CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
vaffie
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 898
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:11 pm
Location: Houston, Texas

Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11PM page 192) Discussions, Analysis

#7661 Postby vaffie » Sat Aug 18, 2007 6:09 am

windstorm99 wrote:Hurricanes dont travel in a straight line and for me personally the NHC has done a fantastic job so far on deans track.


No arguments there. Over the last hour (from 945Z to 1045Z) it has returned to a more wnw track, it seems, but rather than 275 that it had been going yesterday, it's now 292 degrees (.1N, .25W per hour). At that rate, it would pass to the north of Jamaica. We'll see if it continues.
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20036
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (5AM page 205) Discussions, Analysis

#7662 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 18, 2007 6:11 am

Last night I was claiming it was staying west, now it looks to be north of the track. I think I'll keep my mouth shut about where it's going. :lol:
0 likes   

User avatar
Weatherfreak14
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1383
Joined: Sat Sep 24, 2005 3:40 pm
Location: Beaufort, SC
Contact:

Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (5AM page 205) Discussions, Analysis

#7663 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 6:15 am

tolakram wrote:Last night I was claiming it was staying west, now it looks to be north of the track. I think I'll keep my mouth shut about where it's going. :lol:


Dont worry about it this is the place where you can put out an educated guess on where a hurricane can go, a hurricane never litens to a forcaster, forecasters have to liten to the hurricane. and DEAN has NO ears.lol
0 likes   

User avatar
Sabanic
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 683
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2007 7:01 am
Location: Mobile, AL
Contact:

Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (5AM page 205) Discussions, Analysis

#7664 Postby Sabanic » Sat Aug 18, 2007 6:15 am

It does definitely look like for the moment he has varied slightly from the b-line of West he had been on. Let's see how this plays out for the rest of the morning.
0 likes   

Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2777
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms
Contact:

Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (5AM page 205) Discussions, Analysis

#7665 Postby Frank P » Sat Aug 18, 2007 6:16 am

well last night it was traving pretty much west... over the early morning hours it picked up the expect northerly component which was forecasted... right now its a tad north of the projected forecast... as vaffie said if that trend continues then its possible that it could pass north of Jamaica... to early to tell... but unless something really drastic happens Jamaica is in deep trouble..
0 likes   

User avatar
Typhoon_Willie
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1042
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 3:19 pm
Location: Greenacres City, Florida

Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (5AM page 205) Discussions, Analysis

#7666 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Sat Aug 18, 2007 6:17 am

Things do look interesting for sure. We will see what happens regarding the wnw movement...
0 likes   

User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

#7667 Postby Normandy » Sat Aug 18, 2007 6:19 am

Taking another NW wobble on radar....

Also of note:
Movement of the eyewall could be suspect (Due to it rotating inside the outer eyewall) during an ERC....so we should take that into account as well.
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (5AM page 205) Discussions, Analysis

#7668 Postby Sanibel » Sat Aug 18, 2007 6:20 am

By eye it looks like he's in a flow south of the ridge periphery and ULL action. It will stay under any weakness gap that pulls it north for the time being. If you look with a sharp eye at the surface flow in front of Dean you'll see straight west and on to the next ridge west.

Jamaica.
0 likes   

User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4270
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

#7669 Postby abajan » Sat Aug 18, 2007 6:23 am

The eye going directly through central Jamaica would be a better scenario than the official projected track that takes it over the south of the island because the worst winds are to the right of track. :(
0 likes   

User avatar
Sabanic
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 683
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2007 7:01 am
Location: Mobile, AL
Contact:

Re:

#7670 Postby Sabanic » Sat Aug 18, 2007 6:26 am

abajan wrote:The eye going directly through central Jamaica would be a better scenario than the official projected track that takes it over the south of the island because the worst winds are to the right of track. :(


DEFINITELY would make a big difference
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146178
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models

#7671 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 18, 2007 6:29 am


WHXX04 KWBC 181126
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE DEAN 04L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 18

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 15.0 66.6 275./14.9
6 15.5 68.1 290./15.5
12 16.1 69.7 289./15.8
18 16.5 71.2 288./15.1
24 17.0 72.9 284./17.4
30 17.7 74.7 291./18.1
36 18.3 76.4 290./18.0
42 18.9 78.2 289./18.0
48 19.4 80.3 283./19.7
54 19.9 82.2 285./19.1
60 20.4 84.2 284./19.0
66 20.9 85.9 284./17.1
72 21.5 87.7 289./16.9
78 22.2 89.3 294./16.8
84 23.0 91.0 295./17.4
90 23.9 92.6 299./17.3
96 24.7 94.2 296./17.3
102 25.6 95.8 300./17.1
108 26.5 97.3 302./16.1
114 27.4 98.6 303./14.5
120 28.2 100.2 296./16.1
126 28.7 101.6 290./13.5



6z GFDL second landfall after makng the first one in NE Yucatan is near Corpus Christi.
0 likes   

User avatar
Starburst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 484
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:03 pm
Location: Beeville, TX
Contact:

Re: Hurricane DEAN Recon obs

#7672 Postby Starburst » Sat Aug 18, 2007 6:31 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 181121
AF304 0604A DEAN HDOB 05 20070818
111100 1659N 06603W 6967 03168 0077 +083 +064 116051 052 044 000 00
111130 1658N 06604W 6967 03167 0074 +086 +061 116053 054 043 002 00
111200 1657N 06606W 6968 03164 0075 +086 +060 115056 056 044 001 00
111230 1656N 06608W 6968 03164 0075 +085 +062 115056 056 043 002 00
111300 1655N 06610W 6967 03164 0074 +085 +062 116056 056 044 002 00
111330 1654N 06612W 6969 03159 0078 +080 +069 115058 059 043 004 00
111400 1653N 06614W 6964 03162 0081 +074 +074 113057 057 048 002 00
111430 1652N 06616W 6967 03159 0082 +073 +073 114058 059 046 004 00
111500 1651N 06618W 6964 03161 0074 +078 +078 117060 061 045 005 00
111530 1650N 06619W 6969 03153 0065 +084 +070 121059 060 045 006 00
111600 1649N 06621W 6969 03151 0065 +082 +078 120061 061 045 006 00
111630 1648N 06623W 6966 03153 0073 +074 +074 118060 062 044 006 00
111700 1647N 06625W 6967 03152 0070 +075 +075 117060 061 044 006 03
111730 1647N 06627W 6968 03148 0087 +061 +061 113065 065 048 008 03
111800 1646N 06629W 6971 03142 0094 +055 +055 108065 066 058 046 03
111830 1646N 06632W 6961 03152 0084 +060 +060 104058 062 057 045 03
111900 1646N 06634W 6978 03131 0059 +078 +078 123056 059 051 008 03
111930 1645N 06636W 6965 03150 0058 +079 +079 119053 057 049 048 03
112000 1644N 06637W 6960 03162 0072 +070 +070 112060 063 047 016 00
112030 1642N 06639W 6963 03151 0051 +085 +085 117061 062 046 007 00
$$

enroute to Dean
0 likes   

User avatar
Starburst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 484
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:03 pm
Location: Beeville, TX
Contact:

#7673 Postby Starburst » Sat Aug 18, 2007 6:33 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 181131
AF304 0604A DEAN HDOB 06 20070818
112100 1641N 06640W 6968 03145 0053 +082 +082 116064 066 043 007 00
112130 1640N 06641W 6963 03146 0055 +079 +079 111067 069 044 006 00
112200 1638N 06643W 6963 03145 0068 +066 +066 108071 075 044 006 00
112230 1637N 06644W 6973 03131 0052 +078 +078 108072 074 044 024 00
112300 1635N 06646W 6972 03134 9990 +057 +999 111071 076 045 042 05
112330 1634N 06647W 6966 03137 0069 +062 +062 111069 071 049 015 00
112400 1633N 06649W 6955 03146 9990 +061 +999 110066 068 048 020 01
112430 1631N 06650W 6968 03131 0061 +066 +066 113070 072 053 015 01
112500 1630N 06651W 6966 03139 0056 +066 +066 118068 071 053 015 05
112530 1629N 06653W 6959 03142 0050 +073 +073 117067 068 057 022 00
112600 1627N 06654W 6958 03143 9990 +064 +999 111063 065 058 021 01
112630 1626N 06656W 6971 03126 9990 +061 +999 108055 058 055 054 05
112700 1625N 06657W 6969 03129 0061 +063 +063 119064 065 054 017 00
112730 1623N 06658W 6967 03130 0050 +072 +072 120065 066 049 007 03
112800 1622N 06700W 6967 03126 0041 +076 +076 124063 064 051 006 00
112830 1621N 06701W 6966 03125 0031 +081 +081 125061 061 051 006 00
112900 1620N 06702W 6968 03119 0019 +086 +086 124061 062 050 005 00
112930 1618N 06704W 6967 03119 0021 +085 +085 119060 060 052 005 00
113000 1617N 06705W 6964 03122 0023 +082 +082 116059 059 052 006 00
113030 1616N 06706W 6972 03109 0012 +089 +089 119060 060 050 006 00
$$
0 likes   

TheShrimper
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 516
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2004 5:05 pm

Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (5AM page 205) Discussions, Analysis

#7674 Postby TheShrimper » Sat Aug 18, 2007 6:35 am

Sanibel, I do not think I would be looking at the surface flow in this case. If the ULL stays somewhat in place and elogates southwesterly, it may draw Dean pretty close to Western Haiti.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#7675 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Aug 18, 2007 6:36 am

Image

WOW!!!
0 likes   

User avatar
vaffie
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 898
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:11 pm
Location: Houston, Texas

Re: DEAN: Global Models=6z GFDL landfall near Corpus Christi

#7676 Postby vaffie » Sat Aug 18, 2007 6:36 am

As usual the GFDL is concerning. It seems to be the only model that has predicted correctly the last few hours of northerly movement. All the other models are south of where it is now. At the present rate it will hit the 6 hour target that the GFDL has for it if not go still north of it. It is also worth noting that if one examines the last round of GFS ensemble models (0Z), one finds that all of those that go north of Jamaica hit Texas and all the ones south hit Mexico. If the last two hours is the new trend, it will pass north of Jamaica. You can see them here. The mean ensemble hits Brownsville, but if you remove the three southerly outliers, you end up with Corpus Christi too.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/pan/t ... 4L.ens.gif
0 likes   

User avatar
Sabanic
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 683
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2007 7:01 am
Location: Mobile, AL
Contact:

Re: Global Models=6z GFDL second landfall near Corpus Christi

#7677 Postby Sabanic » Sat Aug 18, 2007 6:37 am

Good Morning to everyone as we begin another day of watching models, wobbles, projections, erc's . . . . etc.

And to think we'll be doing this with ole Dean for another week or so . . . :double:
0 likes   

Ed Mahmoud

Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (5AM page 205) Discussions, Analysis

#7678 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Aug 18, 2007 6:37 am

New GFDL dModel/dt, now near border, is definitelt working in Texas' favor. Every run past day a little farther South than one before.

108 26.5 97.3 302./16.1

In my umprofessional opinion, 95% chance Houston sees no adverse weather from Dean.


Can't say the same for coast from near Tampico to somewhere North of Corpus Christi, as even South of Border landfall will have some nasty weather North of center.
0 likes   

Ed Mahmoud

Re: Global Models=6z GFDL second landfall near Corpus Christi

#7679 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Aug 18, 2007 6:38 am

New GFDL dModel/dt, now near border, is definitely working in Texas' favor. Every run past day a little farther South than one before.



In my umprofessional opinion, 95% chance Houston sees no adverse weather from Dean.


Can't say the same for coast from near Tampico to somewhere North of Corpus Christi, as even South of Border landfall will have some nasty weather North of center.
0 likes   

User avatar
HollynLA
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 836
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:36 pm
Location: South Louisiana

Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (5AM page 205) Discussions, Analysis

#7680 Postby HollynLA » Sat Aug 18, 2007 6:39 am

I think if the northward component holds for a while, it may throw the models off.
0 likes   


Return to “2007”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests