CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[weatherguru18]

Is the gfdl still pulling its weight so to speak? Is the hurricane center still giving it some credit? From the looks of the cone, I don't think so. The GFDL went from Houston to Lafayette to Freeport. It's stayed in the same general area. This is what makes me uneasy.

From the looks of the IR, I think it is very possible that the ULL will be over Texas just in time for Dean to turn into it. I'm not making a prediction, just verbally thinking.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm waiting for the person at Wik to update the ACE for the storms for this year.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Atlan ... ane_season

I think its over 10 at least for dean.

[mobilebay]

all the models are saying dean should be heading just north of west but it is riding the 15 deg line as if it were a zip line and has been for quite a while now. I dont ever recall seeing a storm head on such a strait line before.

I do. Huricane andrew did it for a couple of days when it leveled homestead. It stayed on that Latitude for a while.

Well ya that was a fairly straight track thru the bahamas. I should have remebered that one since i was right smack in the eye of it and lost 3/4 of my roof over my head.

Yep! I figured you would remember that one. Ive seen alot of hurricane damage and God knows we have had our share. However ,I have NEVER seen wind damage like that EVER.

[crazycajuncane]

One thing is for sure... Jamaica is about 24 hours away from seeing a monster at the doorstep. I still wouldn't buy into the models for another 48 hours. Mass hysteria and panic already seems to be creeping up.

It's never too early to be prepared... aren't we all supposed to be along the gulf coast?

As of this moment NO ONE knows where it will go. We can speculate, guess or even make a wild correct prediction, but a storm this strong don't listen!

[artist]

Didn't it turn out that alot of the homes in Homestead were built below standard they found out?

[jhamps10]

Is the gfdl still pulling its weight so to speak? Is the hurricane center still giving it some credit? From the looks of the cone, I don't think so. The GFDL went from Houston to Lafayette to Freeport. It's stayed in the same general area. This is what makes me uneasy.

From the looks of the IR, I think it is very possible that the ULL will be over Texas just in time for Dean to turn into it. I'm not making a prediction, just verbally thinking.

Well Max Mayfield is still giving it credit, BUT he's now doing TV instead of NHC. I think that the hurricane center needs to give gfdl a bit more credit than what it has so far, for being the most reliable model for the past few years. I think that a mid-texas coast landfall is possible, IF it goes on top or north of Jamaica. if not, then Brownsville and south into Mexico is of big threat,

[mobilebay]

Didn't it turn out that alot of the homes in Homestead were built below standard they found out?

well they said it was that. However, I think it was more of the 164 MPH wind gusts that the NHC recorded, that done it. If you look at some of the Video on youtube it's unreal. Brick buildings laying flat. It looks like An F5 Tornado cut through there with a 70 mile swath. UNREAL!

[ExBailbonds]

Didn't it turn out that alot of the homes in Homestead were built below standard they found out?

Ya lennar homes were leveled Re: Country Walk sw152st and sw137 av

[artist]

Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 10 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 42.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 54.4 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 27.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 13 sec
Average Period (APD): 9.0 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.39 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.29 in ( Falling Rapidly )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 78.3 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.7 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 75.6 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 81.1 °F
buoy 42059

[ExBailbonds]

My family home was a new custom bult in 1990 my dad did most of the work himself since he was the construction foreman for the builder. But we had a weakness that was a patio roof the ran the entire rear of the house 70' x 16 it came off in one piece flipped over the house landed 2 blocks away in one piece. it split the supporting beam lentghwise. it was a 4'' x 12'' beam that was thru bolted to the colums all tha was left of the beam was 4'' x 6'' 70' feet long still atached to the coulums. When it went it took some the house roof with it then the wind got in just started taking full sheets of plywood off one by one. As we ran from one room to another.

Boy what a ride!! I sure hope dean does not hit any one as a cat 5

And yes that patio roof had all the huricane straps on it.

[Normandy]

Evening Thoughts,
Im going to write a lot about this, because in the last 24 hours Hurricane Dean has threatened to become one of the most devastaing, intense, and deadliest hurricanes we have seen. Since sparing the islands (and I say sparing because what it is now and what it was then are two totally different beasts) Dean has bombed into a borderline Category 5 storms. The 154kt Flight level winds, if using proper reduction, suggests 160 mph surface winds...However cloudtops have warmed and that reduction isn't appropriate for this situation. Regardless, Dean is well on its way to Category 5.

TRACK
This is important....very important.....and even MORE important because Dean is forecasted to hit in 4 days. I will first explain my reasoning by posting the GFS 500 mb analysis for the following days:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/init/gfs_500_init.html

Ill go by a step by step analysis of the relationship between Dean and the crucial ULL that will ultimately determine who gets leveled by this monster. If you want just open the link in a new window and follow along with the images.

Initial: Correctly places the ULL in the SW Carribean sea, as Dean starts to clear PR to the south. Notice Erin's remnants still remain in N Texas (this is more important than you think).
12 HR: Moves the ULL slightly to the FL Peninsula. Dean, at this point (per NHC), should be just south of the DR. The distance between the two lessens, and at this point Dean should be moving WNW and feeling the weakness being induced by this ULL. Notice Erin is STILL over Texas and actually is deeper now than yesterday.
24 Hr: Moves the ULL a great deal W and places it due south of the FL Panhandle. That means this ULL moves all the way from the Bahamas from when these runs were initialized (About an hour ago) to due south of the panhandle....a distance of about 400 miles. To due this, the ULL will need to have an average speed of 16 mph from this time till 3 AM EST Sunday (If my math is correct). Looking at the WV, that ULL is not going to move that far in this amount of time. Dean, at this point, should be starting to clear Haiti and making its move towards Jamaica. Even if the GFS run pans out, the distance between these two systems (Dean and the ULL) is narrowed further. At this point, Dean should be moving WNW and should have more of a northerly component then 12 hrs prior.
36 Hr: Moves the ULL another 200 miles in 12 hours (meaning that the ULL would need to average 16 mph....much more feasible). At this point, Dean would be over or near Jamaica, probably just passing it. The distance between the two holds steady. At this point, Dean should still be moving WNW. Oh and btw, Erin is STILL over N Texas.
48 Hr: ULL moves more, but thats not the important thing. This is the first time we see Dean's location according to the model. Notice its near the Eastern portions of N Cuba. According to the NHC track, Dean should be near or over Grand Cayman island. Not only is the GFS apparently moving this ULL too fast, its moving Dean to slow. This is the first time it becomes apparant that the GFS is out to lunch.
60 Hr: ULL is approaching the Lower Texas coast, Dean approaches Grand Cayman island. According to the NHC track, Dean should be nearing the Yucatan at this point. Again, the GFS is far too slow with Dean. Oh, and Erin is still there.


What does this mean? If the GFS were even right, Dean would be much further west in tandem with this ULL...so its incorrectly assessing the speeds of one, if not BOTH weather systems (Dean and the ULL).
Here is my analysis of how I think this situation plays out:

- 24 Hr -
I can't fathom the ULL moving that much in the next 24 hours, and it seems reasonable that by this time tomorrow the ULL over the Bahamas will be on the western Florida coast, not due south of the Panhandle. For this reason, Dean should begin to show a northerly component to his motion rather soon....and by tom morning Dean's due westward motion SHOULD be done with, and a heading of 285-295 should commence. This puts jamaica right in the crosshairs, and likely will suffer a direct strike from a Category 5 Hurricane Dean. Dean and the ULL should gain proximity, and Dean should begin being ventilated by the ULL and it should feel the weakeness it is producing.

- 48 Hr -
Dean should be approaching Grand Cayman Island, and the ULL should be somewhere south of MS. The proximity between the two should begin to lessen further, and at this point Dean might get sheared by the ULL, but I won't call for shearing of Dean just yet. At this point, Dean should be moving wnw at a heading of 295 or so due to the proximity to the ULL and the weakness it is producing. Also, Erin remains in N Texas and seems to be creating a weakness in the ridge over the SE US over central texas. These two weather systems in tandem, should produce a weakness sufficient enough to bring Dean just north of Cozumel and near the tip of the Yucatan peninsula. A strike on Cuba is not likely, but its more plausible to me then a strike near Belize. A path through the Yucatan Channel is plausible as well. I feel that Grand Cayman will encounter the eye of Dean, and Dean will likely be a Category 3 hurricane at this point (due to weakening because of Jamaica).

- 60 Hr -
By now, Dean should be entering the GOM. At this point in time, the ULL should be somewhere south of LA and approaching the TX coast. Dean should be right behind it, and at this point imo, Dean should be moving at a heading of 305-315 and should be feeling the weakness left in the ridge by not only the ULL, but Erin's remnants. This weakness should be sufficient enough to set Dean on a course for Texas. The exact landfall location is not very clear, but anywhere from Brownsville to Galveston looks likely. I can't see this moving anyhwere south of this area due to the poor timing that the GFS shows with the ULL and Dean (And even with this poor time it brings the storm near Brownsville. By this time, Dean will be about 24 hours from nearing the coast. At this time, my greatest risk for landfall in Texas is Matagorda Bay. It should be noted that the strength, and more importantly, the size of Dean could change this thinking. If Dean explodes to Katrina sized, the effects of the weakness would probably be more pronounced.



INTENSITY
Pretty straightforward for the next 24-48 Hours. Dean is going to become a monster....somewhere along the lines of 140 kt within the next day. Fluctations in intensity from that point will be caused by internal dynamics. It is possible that Dean becomes even stronger (150-160kt) as it is passing over high THCP and blazing SST's....add that in with a amazing upper air environment and Dean is set to become not only strong, but legendary. Jamaica will likely be facing the wrath of a true Category 5 cyclone, with winds on the order of 140-150 kts. Interaction with Haiti could alter Dean a bit, but I dont think it will approach it close enough to have any long term effects. Jamaica, quite possibly, will be totally destroyed by Dean, and loss of life in the DR/Haiti and Jamaica could reach 1000+. Very, very, very troubling scenario unfolding here....It should be noted that the last major hurricane to go over Jamaica was Gilbert (Cat3)....this will be far stronger....and subsequently, far more devastating. After Jamaica, Dean should weaken but still retain major hurricane status due too fast forward speed. After this, Dean should further strengthen (although interaction with the ULL could induce shear). Residents of the Grand Cayman should prepare for a major cane, and resident of the Yucatan should do the same. Intensity in the gulf is too far out to have much confidence, but a major strike is likely.



The GFS, despite its shift north, still is just not handling the important weather systems vital to steering Dean. The GFDL seems to have a MUCH better handle. If I were in Houston, Matagorda, Corpus, or Brownsville.....I would be making preparations. Preparations include: Gathering goods, gas, supplies. People in these areas also should prepare to evacuate. At this point, here are my percentages for strike:

Haiti/DR: 40% (So high because the H-force winds of Dean will still rake the southern shors)
Jamaica: 90%
Cozumel: 60%
Cancun: 75%
Isle of Youth: 50%
Caymans: 80%

These averages should be separate as they are FAR out.
Tampico: 20%
Brownsvile: 50%
Corpus: 70%
Houston: 50%


Folks......this is going to be terrble. Pray for those in Jamaica.

[PTrackerLA]

A good friend of mine's two brothers are currently in Jamaica, they haven't been able to contact them today and as far as they know have no plans to leave the island until Wednesday. We're all hoping that they were too busy getting a flight away from there to call. It's going to be hell on that island by Sunday

[wxmann_91]

did not have time for track, but it would be similar to the latest NHC track (maybe a bit further north)

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

MAJOR HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION 3
THE WXMANN
0600Z AUG 18 2007

....DANGEROUS HURRICANE DEAN STRENGTHENS TO A STRONG CATEGORY 4....

....SYNOPSIS....
Over the past 6-12 hours, Dean has gone through a rapid intensification cycle. The eye has continued to dry out, but convection is rather scanty and the eyewall may be developing a weak spot to the southwest, a byproduct of perhaps some shear. Though recon data may support a category 5, the less impressive SFMR, warm cloud tops (suggesting that the standard reduction from flight level winds may not apply), and the relatively high central pressure of the storm suggests that the NHC estimate of 130 kt is the best way to go for now.

The hurricane continues to be steered by a deep layer ridge to the north, with a slight decrease in forward speed. The past few hours have shown a westward deviation in Dean, however, a west-northwest track is expected to resume this morning.


....TRACK....
The track for the first 48-72 hr is rather simple. As mentioned, the ridge will drive Dean westward at a pretty good clip. In addition, aside from the GFDL, which erroneously moves Dean northwest in the next 36 hr, the model guidance is tightly clustered around a west-northwest track.

The forecast past 72 hr is problematic. Models diverged earlier today, but the 00Z suite is more congruent. The key is in the upper level low, which is likely badly modeled attm, and has been badly modeled since Day 1. How far west the ridge is, and how significant a weakness is carved, will determine where Dean goes. Where Dean ends up at 72 hr will be significant. If it is far enough north, it would likely catch the weakness and veer into Texas, while further south, and the weakness may not be strong enough to catch the likely large and strong Dean. In fact, many of the global models suggest that the ridge builds back westward past hr 120.

I believe that there are two main options, a track that will veer northward into Texas at the last moment, or a track that bends westward near landfall down in mainland Mexico. The latter is supported by many of the global models, and climatology for CV-originated Caribbean runners which make Yucatan landfall. The former is supported by the (likely erroneous) GFDL and the GFS Ensemble mean.

For right now, I will go down the middle of the line, a wnw track to near Brownsville. I am not completely buying the southern track due to the poor handling of the ULL thus far, and the tenacity for such ULL's to remain stronger and slower than progged. It cannot be stressed enough that errors in track at 5 days can be significant.

Confidence in the track for the first 72 hr is HIGH. Afterwards, LOW.


....INTENSITY....
Dean has most likely bottomed out... for now. Latest IR images show a constricting eye and decreased convection, so an ERC is likely to begin within 12 hr, thus slight weakening is noted at 12-24 hours.. WV imagery shows the outflow connection between Dean and a central Atlantic ULL, alluded to days earlier, which was likely the impetus for the RIC earlier today.

I expect the ULL to the east to continue to help with outflow. In addition, the all-important ULL to the west may start opening a more substantial polar outflow channel in the near future. Given dual outflow channels, light shear, and increased heat content along the storm's path, strengthening would normally be expected. However, any interactions between the ULL to the west and Dean that shears, given the rapid forward motion of Dean, could be significant. I will not reflect that in the forecast though. More importantly is land interaction with Jamaica and eyewall replacement cycles, which are reflected with slight intensity decreases at specific time intervals.

The intensity forecast past the Yucatan is largely dependent on track. A more northerly and easterly solution would likely result in a stronger solution. The environment in the GOM is prognosticated to be continued favorable with dual outflow channels and a strong 200mb anticyclone developing just to the northeast of the system, in the ideal position if it were to shoot through the weakness.

Confidence in the intensity for the first 72 hr is HIGH. Afterwards, LOW-MEDIUM and strongly dependant on track.


....EXTENDED PERIODS....
Dean is likely to move inland past 5 days. If Dean is to shoot through the weakness, interaction with the ULL, along with a possible stalling scenario past day 6/7, could mean major flooding problems for TX.


....IMPACTS, RECOMMENDATIONS, ET CETERA....
All persons in Puerto Rico should be in safe shelter right now as the storm rolls by. Impacts should be minimal.

All persons in Hispaniola facing the Caribbean side need to be finishing preparations at this time, and seeking safe shelter. Impacts will be moderate, but

those in areas prone to flooding need to seek higher ground immediately.

All persons in Jamaica and the Cayman Islands need to be making preparations now. An emergency plan needs to be already in place. Impacts in these areas will likely be extreme to catastrophic.

All persons in the Yucatan peninsula need to be preparing and beginning to make preparations. Impacts in this area will likely be extreme to catastrophic.

All persons in Cuba need to be watching Dean carefully for any deviation in track. Good time to stock up on supplies. Impacts as of right now look to be rather minimal, but could change very rapidly.

All persons in northeast mainland Mexico, and the TX/LA coast need to keep tabs with this storm. Good time to stock up on supplies. Impacts unknown attm.


HOUR......TIME.........INTENSITY
0 HR......18/0600......130 kt
12 HR.....18/1800......125 kt
24 HR.....19/0600......125 kt
36 HR.....19/1800......130 kt
48 HR.....20/0600......120 kt
60 HR.....20/1800......130 kt
72 HR.....21/0600......130 kt
96 HR.....22/0600......105 kt
120 HR....23/0600......115 kt

[TexasF6]

Evening Thoughts,
Im going to write a lot about this, because in the last 24 hours Hurricane Dean has threatened to become one of the most devastaing, intense, and deadliest hurricanes we have seen. Since sparing the islands (and I say sparing because what it is now and what it was then are two totally different beasts) Dean has bombed into a borderline Category 5 storms. The 154kt Flight level winds, if using proper reduction, suggests 160 mph surface winds...However cloudtops have warmed and that reduction isn't appropriate for this situation. Regardless, Dean is well on its way to Category 5.

TRACK
This is important....very important.....and even MORE important because Dean is forecasted to hit in 4 days. I will first explain my reasoning by posting the GFS 500 mb analysis for the following days:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/init/gfs_500_init.html

Ill go by a step by step analysis of the relationship between Dean and the crucial ULL that will ultimately determine who gets leveled by this monster. If you want just open the link in a new window and follow along with the images.

Initial: Correctly places the ULL in the SW Carribean sea, as Dean starts to clear PR to the south. Notice Erin's remnants still remain in N Texas (this is more important than you think).
12 HR: Moves the ULL slightly to the FL Peninsula. Dean, at this point (per NHC), should be just south of the DR. The distance between the two lessens, and at this point Dean should be moving WNW and feeling the weakness being induced by this ULL. Notice Erin is STILL over Texas and actually is deeper now than yesterday.
24 Hr: Moves the ULL a great deal W and places it due south of the FL Panhandle. That means this ULL moves all the way from the Bahamas from when these runs were initialized (About an hour ago) to due south of the panhandle....a distance of about 400 miles. To due this, the ULL will need to have an average speed of 16 mph from this time till 3 AM EST Sunday (If my math is correct). Looking at the WV, that ULL is not going to move that far in this amount of time. Dean, at this point, should be starting to clear Haiti and making its move towards Jamaica. Even if the GFS run pans out, the distance between these two systems (Dean and the ULL) is narrowed further. At this point, Dean should be moving WNW and should have more of a northerly component then 12 hrs prior.
36 Hr: Moves the ULL another 200 miles in 12 hours (meaning that the ULL would need to average 16 mph....much more feasible). At this point, Dean would be over or near Jamaica, probably just passing it. The distance between the two holds steady. At this point, Dean should still be moving WNW. Oh and btw, Erin is STILL over N Texas.
48 Hr: ULL moves more, but thats not the important thing. This is the first time we see Dean's location according to the model. Notice its near the Eastern portions of N Cuba. According to the NHC track, Dean should be near or over Grand Cayman island. Not only is the GFS apparently moving this ULL too fast, its moving Dean to slow. This is the first time it becomes apparant that the GFS is out to lunch.
60 Hr: ULL is approaching the Lower Texas coast, Dean approaches Grand Cayman island. According to the NHC track, Dean should be nearing the Yucatan at this point. Again, the GFS is far too slow with Dean. Oh, and Erin is still there.


What does this mean? If the GFS were even right, Dean would be much further west in tandem with this ULL...so its incorrectly assessing the speeds of one, if not BOTH weather systems (Dean and the ULL).
Here is my analysis of how I think this situation plays out:

- 24 Hr -
I can't fathom the ULL moving that much in the next 24 hours, and it seems reasonable that by this time tomorrow the ULL over the Bahamas will be on the western Florida coast, not due south of the Panhandle. For this reason, Dean should begin to show a northerly component to his motion rather soon....and by tom morning Dean's due westward motion SHOULD be done with, and a heading of 285-295 should commence. This puts jamaica right in the crosshairs, and likely will suffer a direct strike from a Category 5 Hurricane Dean. Dean and the ULL should gain proximity, and Dean should begin being ventilated by the ULL and it should feel the weakeness it is producing.

- 48 Hr -
Dean should be approaching Grand Cayman Island, and the ULL should be somewhere south of MS. The proximity between the two should begin to lessen further, and at this point Dean might get sheared by the ULL, but I won't call for shearing of Dean just yet. At this point, Dean should be moving wnw at a heading of 295 or so due to the proximity to the ULL and the weakness it is producing. Also, Erin remains in N Texas and seems to be creating a weakness in the ridge over the SE US over central texas. These two weather systems in tandem, should produce a weakness sufficient enough to bring Dean just north of Cozumel and near the tip of the Yucatan peninsula. A strike on Cuba is not likely, but its more plausible to me then a strike near Belize. A path through the Yucatan Channel is plausible as well. I feel that Grand Cayman will encounter the eye of Dean, and Dean will likely be a Category 3 hurricane at this point (due to weakening because of Jamaica).

- 60 Hr -
By now, Dean should be entering the GOM. At this point in time, the ULL should be somewhere south of LA and approaching the TX coast. Dean should be right behind it, and at this point imo, Dean should be moving at a heading of 305-315 and should be feeling the weakness left in the ridge by not only the ULL, but Erin's remnants. This weakness should be sufficient enough to set Dean on a course for Texas. The exact landfall location is not very clear, but anywhere from Brownsville to Galveston looks likely. I can't see this moving anyhwere south of this area due to the poor timing that the GFS shows with the ULL and Dean (And even with this poor time it brings the storm near Brownsville. By this time, Dean will be about 24 hours from nearing the coast. At this time, my greatest risk for landfall in Texas is Matagorda Bay. It should be noted that the strength, and more importantly, the size of Dean could change this thinking. If Dean explodes to Katrina sized, the effects of the weakness would probably be more pronounced.



INTENSITY
Pretty straightforward for the next 24-48 Hours. Dean is going to become a monster....somewhere along the lines of 140 kt within the next day. Fluctations in intensity from that point will be caused by internal dynamics. It is possible that Dean becomes even stronger (150-160kt) as it is passing over high THCP and blazing SST's....add that in with a amazing upper air environment and Dean is set to become not only strong, but legendary. Jamaica will likely be facing the wrath of a true Category 5 cyclone, with winds on the order of 140-150 kts. Interaction with Haiti could alter Dean a bit, but I dont think it will approach it close enough to have any long term effects. Jamaica, quite possibly, will be totally destroyed by Dean, and loss of life in the DR/Haiti and Jamaica could reach 1000+. Very, very, very troubling scenario unfolding here....It should be noted that the last major hurricane to go over Jamaica was Gilbert (Cat3)....this will be far stronger....and subsequently, far more devastating. After Jamaica, Dean should weaken but still retain major hurricane status due too fast forward speed. After this, Dean should further strengthen (although interaction with the ULL could induce shear). Residents of the Grand Cayman should prepare for a major cane, and resident of the Yucatan should do the same. Intensity in the gulf is too far out to have much confidence, but a major strike is likely.



The GFS, despite its shift north, still is just not handling the important weather systems vital to steering Dean. The GFDL seems to have a MUCH better handle. If I were in Houston, Matagorda, Corpus, or Brownsville.....I would be making preparations. Preparations include: Gathering goods, gas, supplies. People in these areas also should prepare to evacuate. At this point, here are my percentages for strike:

Haiti/DR: 40% (So high because the H-force winds of Dean will still rake the southern shors)
Jamaica: 90%
Cozumel: 60%
Cancun: 75%
Isle of Youth: 50%
Caymans: 80%

These averages should be separate as they are FAR out.
Tampico: 20%
Brownsvile: 50%
Corpus: 70%
Houston: 50%


Folks......this is going to be terrble. Pray for those in Jamaica.

Very thoughtful post Normandy....I am in Austin, I have grave concerns for you all in Houston......

[Normandy]

And right on cue, Dean jogs NW and gains lattitude.

As of today, I'll be doing daily updates on Dean for those interested.

[LJR]

a few updates from the Jamaican Correspondents

Really really worried!
From: "Andre Marriott-Blake" <sean134 at msn.com>
Date: Fri, 17 Aug 2007 16:08:35 +0000

Greetings all,
First and foremost my prayers are with my fellow islanders already affected by Dean..hope its not too bad an you all can recover shortly.
I am Really worried about Jamaica and the approaching monster Dean. It reminds me too much of Gilbert and Ivan, the current track takes the eye of Dean over Jamaica starting in the early afternoon on Sunday.... it is now Friday meaning we have rougphly 1 and a half day or so to prepare for Dean and today its still business as usual in Kingson ..the mast majority of people are compacent and think that we will be spared again ( we all hope that ) but this worries me because the current forecast puts Dean at category 4 status on arrival ( stronger than Gilbert...same strength as Ivan). Mind you we were fairly well prepared for Ivan I recall schools were closed some 2 days befor the storm and people were taking it seriously and yet still though Ivan missed us damage was still considerable.... Dean on the other hand as I said is just over a day away yet stlll if one did not know that a storm was coming they would think its business as usual in the island as supermarkets are some what empty... Lets hope that Jamaicans take this Hurricane seriously and PREPARE AND EVACUATE WHEN ORDERS ARE GIVEN... lets not have a Jamaican Katrina story! I'l keep you updated. If i can be of some help to you , you are free to email me at sean134 at msn.com. Say a prayer for us! It works everytime.

Andre
_________________________________________________________



- Battered Down
From: dervon <reggaeweather at yahoo.com>
Date: Fri, 17 Aug 2007 20:14:33 -0700 (PDT)

Preparations went into high gear today, everyone was busy shopping or starting to bunker down in anticipation of mean dean which was the talk of the day, many businesses closed a bit earlier to allow employees time to get prepared as the government and disaster agencies met to finalize their emergency plans.
Jamaicans are no fools, we have learned how to prepare from two of the toughest hurricanes of the century Gilbert in 1988 and Ivan in 2004 and we are seasoned, hard boiled hurricane survivors and once again our survival skills are about to be tested to their limits, and i believe, truly believe that we will overcome once more. to all our affected neighbors dust yourselves off and prepare for the next one and all the others out there say a PRAYER for us.
I'll post a few pictures of my area after the storm and maybe once more tomorrow.
______________________________________________________


- YIKES
From: "Sue Morris" <sue.island at cwjamaica.com>
Date: Fri, 17 Aug 2007 20:35:21 -0500

Palmbeachpost.com is now posting a Cat 5 before dean reaches Jamaica

Heads up everyone

Sue M


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- Jamaicans are 100% ready for Dean
From: "George Scarlett" <george.scarlett at cwjamaica.com>
Date: Fri, 17 Aug 2007 20:33:42 -0500

An unscientific telephone poll just conducted by a local television station reveals that 100% of Jamaicans are taking Dean seriously. This was also reflected in the packed supermarkets and gas stations this evening.



The local disaster preparedness committees have been activated; all security and fire personnel have had their leaves cancelled to ensure maximum presence in the aftermath of the hurricane.



We just now need to hope that Dean shift further north and minimize its impact on our beloved island.



George

_____________________________________________________

- Jamaica hoping it will be a miss!
From: Rodman Monique <monique_rodman at yahoo.com>
Date: Fri, 17 Aug 2007 17:01:59 -0700 (PDT)

The supermarkets are sure to run out between today and
tomorrow as locals are getting ready for Dean. In
Montego Bay, bottled water is fast becoming a luxury
item and shelves are emptying quickly.

At about 1:00pm today, the skies started getting
really dark but up to this point not one drop of rain
was spotted in Montego Bay.

Fridays are normally busy in the city but today you
can understand why it is busier than normal. I
managed to beat most of the crowd as I left work
early, headed to the supermarket and gas station.

My fellow Jamaicans, my advice to you is to get as
much as you can as quickly as you can and be sure to
keep your phones charged and have an adequate amount
of cash just in case.

I'll make another posting tomorrow. Take care!


Monique

[Bgator]

Keep an eye on PR long range radar...You can see that the eye is moving northwest, at least on the radar... Most liekly just a wobble, but still gaining latitude.

[wxmann_91]

The 0745Z satellite just showed a slight jog north.

[Normandy]

No NW motion, Dean is just starting his projected WNW motion right now.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I see it to. With the fact that it has slowed down some. And if it turns back west-northwest or even jogs northwest I would say that is a sign that the high could be weaking.