CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

Re:

#7821 Postby Air Force Met » Sat Aug 18, 2007 8:40 am

Normandy wrote:I think people need to realize that yesterday's westward motion was NOT a wobble...it was a sustained motion due to its interaction with the ridge.

Much the same, this WNW motion is in response to the interaction with the weakness on the edge of the ridge. Folks this isnt bending back W again.


Correct. There was a nosing ridge out in front of dean that was a result of Dean closing in on the upper low. As he closed the gap...that ridge out ahead of him dissipated. Now he can more easily exploit the weakness ahead of him created by the upper low.
0 likes   

User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3664
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (8AM page 208) Discussions, Analysis

#7822 Postby drezee » Sat Aug 18, 2007 8:41 am

seems like the pressure has risen a bit from the URNT15...wait for the vortex. The upper low is the key! Also shows a dual maxima structure. Two separate wind maxes in and out of the eye. eyewall 120kts secondary 100 kts
0 likes   

User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

Re: Hurricane Dean Recon obs

#7823 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 8:42 am

629
URNT15 KNHC 181339
AF304 0604A DEAN HDOB 18 20070818
132100 1523N 06808W 6962 02764 9572 +128 +086 216109 112 094 002 00
132130 1524N 06809W 6947 02709 9504 +119 +119 220114 118 103 008 03
132200 1526N 06810W 6995 02578 9405 +137 +137 217085 091 098 011 03
132230 1527N 06811W 6963 02560 9326 +160 +134 214061 072 076 007 00
132300 1527N 06813W 6969 02522 9279 +175 +127 209027 036 051 003 00
132330 1528N 06815W 6973 02505 9268 +176 +124 205001 010 026 006 00
132400 1529N 06816W 6967 02519 9271 +181 +116 017025 036 032 006 03
132430 1530N 06818W 6975 02530 9298 +174 +125 024050 059 048 007 00
132500 1531N 06819W 6964 02575 9352 +151 +134 024077 082 086 023 03
132530 1532N 06820W 6983 02586 9429 +106 +106 029091 094 093 022 05
132600 1533N 06821W 6939 02693 9459 +132 +118 033104 111 099 028 00
132630 1534N 06822W 6978 02695 9507 +138 +117 039110 111 093 022 00
132700 1535N 06823W 6962 02758 9560 +133 +121 045104 107 093 049 03
132730 1536N 06824W 6975 02785 9626 +114 +114 052105 107 090 041 03
132800 1537N 06826W 6961 02842 9689 +097 +097 058107 109 088 005 00
132830 1539N 06827W 6965 02868 9740 +086 +086 057102 106 086 005 00
132900 1540N 06828W 6961 02904 9747 +104 +104 058094 096 084 004 00
132930 1541N 06829W 6968 02918 9771 +105 +105 061089 091 084 004 00
133000 1543N 06831W 6964 02943 9800 +101 +101 062086 088 081 006 00
133030 1544N 06832W 6971 02954 9833 +090 +090 057083 084 078 024 00
$$

118kts max FL wind in SE Quad, and they just made a pass over the eye. Extrap pressure has come up to 926.8mb
0 likes   

User avatar
Cookiely
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3211
Age: 74
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 7:31 am
Location: Tampa, Florida

Re: Re:

#7824 Postby Cookiely » Sat Aug 18, 2007 8:43 am

Windtalker2 wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Image

Image

Looking its best so far.

Wouldn't it be something if the models were all wrong and Dean ended up crossing the eastern part of Cuba into the Florida Straits?

No it would not be "SOMETHING" whatever that means.
0 likes   

User avatar
Starburst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 484
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:03 pm
Location: Beeville, TX
Contact:

Re: Hurricane Dean Recon obs

#7825 Postby Starburst » Sat Aug 18, 2007 8:44 am

Code: Select all

: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 13:39Z
Date: August 18, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 18
 
Time (Z) /  Coordinates /  Acft. Static Air Press. /  Acft. Geo. Hgt. /  Extrap. Sfc. Press. /  Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) /  Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind /  SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind /  SFMR Rain Rate
13:21:00 15.38N 68.13W 696.2 mb 2,764 m 957.2 mb From 216° (SW) at 109 kts (125.3 mph) 112 kts (~ 128.8 mph) 94 kts 2 mm/hr
13:21:30 15.40N 68.15W 694.7 mb 2,709 m 950.4 mb From 220° (SW) at 114 kts (131.1 mph) 118 kts (~ 135.7 mph) 103 kts* 8 mm/hr*
13:22:00 15.43N 68.17W 699.5 mb 2,578 m 940.5 mb From 217° (SW) at 85 kts (97.7 mph) 91 kts (~ 104.6 mph) 98 kts* 11 mm/hr*
13:22:30 15.45N 68.18W 696.3 mb 2,560 m 932.6 mb From 214° (SW) at 61 kts (70.1 mph) 72 kts (~ 82.8 mph) 76 kts 7 mm/hr
13:23:00 15.45N 68.22W 696.9 mb 2,522 m 927.9 mb From 209° (SSW) at 27 kts (31.0 mph) 36 kts (~ 41.4 mph) 51 kts 3 mm/hr
13:23:30 15.47N 68.25W 697.3 mb 2,505 m 926.8 mb From 205° (SSW) at 1 kts (1.1 mph) 10 kts (~ 11.5 mph) 26 kts 6 mm/hr
13:24:00 15.48N 68.27W 696.7 mb 2,519 m 927.1 mb From 17° (NNE) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 36 kts (~ 41.4 mph) 32 kts* 6 mm/hr*
13:24:30 15.50N 68.30W 697.5 mb 2,530 m 929.8 mb From 24° (NNE) at 50 kts (57.5 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 48 kts 7 mm/hr
13:25:00 15.52N 68.32W 696.4 mb 2,575 m 935.2 mb From 24° (NNE) at 77 kts (88.5 mph) 82 kts (~ 94.3 mph) 86 kts* 23 mm/hr*
13:25:30 15.53N 68.33W 698.3 mb 2,586 m 942.9 mb From 29° (NNE) at 91 kts (104.6 mph) 94 kts (~ 108.1 mph) 93 kts* 22 mm/hr*
13:26:00 15.55N 68.35W 693.9 mb 2,693 m 945.9 mb From 33° (NNE/NE) at 104 kts (119.6 mph) 111 kts (~ 127.6 mph) 99 kts 28 mm/hr
13:26:30 15.57N 68.37W 697.8 mb 2,695 m 950.7 mb From 39° (NE) at 110 kts (126.5 mph) 111 kts (~ 127.6 mph) 93 kts 22 mm/hr
13:27:00 15.58N 68.38W 696.2 mb 2,758 m 956.0 mb From 45° (NE) at 104 kts (119.6 mph) 107 kts (~ 123.0 mph) 93 kts* 49 mm/hr*
13:27:30 15.60N 68.40W 697.5 mb 2,785 m 962.6 mb From 52° (NE) at 105 kts (120.7 mph) 107 kts (~ 123.0 mph) 90 kts* 41 mm/hr*
13:28:00 15.62N 68.43W 696.1 mb 2,842 m 968.9 mb From 58° (ENE) at 107 kts (123.0 mph) 109 kts (~ 125.3 mph) 88 kts 5 mm/hr
13:28:30 15.65N 68.45W 696.5 mb 2,868 m 974.0 mb From 57° (ENE) at 102 kts (117.3 mph) 106 kts (~ 121.9 mph) 86 kts 5 mm/hr
13:29:00 15.67N 68.47W 696.1 mb 2,904 m 974.7 mb From 58° (ENE) at 94 kts (108.1 mph) 96 kts (~ 110.4 mph) 84 kts 4 mm/hr
13:29:30 15.68N 68.48W 696.8 mb 2,918 m 977.1 mb From 61° (ENE) at 89 kts (102.3 mph) 91 kts (~ 104.6 mph) 84 kts 4 mm/hr
13:30:00 15.72N 68.52W 696.4 mb 2,943 m 980.0 mb From 62° (ENE) at 86 kts (98.9 mph) 88 kts (~ 101.2 mph) 81 kts 6 mm/hr
13:30:30 15.73N 68.53W 697.1 mb 2,954 m 983.3 mb From 57° (ENE) at 83 kts (95.4 mph) 84 kts (~ 96.6 mph) 78 kts 24 mm/hr
At 13:21:00Z (first observation), the observation was 244 miles (393 km) to the SSE (151°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
At 13:30:30Z (last observation), the observation was 210 miles (339 km) to the SSE (154°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
0 likes   

User avatar
wx247
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14279
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 10:35 pm
Location: Monett, Missouri
Contact:

#7826 Postby wx247 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 8:45 am

MSNBC Met. Gary Archibald just mentioned that he believes the models will be shifting to the right soon... just like we have been discussing this morning. Thought I would pass that along.
0 likes   

User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

Re: Hurricane Dean Recon obs=Vortex Data Message Shortly

#7827 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 8:46 am

000
URNT12 KNHC 181340
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 18/13:23:30Z
B. 15 deg 28 min N
068 deg 14 min W
C. NA mb 2475 m
D. 102 kt
E. 122 deg 006 nm
F. 220 deg 117 kt
G. 125 deg 007 nm
H. 929 mb
I. 11 C/ 3046 m
J. 18 C/ 3045 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C12
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0604A DEAN OB 09
MAX FL WIND 145 KT NE QUAD 11:48:40 Z
RADAR PRESENTATION EXCELLENT
0 likes   

User avatar
jrod
Military Member
Military Member
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jun 17, 2005 1:22 pm
Location: jacksonville, fl

Re: Re:

#7828 Postby jrod » Sat Aug 18, 2007 8:47 am

Windtalker2 wrote:
Wouldn't it be something if the models were all wrong and Dean ended up crossing the eastern part of Cuba into the Florida Straits?


Though highly unlikely, that would be a nighmare especially if it did not weaken significantly over Cuba. They keys would not have time to evacuate and would be riding it out, or much worse, being stuck on US 1.
0 likes   

la wave
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 26
Joined: Sat Jul 07, 2007 5:58 pm

#7829 Postby la wave » Sat Aug 18, 2007 8:48 am

AFM, I have never had any problems with you. Your forecasts have been right on. I trust that you have a B.S. in Meteorology and that you have been in the USAF for many years. Others, who call themselves professional meteorologists I am not sure about. I was attacked earlier last night by a person who said that he was a "professional meteorologist" who didn't believe in what I had to say about dry air cores and how they influence tc tracks. He said that I didn't know what I was talking about. For the past 6 years, I nailed tracks for all tcs except Katrina and Rita. Please reference LSU ESL website, research,Martin,2000,abstract for further details. Meteorology is not only about science and art, but it is also about saving lives. I gave an honest opinion and this guy attacked me. I did not appreciate his attack.
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

Re: Hurricane Dean Forecasts in AF

#7830 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Aug 18, 2007 8:48 am

0 likes   

User avatar
Windtalker2
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 48
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Jun 19, 2007 6:28 am
Location: Davie Florida

Re: Re:

#7831 Postby Windtalker2 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 8:48 am

Cookiely wrote:
Windtalker2 wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Image

Image

Looking its best so far.

Wouldn't it be something if the models were all wrong and Dean ended up crossing the eastern part of Cuba into the Florida Straits?

No it would not be "SOMETHING" whatever that means.

I was not saying that as in, "i want to see it happen" but as in "weather patterns change quickly and if the models do not have those changes imputted into their systems, hence they are all wrong" please don't assume it has another meaning. Thanks :oops:
Last edited by Windtalker2 on Sat Aug 18, 2007 8:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
robbielyn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1299
Joined: Wed May 07, 2003 9:45 am
Location: brooksville, fl

#7832 Postby robbielyn » Sat Aug 18, 2007 8:48 am

Truth be told when they say fl is out of the question that is when I get worried because most of the time when they fl it doesn't hit fl When it is within the three day cone that fl is def out of the question, then I will relax a little more. I at this point in time not feeling like it will but to completely 100% rule it out, no I am only 70-80% confident right now of it missing fl so I am not anxious nor am i complacent, just in the middle I guess
0 likes   

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8247
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (8AM page 208) Discussions, Analysis

#7833 Postby jasons2k » Sat Aug 18, 2007 8:49 am

sphelps8681 wrote:Please help me understand. It seems as though the weather channel mets don't have the same theory regarding dean landfall. Based on what I have been reading the models will start to change and start moving right, if it is a correct assumption that dean passes north of jam. Just now on the weather channel the guy said the models were starting to move more to the left with a Mexico hit.

I am just concerned because I live in Lumberton, Tx which is north of Beaumont. I was here when Rita hit and don't want to go through that again.

Please help me understand.


TWC also said "nothing is developing in the GOM" 30 minutes before Erin was upgraded. :roll:

You'll find better analysis here IMO. Listen to our pro mets; they know what they're talking about.

FWIW Air Force Met called Erin to hit Rockport while TWC and NHC was still saying near Brownsville......
0 likes   

Johnny
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1428
Joined: Thu Jul 10, 2003 1:35 pm
Location: No Snow For You, Texas

#7834 Postby Johnny » Sat Aug 18, 2007 8:49 am

AFM,

How strong do you think Dean will be if he takes the path you think he is going to? If you already posted it, I'm sorry...I missed it. Thanks.
0 likes   

rainman
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 45
Joined: Sat Aug 18, 2007 8:42 am
Location: Texas

Re:

#7835 Postby rainman » Sat Aug 18, 2007 8:50 am

wx247 wrote:MSNBC Met. Gary Archibald just mentioned that he believes the models will be shifting to the right soon... just like we have been discussing this morning. Thought I would pass that along.


he is probably reading this thread
0 likes   

User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3664
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

Re:

#7836 Postby drezee » Sat Aug 18, 2007 8:50 am

deleted post
Last edited by drezee on Sat Aug 18, 2007 8:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

GG
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 9
Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2005 2:09 pm
Location: Lumberton, Tx
Contact:

Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (8AM page 208) Discussions, Analysis

#7837 Postby GG » Sat Aug 18, 2007 8:51 am

sphelps8681 wrote:
I am just concerned because I live in Lumberton, Tx which is north of Beaumont. I was here when Rita hit and don't want to go through that again.

Please help me understand.


we are watching as well, from Lumberton!
0 likes   

User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3664
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (8AM page 208) Discussions, Analysis

#7838 Postby drezee » Sat Aug 18, 2007 8:52 am

Stsve Lyons just said that the track is going to be shifting South.
0 likes   

User avatar
vaffie
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 898
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:11 pm
Location: Houston, Texas

Re: DEAN: Global Models=6z GFDL landfall near Corpus Christi

#7839 Postby vaffie » Sat Aug 18, 2007 8:52 am

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
Last few frames of satellite looks like North of West movement basically over, travelling very close to due West again.


For the last two hours it has been traveling on average at 288 degrees, down from the 292 degrees of the previous hour, but still enough to miss Jamaica. GFDL is outperforming all models in the short term at least. The latest initialization for the 12Z runs has it currently going at 280 up from 274, but that's because it uses the last six hours of motion whereas I'm using the last three. Just fyi, in the last 15 minutes, it has moved approximately .03 degrees north and .09 degrees west, so the trend is continuing.
0 likes   

User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

Re: Hurricane Dean Recon obs=Vortex Data Message=929 mbs

#7840 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 8:53 am

000
UZNT13 KNHC 181349
XXAA 68137 99155 70682 04358 99929 27409 21013 00/// ///// /////
92040 27005 22014 85787 22802 25513 70473 18248 33002 88999 77999
31313 09608 81323
61616 AF304 0604A DEAN OB 11
62626 EYE SPL 1547N06824W 1326 MBL WND 23015 AEV 00000 DLM WND 25
510 928708 WL150 22515 076 =
XXBB 68138 99155 70682 04358 00929 27409 11850 22802 22793 20209
33782 21034 44705 19650 55698 17446
21212 00929 21013 11912 23017 22850 25513 33786 28010 44698 35002
31313 09608 81323
61616 AF304 0604A DEAN OB 11
62626 EYE SPL 1547N06824W 1326 MBL WND 23015 AEV 00000 DLM WND 25
510 928708 WL150 22515 076 =

Drosponde in Eye shows 929mb pressure with surface winds at 13kts. Pressure might be at 928mb.
0 likes   


Return to “2007”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests