CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[CrazyC83]

I really wanted to sleep tonight

A quick question from a dummy ... the pressure seems high for a Cat 5. Is it possible since some of the models have given ominous hints at a ~900mb possibility that we could see a record for maximum sustained winds especially with the forward speed of this storm? Does it work like that? Whats within the realm of theoretically possible? Should we expect an ERC to break the deepening cycle soon?

Man I hope so .... Trust me ... I don't want to see this especially on a course for Jamaica. This is just terrible.

Dean is not going to break any pressure records with the ridge to the north. It may not get below 920mb even as a solid Cat 5. However, who knows how high the winds will get...

[Extremeweatherguy]

GFDL, while still hitting Texas, is trending farther South each run today. dModel/dT is trending in our favor.

Believe me, if the GFS and other models are right about the positioning of the ULL and high next week, then nothing will be in Texas' favor. Stay tuned for further model shifts until we nail a more certain track by Sunday. Hopefully things do end up in our favor by then, but as of tonight I am even more concerned than I was this afternoon.

[mahmoo]

Yeah.....150+ winds on that little island.......not good.

[CrazyC83]

096
URNT15 KNHC 180541
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 47 20070818
053030 1632N 06627W 6967 03149 0072 +072 +072 081050 054 047 007 00
053100 1634N 06627W 6967 03151 0079 +070 +070 081049 050 047 006 00
053130 1635N 06627W 6967 03154 0076 +073 +073 079054 055 048 005 00
053200 1637N 06627W 6965 03159 0080 +072 +072 081055 055 049 004 00
053230 1639N 06627W 6967 03155 0086 +068 +068 082056 056 047 005 00
053300 1640N 06627W 6965 03162 0080 +073 +073 082056 056 045 005 00
053330 1642N 06627W 6970 03154 0074 +078 +078 081055 056 046 004 00
053400 1643N 06627W 6967 03162 0076 +078 +076 080056 057 047 006 00
053430 1645N 06627W 6968 03162 0078 +077 +074 078059 060 045 006 00
053500 1646N 06627W 6966 03162 0087 +071 +071 079060 061 045 008 00
053530 1648N 06627W 6969 03158 0085 +074 +071 078059 059 047 005 00
053600 1650N 06627W 6967 03162 0083 +076 +070 079059 059 047 005 00
053630 1651N 06627W 6968 03164 0081 +080 +064 079060 061 045 004 00
053700 1653N 06627W 6965 03168 0076 +083 +065 078055 056 046 002 00
053730 1654N 06627W 6967 03166 0075 +085 +062 079053 053 047 001 00
053800 1656N 06627W 6967 03166 0074 +088 +053 080053 054 045 000 00
053830 1657N 06627W 6967 03167 0076 +090 +048 078054 054 046 000 00
053900 1659N 06626W 6968 03166 0076 +089 +043 080056 057 046 000 00
053930 1700N 06626W 6965 03173 0075 +091 +042 079057 057 045 000 00
054000 1702N 06625W 6952 03188 0075 +090 +045 078058 059 043 000 00
$$

[Aric Dunn]

I really wanted to sleep tonight

A quick question from a dummy ... the pressure seems high for a Cat 5. Is it possible since some of the models have given ominous hints at a ~900mb possibility that we could see a record for maximum sustained winds especially with the forward speed of this storm? Does it work like that? Whats within the realm of theoretically possible? Should we expect an ERC to break the deepening cycle soon?

Man I hope so .... Trust me ... I don't want to see this especially on a course for Jamaica. This is just terrible.

The winds are directly related to pressure.. the pressure now may seem high, but the background pressure (the pressure outside the hurricane) is also high and slightly above normal so the pressure gradient is stronger hence the stronger winds .

now we may see a drop in pressure that may be more cat 5 like ..

and a ERC should start at some point .. i am already seeing some wobbling on the radar .. but we have to wait

[Extremeweatherguy]

BTW, for anybody just clicking onto this thread. You can see an image of the new GFS, UKMET and GFDL runs on page 141.

[mahmoo]

do you think it will be a stronger storm after the ERC?

[Ivanhater]

UKMET hasnt updated for me yet

[Aric Dunn]

all the deep reds came back...

latest image as of 531

[KBBOCA]

Am I seeing things? This can't be right, can it?

The GFDL animation on W. Underground is showing Dean as staying at a Cat 5 from the Caribbean (i.e. about now!) all the way to landfall on the Texas coast.

Has there ever been such a long-lived Cat 5???? This is crazy, right?
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 5d#a_topad

Those wind speeds are insane.

[Stratosphere747]

BTW, for anybody just clicking onto this thread. You can see an image of the new GFS, UKMET and GFDL runs on page 141.

Shows a Mexico LF....

[fasterdisaster]

UKMET hasnt updated for me yet

Same here.

[HouTXmetro]

GFDL, while still hitting Texas, is trending farther South each run today. dModel/dT is trending in our favor.

Believe me, if the GFS and other models are right about the positioning of the ULL and high next week, then nothing will be in Texas' favor. Stay tuned for further model shifts until we nail a more certain track by Sunday. Hopefully things do end up in our favor by then, but as of tonight I am even more concerned than I was this afternoon.

I was more concerned this morning when 3 models were pointing at SE TX. I feel much better tonight with a majority of the models aiming South of Mexico. Still plenty of time for the models to trend one way or another.

[mahmoo]

.

[weatherguru18]

Models seem to be trending north again with the exception of the gfdl. This is futher confirmation that the models don't a have a fricken clue. However the reliable gfdl seems to be in more agreement with the other models. Keep in mind that this particular model is still an outlier and is just south of Houston. We ain't out of it yet!

[Air Force Met]

GFDL, while still hitting Texas, is trending farther South each run today. dModel/dT is trending in our favor.

Believe me, if the GFS and other models are right about the positioning of the ULL and high next week, then nothing will be in Texas' favor. Stay tuned for further model shifts until we nail a more certain track by Sunday. Hopefully things do end up in our favor by then, but as of tonight I am even more concerned than I was this afternoon.

You know EWG...we don't agree very often...especially not in the winter forum...

But you have just said something I concur with 100%.

Models have a HARD time handling upper lows and the models are going to flip back and forth. I imagine they will move north again...especially since Erin isn't getting out of the way as progged. This starts a chain reaction in which the upper low slows and travels more west...which opens the door up further north.

It is all about the upper low...and the HWRF and the GFDL have been onto it for a while. Even the ETA sees where it is going. The GFS has a hard time with upper lows...hence the botched track as of late. If it can get a handle on it...it will come around.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Am I seeing things? This can't be right, can it?

The GFDL animation on W. Underground is showing Dean as staying at a Cat 5 from the Caribbean (i.e. about now!) all the way to landfall on the Mex/Tex border.

Has there ever been such a long-lived Cat 5???? This is crazy, right?
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 5d#a_topad

That is not showing a Tex/Mex border landfall..it is showing a central/upper TX coastline landfall..and yes you are seeing it right.

[maxx9512]

repeating the 200 am AST position...15.0 N...66.7 W. Movement
toward...west near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...150 mph.
Minimum central pressure...930 mb.

[Ptarmigan]

I saw the most recent GFDL model and has Dean hitting Texas a Category 5 hurricane. It's rather bullish and too early to tell.

[maxx9512]

repeating the 200 am AST position...15.0 N...66.7 W. Movement
toward...west near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...150 mph.
Minimum central pressure...930 mb.