CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Air Force Met]

AM; I'm just waking up......................in your "personal" opinion................how far right?

I could see them eventually swinging as far right as the middle or upper Texas coast.

Everybody on here that keeps saying SETX and LA is safe needs to take a STEP BACK and do some remembering back to 2005 to Rita. At one point the models were in decent agreement with a landfall south of the border...and that is where the NHC had it pointed.

And the rest is history...

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/%7Evig ... 091812.png

[Starburst]

000
URNT15 KNHC 181311
AF304 0604A DEAN HDOB 16 20070818
130100 1423N 06717W 6961 03136 0065 +059 +059 197046 051 041 021 05
130130 1424N 06719W 6995 03094 0059 +058 +058 199047 051 047 037 05
130200 1426N 06720W 6955 03141 0045 +074 +074 199047 049 040 026 03
130230 1427N 06722W 6969 03124 0035 +080 +080 200048 049 040 007 00
130300 1428N 06723W 6965 03127 0030 +083 +083 206048 050 040 008 00
130330 1430N 06724W 6967 03124 0027 +084 +084 202052 052 041 006 00
130400 1431N 06726W 6967 03121 0024 +083 +083 201051 052 039 005 00
130430 1433N 06727W 6967 03119 0021 +085 +085 201050 051 040 006 00
130500 1434N 06728W 6967 03119 0025 +081 +081 201048 048 042 007 00
130530 1436N 06729W 6967 03115 0024 +079 +079 201048 049 042 007 00
130600 1437N 06731W 6967 03112 0021 +079 +079 201049 050 043 007 00
130630 1439N 06732W 6967 03110 0008 +086 +086 201051 052 043 009 00
130700 1441N 06733W 6967 03108 0007 +085 +085 203050 051 044 006 00
130730 1442N 06734W 6966 03107 0004 +085 +085 202053 054 044 007 00
130800 1444N 06736W 6965 03103 0001 +085 +085 203051 052 044 007 00
130830 1445N 06737W 6966 03101 9996 +087 +087 205049 049 045 007 00
130900 1447N 06738W 6967 03097 9998 +079 +079 205052 052 046 051 03
130930 1448N 06739W 6967 03093 9987 +089 +089 206052 053 046 006 00
131000 1450N 06740W 6967 03091 9986 +087 +087 203054 055 050 038 03
131030 1452N 06742W 6966 03091 9991 +073 +073 207056 058 049 044 05
$$

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 13:11Z
Date: August 18, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 16
 
Time (Z) /  Coordinates /  Acft. Static Air Press. /  Acft. Geo. Hgt. /  Extrap. Sfc. Press. /  Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) /  Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind /  SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind /  SFMR Rain Rate
13:01:00 14.38N 67.28W 696.1 mb 3,136 m 1006.5 mb From 197° (SSW) at 46 kts (52.9 mph) 51 kts (~ 58.6 mph) 41 kts* 21 mm/hr*
13:01:30 14.40N 67.32W 699.5 mb 3,094 m 1005.9 mb From 199° (SSW) at 47 kts (54.0 mph) 51 kts (~ 58.6 mph) 47 kts* 37 mm/hr*
13:02:00 14.43N 67.33W 695.5 mb 3,141 m 1004.5 mb From 199° (SSW) at 47 kts (54.0 mph) 49 kts (~ 56.3 mph) 40 kts* 26 mm/hr*
13:02:30 14.45N 67.37W 696.9 mb 3,124 m 1003.5 mb From 200° (SSW) at 48 kts (55.2 mph) 49 kts (~ 56.3 mph) 40 kts 7 mm/hr
13:03:00 14.47N 67.38W 696.5 mb 3,127 m 1003.0 mb From 206° (SSW) at 48 kts (55.2 mph) 50 kts (~ 57.5 mph) 40 kts 8 mm/hr
13:03:30 14.50N 67.40W 696.7 mb 3,124 m 1002.7 mb From 202° (SSW) at 52 kts (59.8 mph) 52 kts (~ 59.8 mph) 41 kts 6 mm/hr
13:04:00 14.52N 67.43W 696.7 mb 3,121 m 1002.4 mb From 201° (SSW) at 51 kts (58.6 mph) 52 kts (~ 59.8 mph) 39 kts 5 mm/hr
13:04:30 14.55N 67.45W 696.7 mb 3,119 m 1002.1 mb From 201° (SSW) at 50 kts (57.5 mph) 51 kts (~ 58.6 mph) 40 kts 6 mm/hr
13:05:00 14.57N 67.47W 696.7 mb 3,119 m 1002.5 mb From 201° (SSW) at 48 kts (55.2 mph) 48 kts (~ 55.2 mph) 42 kts 7 mm/hr
13:05:30 14.60N 67.48W 696.7 mb 3,115 m 1002.4 mb From 201° (SSW) at 48 kts (55.2 mph) 49 kts (~ 56.3 mph) 42 kts 7 mm/hr
13:06:00 14.62N 67.52W 696.7 mb 3,112 m 1002.1 mb From 201° (SSW) at 49 kts (56.3 mph) 50 kts (~ 57.5 mph) 43 kts 7 mm/hr
13:06:30 14.65N 67.53W 696.7 mb 3,110 m 1000.8 mb From 201° (SSW) at 51 kts (58.6 mph) 52 kts (~ 59.8 mph) 43 kts 9 mm/hr
13:07:00 14.68N 67.55W 696.7 mb 3,108 m 1000.7 mb From 203° (SSW) at 50 kts (57.5 mph) 51 kts (~ 58.6 mph) 44 kts 6 mm/hr
13:07:30 14.70N 67.57W 696.6 mb 3,107 m 1000.4 mb From 202° (SSW) at 53 kts (60.9 mph) 54 kts (~ 62.1 mph) 44 kts 7 mm/hr
13:08:00 14.73N 67.60W 696.5 mb 3,103 m 1000.1 mb From 203° (SSW) at 51 kts (58.6 mph) 52 kts (~ 59.8 mph) 44 kts 7 mm/hr
13:08:30 14.75N 67.62W 696.6 mb 3,101 m 999.6 mb From 205° (SSW) at 49 kts (56.3 mph) 49 kts (~ 56.3 mph) 45 kts 7 mm/hr
13:09:00 14.78N 67.63W 696.7 mb 3,097 m 999.8 mb From 205° (SSW) at 52 kts (59.8 mph) 52 kts (~ 59.8 mph) 46 kts* 51 mm/hr*
13:09:30 14.80N 67.65W 696.7 mb 3,093 m 998.7 mb From 206° (SSW) at 52 kts (59.8 mph) 53 kts (~ 60.9 mph) 46 kts 6 mm/hr
13:10:00 14.83N 67.67W 696.7 mb 3,091 m 998.6 mb From 203° (SSW) at 54 kts (62.1 mph) 55 kts (~ 63.2 mph) 50 kts* 38 mm/hr*
13:10:30 14.87N 67.70W 696.6 mb 3,091 m 999.1 mb From 207° (SSW) at 56 kts (64.4 mph) 58 kts (~ 66.7 mph) 49 kts* 44 mm/hr*
At 13:01:00Z (first observation), the observation was 290 miles (467 km) to the SSW (196°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 13:10:30Z (last observation), the observation was 268 miles (431 km) to the SSW (204°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

[cheezyWXguy]

I've had that impression the entire time this thing has neared the islands. I have been feeling that the climo more or less would kick in. I am just not good with figuring out WHEN with synoptics. I have to think some of you pros and experienced weather folks here had the same feeling, but there was nothing really solid to point at given the clustering of models. I hope that the model agreement has not given folks to the right of the tracks a false sense of security. We have seen storms veer off 3 day tracks before and always off of 5 day tracks. Usually to the right.

Climatology is not a factor. You cant just say somethings going to happen because of climatology. Deans track depends on the strength and position of the high and the ULL to Dean's north

[Air Force Met]

What it will do is just keep a constant weakness over Texas...and thus the upper low over FL won't go as far north as originally progged. The combo of the two upper lows impact Dean's track 100%...becaue they will determine how much of the ridge builds back in.

AFMet: Meaning, I assume, a track further to the right may be possible, like the GFS ensembles are hinting at??

Thx

Yes. And if you look at the ensembles...all but 3 of them are to the right of the operational run of the GFS.

[la wave]

This site is really good for tropical discussions. However, I think that it is very important that all professional meteorogists who are on this site give their names, degree and university that they attended. Belonging to the AMS means nothing. Hey, anyone can claim to be a professional meteorogist without credentials. A lot of people go by what the professionals say and if they are not, big lawsuits againt them and the website. These credentials should be available to all members of this site. Thank you

[Jagno]

Ben and Caneman; You are right. When I woke up this am the first thing I see is that some where stating for fact that this was a done deal to hit Mex/Corpus.......all based on one particular model. We still have alot of time and changes going on that could affect this track. Thanks!

lawave; I think they were all thoroughly checked out before being issued the met title???

[Eyewall]

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN PASS WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. AT
18/1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 67.9 WEST OR ABOUT 615 MILES...
990 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 250
MILES...400 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. DEAN IS MOVING WEST 15 KT WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS NEAR 150 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB. EYE DIAMETER IS 15
NM. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR MAJOR HURRICANE. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC OR THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS INCLUDING THE MOST RECENT
WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. ALL
INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN
66W-66W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 65W-70W. A SRN FEEDER BAND HAS SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN
61W-64W.

Just a typo??

[Air Force Met]

This site is really good for tropical discussions. However, I think that it is very important that all professional meteorogists who are on this site give their names, degree and university that they attended. Belonging to the AMS means nothing. Hey, anyone can claim to be a professional meteorogist without credentials. A lot of people go by what the professionals say and if they are not, big lawsuits againt them and the website. These credentials should be available to all members of this site. Thank you

So I guess you are not going to answer my question about what you meant by a dry air something or another.

As far as credentials...the board checks us out before THEY (not us) place the pro met sign by our name...you don't need to worry about that.

[O Town]

Before they get their title on here they have to show their credentials to the owners of the board here.
They just don't go handing out titles to anyone who wants one.
And AFM is one of our best.

[caneman]

CLimatology can most certainlly play a factor. If at a particliar time of year and a particular movement hasn't been observed, then you would say that this or that would have a small chance of occurring. Now of course that wouldn't be 0%, however, you still look at percentages.

[Chacor]

This site is really good for tropical discussions. However, I think that it is very important that all professional meteorogists who are on this site give their names, degree and university that they attended. Belonging to the AMS means nothing. Hey, anyone can claim to be a professional meteorogist without credentials. A lot of people go by what the professionals say and if they are not, big lawsuits againt them and the website. These credentials should be available to all members of this site. Thank you

Go find some place else to troll, please, there are more important things at hand here.

[caneman]

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN PASS WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. AT
18/1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 67.9 WEST OR ABOUT 615 MILES...
990 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 250
MILES...400 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. DEAN IS MOVING WEST 15 KT WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS NEAR 150 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB. EYE DIAMETER IS 15
NM. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR MAJOR HURRICANE. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC OR THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS INCLUDING THE MOST RECENT
WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. ALL
INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN
66W-66W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 65W-70W. A SRN FEEDER BAND HAS SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN
61W-64W.

Just a typo??

Yes incorrect, has gone .3N and .6West since the 5:00 Adv. that is a WNW motion.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I've had that impression the entire time this thing has neared the islands. I have been feeling that the climo more or less would kick in. I am just not good with figuring out WHEN with synoptics. I have to think some of you pros and experienced weather folks here had the same feeling, but there was nothing really solid to point at given the clustering of models. I hope that the model agreement has not given folks to the right of the tracks a false sense of security. We have seen storms veer off 3 day tracks before and always off of 5 day tracks. Usually to the right.

Climatology is not a factor. You cant just say somethings going to happen because of climatology. Deans track depends on the strength and position of the high and the ULL to Dean's north

My point here IS the ULL and addtionally the toughiness progged http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day3nav_pre.html
I have been dubious of the ridge remaining solid for a week+ . We have seen the ridging in place for while and watching Dean catch up to the ULL. The climo is a factor in the probabilities of how the features we are talking about behave over time.

[Chacor]

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN PASS WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. AT
18/1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 67.9 WEST OR ABOUT 615 MILES...
990 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 250
MILES...400 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. DEAN IS MOVING WEST 15 KT WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS NEAR 150 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB <snip>

Just a typo??

Yes incorrect, has gone .3N and .6West since the 5:00 Adv. that is a WNW motion.

I think (s)he means the wind speed... 150 mph not 150 kts.

[Air Force Met]

Yes incorrect, has gone .3N and .6West since the 5:00 Adv. that is a WNW motion.

Maybe they also meant sustained near 150 kts. That's 170 mph...not 150.

[Vigilant]

My sister lives in Santo Domingo, she is aware of the danger, and now with these WNW movement, she already activated her emergency plan.

[jasons2k]

As posted in the GR3 thread...as expected he's WNW of the marker I placed last night.

The wobbles do correct themselves over the long haul:



AFM - thanks for your post. Unfortunately, yes, as the models correct themselves with long-track systems, it is usually to the right. I think anyone west of 90W needs to pay very close attention.

[Windtalker2]

This site is really good for tropical discussions. However, I think that it is very important that all professional meteorogists who are on this site give their names, degree and university that they attended. Belonging to the AMS means nothing. Hey, anyone can claim to be a professional meteorogist without credentials. A lot of people go by what the professionals say and if they are not, big lawsuits againt them and the website. These credentials should be available to all members of this site. Thank you

So I guess you are not going to answer my question about what you meant by a dry air something or another.

As far as credentials...the board checks us out before THEY (not us) place the pro met sign by our name...you don't need to worry about that.

Air Force Met, Let me be the 1st to say that I have been observing your posts here for a long time and have always took them as professional decisions. You have always shown great respect for everyone here , even those that choose to cut you down for opinions not of their liking. I respect you and your professionalism. Keep up the good work. I'm a big fan.

[Eyewall]

im a guy
and yea thats what i thought both the direction and wind speed were wrong.
but i think that the NHC will stick with west untill they are sure it doesnt wobble back to the south.

[wxwatcher91]

150kts = 172.5mph which rounds up to 175mph, but I definitely think that is a typo (should be 150mph)