:31 am

Also they would have sent a TCUAT4 if a category increase occurred. Siimilar to 930 last night when it went to a four.
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#212 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Aug 18, 2007 12:32 am

This is 159.39 mph at the surface using .9. So yes it is a soild cat5.
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#213 Postby miamicanes177 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 12:52 am

NHC goes with 150mph cat 4
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#214 Postby artist » Sat Aug 18, 2007 1:27 am

I really wish they had gone with the 5 so the islands would take it more seriously.
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#215 Postby baitism » Sat Aug 18, 2007 2:17 am

Anyone who does not take a cat4 seriously will not take a cat5 seriously either....
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#216 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 4:14 am

This is what Beven said in his discussion why he didn't upgrade Dean to Cat 5:

NEAR 0500 UTC...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
REPORTED 154 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL OF
DEAN...AND ALSO REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE FELL TO 930 MB.
THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS COULD HAVE JUSTIFIED CALLING DEAN A CATEGORY
FIVE HURRICANE. HOWEVER...DATA FROM DROPSONDES...THE STEPPED-
FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
DID NOT SUPPORT THAT STATUS. THE INTENSITY WAS THUS SET TO A
SLIGHTLY MORE CONSERVATIVE 130 KT. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF DEAN SINCE THE AIRCRAFT LEFT...SO 130
KT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.


I think it's pretty good call.
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#217 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Aug 18, 2007 4:18 am

How much can we trust the surface wind thing on the recon?
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#218 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 4:46 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:How much can we trust the surface wind thing on the recon?


I don't know, but alot of the SFMR reports have been coming up "suspect" and sometimes they don't correlate to the flight level wind reports. However, drospondes which are actual wind instruments taken down to the surface, didn't support it either.
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#219 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 7:00 am

145kt max FL wind supports 150mph intensity at the surface. Also there was an extrapolated pressure down to about 924mb.
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#220 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Aug 18, 2007 7:00 am

114830 1528N 06745W 6957 02738 9553 +111 +111 137143 145 121 000 00

143 * .90 = 128.7 knots (130 knots)
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