CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Starburst]

000
URNT15 KNHC 181221
AF304 0604A DEAN HDOB 11 20070818
121100 1436N 06841W 6967 03096 9990 +088 +083 323034 035 034 005 00
121130 1434N 06843W 6969 03093 9989 +093 +069 323035 035 034 004 00
121200 1433N 06844W 6966 03101 9990 +095 +064 321032 033 033 004 00
121230 1432N 06845W 6965 03102 9994 +091 +072 322030 031 033 004 00
121300 1430N 06847W 6963 03113 0005 +088 +082 326031 031 034 005 00
121330 1429N 06848W 6967 03113 0007 +090 +088 328032 033 034 006 00
121400 1428N 06849W 6967 03116 0015 +088 +086 326033 034 037 016 00
121430 1426N 06850W 6964 03121 0032 +075 +075 328034 035 038 010 00
121500 1425N 06852W 6964 03125 0038 +073 +073 326031 032 038 010 00
121530 1424N 06853W 6969 03118 0029 +071 +071 331029 030 039 030 03
121600 1422N 06854W 6961 03130 9990 +055 +999 325027 029 043 018 01
121630 1421N 06856W 6967 03121 9990 +059 +999 319028 031 044 019 01
121700 1420N 06857W 6973 03119 0056 +060 +060 315024 026 043 018 01
121730 1418N 06858W 6970 03122 9990 +057 +999 320026 029 039 048 05
121800 1417N 06859W 6958 03139 0064 +060 +060 312028 030 036 010 03
121830 1416N 06901W 6967 03130 0073 +056 +056 315023 025 036 017 03
121900 1414N 06902W 6963 03135 0061 +063 +063 308024 025 034 018 00
121930 1413N 06903W 6969 03129 0045 +075 +075 305023 023 032 007 00
122000 1412N 06904W 6964 03135 0046 +077 +077 305022 022 031 007 00
122030 1411N 06906W 6967 03131 0043 +079 +079 301021 022 031 007 00
$$

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 12:21Z
Date: August 18, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 11
 
Time (Z) /  Coordinates /  Acft. Static Air Press. /  Acft. Geo. Hgt. /  Extrap. Sfc. Press. /  Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) /  Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind /  SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind /  SFMR Rain Rate
12:11:00 14.60N 68.68W 696.7 mb 3,096 m - From 323° (NW) at 34 kts (39.1 mph) 35 kts (~ 40.2 mph) 34 kts 5 mm/hr
12:11:30 14.57N 68.72W 696.9 mb 3,093 m 998.9 mb From 323° (NW) at 35 kts (40.2 mph) 35 kts (~ 40.2 mph) 34 kts 4 mm/hr
12:12:00 14.55N 68.73W 696.6 mb 3,101 m - From 321° (NW) at 32 kts (36.8 mph) 33 kts (~ 37.9 mph) 33 kts 4 mm/hr
12:12:30 14.53N 68.75W 696.5 mb 3,102 m 999.4 mb From 322° (NW) at 30 kts (34.5 mph) 31 kts (~ 35.6 mph) 33 kts 4 mm/hr
12:13:00 14.50N 68.78W 696.3 mb 3,113 m 1000.5 mb From 326° (NW/NNW) at 31 kts (35.6 mph) 31 kts (~ 35.6 mph) 34 kts 5 mm/hr
12:13:30 14.48N 68.80W 696.7 mb 3,113 m 1000.7 mb From 328° (NNW) at 32 kts (36.8 mph) 33 kts (~ 37.9 mph) 34 kts 6 mm/hr
12:14:00 14.47N 68.82W 696.7 mb 3,116 m 1001.5 mb From 326° (NW/NNW) at 33 kts (37.9 mph) 34 kts (~ 39.1 mph) 37 kts 16 mm/hr
12:14:30 14.43N 68.83W 696.4 mb 3,121 m 1003.2 mb From 328° (NNW) at 34 kts (39.1 mph) 35 kts (~ 40.2 mph) 38 kts 10 mm/hr
12:15:00 14.42N 68.87W 696.4 mb 3,125 m 1003.8 mb From 326° (NW/NNW) at 31 kts (35.6 mph) 32 kts (~ 36.8 mph) 38 kts 10 mm/hr
12:15:30 14.40N 68.88W 696.9 mb 3,118 m 1002.9 mb From 331° (NNW) at 29 kts (33.3 mph) 30 kts (~ 34.5 mph) 39 kts* 30 mm/hr*
12:16:00 14.37N 68.90W 696.1 mb 3,130 m - From 325° (NW) at 27 kts (31.0 mph) 29 kts (~ 33.3 mph) 43 kts 18 mm/hr
12:16:30 14.35N 68.93W 696.7 mb 3,121 m - From 319° (NW) at 28 kts (32.2 mph) 31 kts (~ 35.6 mph) 44 kts 19 mm/hr
12:17:00 14.33N 68.95W 697.3 mb 3,119 m 1005.6 mb From 315° (NW) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) 43 kts 18 mm/hr
12:17:30 14.30N 68.97W 697.0 mb 3,122 m - From 320° (NW) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 29 kts (~ 33.3 mph) 39 kts* 48 mm/hr*
12:18:00 14.28N 68.98W 695.8 mb 3,139 m 1006.4 mb From 312° (NW) at 28 kts (32.2 mph) 30 kts (~ 34.5 mph) 36 kts* 10 mm/hr*
12:18:30 14.27N 69.02W 696.7 mb 3,130 m 1007.3 mb From 315° (NW) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) 36 kts* 17 mm/hr*
12:19:00 14.23N 69.03W 696.3 mb 3,135 m 1006.1 mb From 308° (NW) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) 34 kts 18 mm/hr
12:19:30 14.22N 69.05W 696.9 mb 3,129 m 1004.5 mb From 305° (NW) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 23 kts (~ 26.4 mph) 32 kts 7 mm/hr
12:20:00 14.20N 69.07W 696.4 mb 3,135 m 1004.6 mb From 305° (NW) at 22 kts (25.3 mph) 22 kts (~ 25.3 mph) 31 kts 7 mm/hr
12:20:30 14.18N 69.10W 696.7 mb 3,131 m 1004.3 mb From 301° (WNW) at 21 kts (24.1 mph) 22 kts (~ 25.3 mph) 31 kts 7 mm/hr
At 12:11:00Z (first observation), the observation was 280 miles (451 km) to the SSE (163°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
At 12:20:30Z (last observation), the observation was 302 miles (486 km) to the S (170°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
 

 


[bob rulz]

The very latest visible frame on this looks like it took a decent jog to the west.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... tte=ir.pal

[HURAKAN]

Latest images.

[Javlin]

Dean looks to be cutting the box at a 40* angle at the moment to the NW lets see how long this last.I have to agree with Normandy if this guy goes N of Jamaica look for the models to trend N again but lets wait and see.

Do not see a jog to the W just a different picture,presentation,kinda hard to explain.The angle is probably more like a 30*-35* though not a 40*.

[caneman]

As usual the GFDL is concerning. It seems to be the only model that has predicted correctly the last few hours of northerly movement. All the other models are south of where it is now. At the present rate it will hit the 6 hour target that the GFDL has for it if not go still north of it. It is also worth noting that if one examines the last round of GFS ensemble models (0Z), one finds that all of those that go north of Jamaica hit Texas and all the ones south hit Mexico. If the last two hours is the new trend, it will pass north of Jamaica. You can see them here. The mean ensemble hits Brownsville, but if you remove the three southerly outliers, you end up with Corpus Christi too.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/pan/t ... 4L.ens.gif

Vaffie,

Great analysis. Yes the GFDL has wiggled from North to South, however, it is onto Dean as far as the short term. So, wherever it points for end run, I'm listening and watching. And I would suggest those who live where it is prediciting a hit, to take notice.

[la wave]

Weather like all of us is ever changing. I knew that Dean was going to track west as long as the dry air core was to the north and west of it. However, Dean is now a major hurricane and they create their own environments. I would be irresponsible to make any kind of prediction at this time. My ego is a lot less important then lives that could possibly be lost.

[KatDaddy]

All I can see is an overall NW motion currently as the eye is doing cycloidal loops which give the appearance of W and N jogs.

[mutley]

Weather like all of us is ever changing. I knew that Dean was going to track west as long as the dry air core was to the north and west of it. However, Dean is now a major hurricane and they create their own environments. I would be irresponsible to make any kind of prediction at this time. My ego is a lot less important then lives that could possibly be lost.

Oh, come on. Put up a disclaimer and take a stab at it.

[HouTXmetro]

We are still 5 to 6 days out. I have a feeling before it's all said and done the models will move a good deal to the right.

[TampaFl]

8:00 am position, appears to be moving more wnw to nw.

[Starburst]

000
URNT15 KNHC 181231
AF304 0604A DEAN HDOB 12 20070818
122100 1409N 06907W 6969 03131 0044 +080 +080 301020 020 030 007 00
122130 1408N 06908W 6963 03139 0048 +077 +077 306021 022 030 006 00
122200 1407N 06909W 6963 03138 0052 +075 +075 306020 020 999 999 03
122230 1405N 06908W 6965 03139 0061 +069 +069 300020 021 999 999 03
122300 1405N 06907W 6962 03148 0064 +071 +071 289019 020 021 071 03
122330 1406N 06905W 6967 03136 0056 +073 +073 282021 022 026 031 03
122400 1406N 06903W 6969 03132 0054 +073 +073 285023 023 033 009 00
122430 1406N 06901W 6966 03133 0045 +078 +078 281025 026 033 022 03
122500 1406N 06859W 6962 03137 0041 +079 +079 275029 031 034 008 00
122530 1405N 06857W 6969 03126 0041 +079 +079 264033 033 034 007 00
122600 1405N 06855W 6965 03131 0038 +080 +079 263034 034 034 007 00
122630 1405N 06853W 6968 03127 0039 +079 +079 262035 035 034 008 00
122700 1404N 06850W 6967 03127 0042 +075 +075 261034 034 034 008 00
122730 1404N 06848W 6967 03126 0043 +075 +075 263035 036 035 008 03
122800 1404N 06846W 6969 03124 0038 +079 +079 263035 035 036 008 00
122830 1403N 06844W 6965 03127 0036 +078 +078 262035 036 034 009 00
122900 1403N 06842W 6967 03126 0037 +080 +080 259034 034 036 008 00
122930 1403N 06840W 6966 03128 0035 +081 +081 263034 036 036 008 00
123000 1403N 06838W 6967 03127 0028 +088 +077 259036 037 036 006 00
123030 1402N 06836W 6967 03130 0028 +090 +069 257037 037 035 006 00
$$

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 12:31Z
Date: August 18, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 12
 
Time (Z) /  Coordinates /  Acft. Static Air Press. /  Acft. Geo. Hgt. /  Extrap. Sfc. Press. /  Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) /  Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind /  SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind /  SFMR Rain Rate
12:21:00 14.15N 69.12W 696.9 mb 3,131 m 1004.4 mb From 301° (WNW) at 20 kts (23.0 mph) 20 kts (~ 23.0 mph) 30 kts 7 mm/hr
12:21:30 14.13N 69.13W 696.3 mb 3,139 m 1004.8 mb From 306° (NW) at 21 kts (24.1 mph) 22 kts (~ 25.3 mph) 30 kts 6 mm/hr
12:22:00 14.12N 69.15W 696.3 mb 3,138 m 1005.2 mb From 306° (NW) at 20 kts (23.0 mph) 20 kts (~ 23.0 mph) - -
12:22:30 14.08N 69.13W 696.5 mb 3,139 m 1006.1 mb From 300° (WNW) at 20 kts (23.0 mph) 21 kts (~ 24.1 mph) - -
12:23:00 14.08N 69.12W 696.2 mb 3,148 m 1006.4 mb From 289° (WNW) at 19 kts (21.8 mph) 20 kts (~ 23.0 mph) 21 kts* 71 mm/hr*
12:23:30 14.10N 69.08W 696.7 mb 3,136 m 1005.6 mb From 282° (WNW) at 21 kts (24.1 mph) 22 kts (~ 25.3 mph) 26 kts* 31 mm/hr*
12:24:00 14.10N 69.05W 696.9 mb 3,132 m 1005.4 mb From 285° (WNW) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 23 kts (~ 26.4 mph) 33 kts 9 mm/hr
12:24:30 14.10N 69.02W 696.6 mb 3,133 m 1004.5 mb From 281° (W/WNW) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) 33 kts* 22 mm/hr*
12:25:00 14.10N 68.98W 696.2 mb 3,137 m 1004.1 mb From 275° (W) at 29 kts (33.3 mph) 31 kts (~ 35.6 mph) 34 kts 8 mm/hr
12:25:30 14.08N 68.95W 696.9 mb 3,126 m 1004.1 mb From 264° (W) at 33 kts (37.9 mph) 33 kts (~ 37.9 mph) 34 kts 7 mm/hr
12:26:00 14.08N 68.92W 696.5 mb 3,131 m 1003.8 mb From 263° (W) at 34 kts (39.1 mph) 34 kts (~ 39.1 mph) 34 kts 7 mm/hr
12:26:30 14.08N 68.88W 696.8 mb 3,127 m 1003.9 mb From 262° (W) at 35 kts (40.2 mph) 35 kts (~ 40.2 mph) 34 kts 8 mm/hr
12:27:00 14.07N 68.83W 696.7 mb 3,127 m 1004.2 mb From 261° (W) at 34 kts (39.1 mph) 34 kts (~ 39.1 mph) 34 kts 8 mm/hr
12:27:30 14.07N 68.80W 696.7 mb 3,126 m 1004.3 mb From 263° (W) at 35 kts (40.2 mph) 36 kts (~ 41.4 mph) 35 kts* 8 mm/hr*
12:28:00 14.07N 68.77W 696.9 mb 3,124 m 1003.8 mb From 263° (W) at 35 kts (40.2 mph) 35 kts (~ 40.2 mph) 36 kts 8 mm/hr
12:28:30 14.05N 68.73W 696.5 mb 3,127 m 1003.6 mb From 262° (W) at 35 kts (40.2 mph) 36 kts (~ 41.4 mph) 34 kts 9 mm/hr
12:29:00 14.05N 68.70W 696.7 mb 3,126 m 1003.7 mb From 259° (W) at 34 kts (39.1 mph) 34 kts (~ 39.1 mph) 36 kts 8 mm/hr
12:29:30 14.05N 68.67W 696.6 mb 3,128 m 1003.5 mb From 263° (W) at 34 kts (39.1 mph) 36 kts (~ 41.4 mph) 36 kts 8 mm/hr
12:30:00 14.05N 68.63W 696.7 mb 3,127 m 1002.8 mb From 259° (W) at 36 kts (41.4 mph) 37 kts (~ 42.5 mph) 36 kts 6 mm/hr
12:30:30 14.03N 68.60W 696.7 mb 3,130 m 1002.8 mb From 257° (WSW) at 37 kts (42.5 mph) 37 kts (~ 42.5 mph) 35 kts 6 mm/hr
At 12:21:00Z (first observation), the observation was 304 miles (489 km) to the S (170°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
At 12:30:30Z (last observation), the observation was 319 miles (514 km) to the SSE (164°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. 

[Thunder44]

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1220 UTC SAT AUG 18 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEAN (AL042007) 20070818 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070818 1200 070819 0000 070819 1200 070820 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.4N 67.9W 16.3N 70.9W 17.3N 74.4W 18.5N 77.7W
BAMD 15.4N 67.9W 16.5N 70.9W 17.3N 74.0W 18.2N 77.1W
BAMM 15.4N 67.9W 16.5N 71.1W 17.3N 74.7W 18.3N 78.1W
LBAR 15.4N 67.9W 16.3N 70.8W 17.2N 74.1W 18.1N 77.6W
SHIP 130KTS 132KTS 135KTS 140KTS
DSHP 130KTS 132KTS 135KTS 131KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070820 1200 070821 1200 070822 1200 070823 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.4N 81.0W 21.8N 88.1W 24.5N 94.6W 27.1N 100.3W
BAMD 18.9N 80.2W 20.3N 86.7W 22.3N 92.8W 24.6N 98.7W
BAMM 19.2N 81.5W 21.2N 88.5W 23.9N 94.9W 26.9N 100.9W
LBAR 19.0N 81.2W 21.3N 88.9W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 140KTS 138KTS 129KTS 107KTS
DSHP 132KTS 101KTS 92KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.4N LONCUR = 67.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 14.9N LONM12 = 65.1W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 14.4N LONM24 = 61.7W
WNDCUR = 130KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 125KT
CENPRS = 924MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 180NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 180NM

$$
NNNN

12z models initialize with winds still of 130kts and a pressure of 924mb and it' moving at 280 degress at 14kts, which is just north of due west but NOT WNW.

[robbielyn]

holy cow for people looking at the se fl ull should check out the ull further east into the atlantic it is huge and it is touching dean maybe helping it stay west for the time being once it gets away from it then the ull near fl probably will pick it up toward the north some.

Disclaimer. I am purely an amateur just making an amateur observation. So take it with a grain of salt please.

[robbielyn]

8:00 am position, appears to be moving more wnw to nw.

If it continues in that direction poor haiti and dr but the mountains could tear it up some

[Derek Ortt]

jamaica will need a Hurricane Warning at 11 A.M.

Concerned about Haiti with the expanding size. It is likely they will experience hurricane conditions, probably overall similar to what they received in Gilbert

[Sambucol]

We are still 5 to 6 days out. I have a feeling before it's all said and done the models will move a good deal to the right.

Why do you feel the models will move a good deal to the right?

[jhamps10]

man Dean is looking very beautiful this morning. And also scary for the Hisponola and Jamaica areas. I am looking at a sat loop and all I can say is, that Jamaica could be spared the dirty side of this, as unless it starts turning back to the west soon, it will go north of the island. Which would be BAD news for the Texas coast.

Should that happen, expect changes in the model tracks north, espically the southern outlyers. Of course we will have a lot of time to watch this, but if you live along the Texas coast, I would go ahead and prepare for a major hurricane. Besides should you not need it now, you may need it someother time this season.



Edit reason, correcting spelling.

[tropicsgal05]

I'm here in the Florida Panhandle and my daughter stopped to get gas in her car yesterday, said alot of people filling up with gas. I think alot of people are taking Dean seriously.

[Derek Ortt]

its not going west... on this heading, it would crash right into Port Au Prince and kill tens of thousands... I think I'd take the US hit in comparison

[miamicanes177]

Jamaica is the benchmark. You don't even have to look at models anymore. If it crosses north of Jamaica then lookout Texas. South of Jamaica...viva la rassa!