CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

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hicksta
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models

#7461 Postby hicksta » Sat Aug 18, 2007 12:36 am

thats the same GFDL
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Re:

#7462 Postby mgpetre » Sat Aug 18, 2007 12:36 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Latest GFDL out...


...hit just north of Matagorda. Pretty similar to the 18z GFDL.


Geez... and here I was two weeks ago just wishing to see a TS... now I'm hoping this all was just a dream. It's crazy how relative the effects of these things can be too. I'm sure there will be some people with minimal damage and others will lose their lives. I guess it's all just nature at work. No rhyme or reason but this is the season.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11PM page 192) Discussions, Analysis

#7463 Postby mempho » Sat Aug 18, 2007 12:36 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
The truth is that it is 138 kt at the surface, and the NHC has held back at times on those. I'd go with 135 kt/929mb right now.


All I'm trying to say is that the winds either are sustained at 156mph or greater or they aren't. Just because the NHC decides to hold back does not mean that it didn't reach category 5 status. I'm talking about truth. Unfortunatately, as Avila said in an interview, the NHC can't always go with sweeping changes when a storm is going on. They have to be careful not to make hasty decisions that lead to panic.
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models

#7464 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 12:36 am

shelby wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:GFDL will probably shift south a bit. Near Corpus.


That is scary for texas


Not unless it tracks N of Jamaica and thru the Yucatan Channel.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11PM page 192) Discussions, Analysis

#7465 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Aug 18, 2007 12:37 am

At flight level 154 knots=159.39 at the surface...That is closer to Emily was to cat5. I think she was around 158 mph surface winds.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models

#7466 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Aug 18, 2007 12:37 am

GFDL, while still hitting Texas, is trending farther South each run today. dModel/dT is trending in our favor.
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models

#7467 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 18, 2007 12:37 am

hicksta wrote:thats the same GFDL
No it isn't. I just watched it change on the wxunderground page.
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#7468 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 12:37 am

126
URNT15 KNHC 180530
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 46 20070818
052030 1600N 06627W 6968 03119 0028 +081 +081 091065 066 055 007 00
052100 1602N 06627W 6959 03131 0040 +071 +071 092061 066 056 047 03
052130 1603N 06627W 6966 03126 0057 +060 +060 086055 057 056 039 03
052200 1605N 06627W 6977 03111 0064 +058 +058 077058 061 057 016 00
052230 1607N 06627W 6970 03122 0061 +059 +059 080062 062 057 016 00
052300 1608N 06627W 6961 03140 0070 +058 +058 079066 069 055 016 03
052330 1610N 06627W 6966 03130 0071 +058 +058 076066 070 054 043 03
052400 1611N 06627W 6962 03141 0074 +059 +059 078064 065 053 016 03
052430 1613N 06627W 6969 03133 0073 +061 +061 079066 067 052 007 03
052500 1613N 06627W 6969 03133 0068 +064 +064 081065 067 052 007 00
052530 1616N 06627W 6968 03139 0056 +074 +074 084059 064 049 004 00
052600 1617N 06627W 6966 03144 0063 +071 +071 090060 062 049 006 00
052630 1619N 06627W 6969 03139 0058 +076 +076 094058 059 050 007 00
052700 1621N 06627W 6968 03141 0060 +075 +075 094056 057 050 007 00
052730 1621N 06627W 6968 03141 0062 +075 +075 093057 058 050 007 00
052800 1624N 06627W 6966 03145 0066 +074 +074 094060 062 051 006 00
052830 1626N 06627W 6965 03148 0065 +075 +075 093062 062 050 006 00
052900 1627N 06627W 6965 03150 0071 +070 +070 088065 066 048 006 00
052930 1627N 06627W 6965 03150 0071 +072 +072 086064 065 048 006 00
053000 1631N 06627W 6965 03151 0072 +070 +070 085058 065 048 032 03
$$
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models

#7469 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 12:37 am

Ed Mahmoud wrote:New vortex message- even stronger!



WOW!!!! Mean Dean a cat.5 now???!!!
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#7470 Postby hicksta » Sat Aug 18, 2007 12:37 am

Nevermind your right it just changed for me.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11PM page 192) Discussions, Analysis

#7471 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 12:38 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:At flight level 154 knots=159.39 at the surface...That is closer to Emily was to cat5. I think she was around 158 mph surface winds.


Emily was not a Cat 5 operationally...
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Re:

#7472 Postby HouTXmetro » Sat Aug 18, 2007 12:38 am

hicksta wrote:Nevermind your right it just changed for me.


GFDL link please?
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models

#7473 Postby artist » Sat Aug 18, 2007 12:39 am

that was the 8pm gfdl
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#7474 Postby mnjb28 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 12:39 am

Do you think that ull over south florida will have any affect on dean? The ull seems to be moving slow?
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models

#7475 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 18, 2007 12:40 am

artist wrote:that was the 8pm gfdl
It always says 8pm on wxunderground for 0z runs. I think it is b/c technically "8pm" is "0z".
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11PM page 192) Discussions, Analysis

#7476 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Aug 18, 2007 12:40 am

I know that. But it got upgraded to it, so this has even a better chance. In also cat5 is 156+ mph winds. So this falls with in it.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11PM page 192) Discussions, Analysis

#7477 Postby weunice » Sat Aug 18, 2007 12:40 am

I really wanted to sleep tonight

A quick question from a dummy ... the pressure seems high for a Cat 5. Is it possible since some of the models have given ominous hints at a ~900mb possibility that we could see a record for maximum sustained winds especially with the forward speed of this storm? Does it work like that? Whats within the realm of theoretically possible? Should we expect an ERC to break the deepening cycle soon?

Man I hope so .... Trust me ... I don't want to see this especially on a course for Jamaica. This is just terrible.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models

#7478 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Aug 18, 2007 12:41 am

HouTXmetro wrote:with Deans movement tonight, I just don't see the GFDL verifying that far north. We shall see.


Indeed. At 6 hours, or right about now, GFDL is predicting a motion of 16º North of due West. Eyeballing Dean (easy, at start of floater, center of eye a tad South of 15ºN, now center right on 15º, or just a hair North of due West) GFDL is already wrong.
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#7479 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 18, 2007 12:41 am

The 0z UKMET and 0z GFS tracks have also now updated on that above image.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11PM page 192) Discussions, Analysis

#7480 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Aug 18, 2007 12:42 am

The data on the thing that comes in with only 5 knot winds is now=927 millibars. Yes slightly high for a cat5. But it has happen.
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