CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Innotech]

thats what I dontl ike. The models and things seem like they are in TOO good of an agreement 5 days out still. Im growing increasingly concerned. I mean I know what these guys are doing, and that they are rpofessionals, but nature still manages to thwart our best predictions osmetimes. Especially with fast moving storms and powerplay between ULLs/ridges. I just think the possibility of a further north hit CANNOT be ruled out. I have family and friends all along the coast and I would prefer to not lead them into a false sense of security when the storm still hasnt even reached Jamaica.

[ronjon]

Last few frames of satellite looks like North of West movement basically over, travelling very close to due West again.

For the last two hours it has been traveling on average at 288 degrees, down from the 292 degrees of the previous hour, but still enough to miss Jamaica. GFDL is outperforming all models in the short term at least. The latest initialization for the 12Z runs has it currently going at 280 up from 274, but that's because it uses the last six hours of motion whereas I'm using the last three. Just fyi, in the last 15 minutes, it has moved approximately .03 degrees north and .09 degrees west, so the trend is continuing.

Yeah, on its present course it is making a beeline toward Les Cayes Haiti on the southwest coast. Poor Haitian people - there could be thousands of deaths from this storm.

[Normandy]

Man, you know what...
Im not so sure this wont hit the Dr/Haiti anymore.

[CrazyC83]

094
URNT15 KNHC 181421
AF304 0604A DEAN HDOB 23 20070818
141100 1523N 06946W 6967 03125 0024 +090 +071 016045 045 034 006 00
141130 1521N 06947W 6967 03126 0025 +090 +073 015045 045 033 006 00
141200 1519N 06947W 6967 03125 0027 +085 +081 015045 046 033 006 00
141230 1517N 06947W 6969 03125 0026 +088 +087 012046 047 033 006 00
141300 1515N 06948W 6969 03121 0023 +089 +089 010045 045 031 006 00
141330 1513N 06948W 6965 03129 0027 +085 +085 010041 043 032 006 00
141400 1511N 06949W 6967 03126 0027 +085 +085 008040 041 029 007 00
141430 1509N 06949W 6967 03129 0029 +085 +085 006042 044 029 006 00
141500 1507N 06949W 6968 03129 0031 +085 +085 005044 045 029 007 00
141530 1505N 06950W 6967 03132 0036 +084 +084 003041 042 030 007 00
141600 1503N 06950W 6965 03132 0031 +085 +085 001039 039 031 007 00
141630 1500N 06950W 6967 03132 0036 +084 +084 001039 039 029 006 00
141700 1458N 06951W 6967 03133 0042 +080 +080 357039 040 028 006 00
141730 1456N 06951W 6967 03133 0062 +066 +066 355040 040 028 044 00
141800 1454N 06951W 6969 03130 0073 +059 +059 001035 039 037 018 01
141830 1452N 06952W 6973 03127 0055 +073 +073 353032 032 037 031 03
141900 1450N 06952W 6967 03136 0050 +076 +076 350033 034 029 007 00
141930 1448N 06952W 6965 03138 0051 +076 +076 351032 032 027 007 00
142000 1446N 06953W 6967 03138 0056 +075 +075 353033 034 026 007 00
142030 1445N 06953W 6967 03140 0052 +079 +079 350034 034 026 007 00
$$

[hurricanefloyd5]

wow the GFDL model shows a around a 160 kts Dean Coming in near/around the Houston area!!!!!!!! What is everyone's thought's on this??? http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 5d#a_topad

it is also showing Mean Dean at 916mb around that time too!!!!

[KatDaddy]

Its definitely moving more NW. This has been ongoing for several hows thus not a jog but a trend. I believe the ULL is having influence on Dean. The ULL looks like its dug a little further S.

[Cape Verde]

Look at those sea temperatures at the TX/LA border!

[dhall21]

Its definitely moving more NW. This has been ongoing for several hows thus not a jog but a trend. I believe the ULL is having influence on Dean. The ULL looks like its dug a little further S.

does this mean good or bad news for the US?

[Portastorm]

When a hurricane undergoes an ERC, does it always (or usually) mean a larger storm in terms of size/scope?

Nevermind ... I did a little web research and found out. Btw, if anyone wants a little education' on ERCs, here is a nice link:

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints2/412/

[Jagno]

Just venting my concerns here for opinions but has anyone considered the tremendous storm surge that would result from this monster and how far coastal areas on the east side of Dean would be affected? Just going by all too recent memories of what the storm surge of Katrina did to Mississippi this has to be taken into consideration for folks.

[Ivanhater]

Interesting trend we have going here...Haiti better watch out if this continues

[Innotech]

I have two points to make.
1. the ULL isnt moving out as fast as Mets anticipated. That ridge isnt looking so strong anymore and Dean has got to be fighting it hard.

2. Correct me if Im wrong, but this is tropical discussion forum where amateurs can give their take on the situation. there is a WHOLE SECTION for professional analysis and predictions and anyone who truly wants only official information can easily go there and get uninterrupted advice and information. so why all the complaints about this particular section?

[ronjon]

The upper level low should have been sampled well by the radiosonde network over FL at 12Z, and hence the initialization should be somewhat better in the 12Z models. We'll see what effect this will have, but I suspect probably not much.

Yes, an according to Derek the earlier GFS runs did not initialize the ULL strong enough. Plus, the Miami sounding measured a very cold -12 deg C which indicates a pretty potent ULL.

[CrazyC83]

528
URNT15 KNHC 181431
AF304 0604A DEAN HDOB 24 20070818
142100 1443N 06953W 6967 03140 0054 +077 +077 350034 034 028 007 00
142130 1441N 06954W 6967 03140 0059 +075 +075 352034 034 028 008 00
142200 1439N 06954W 6967 03141 0056 +076 +076 346033 034 028 009 00
142230 1437N 06954W 6966 03144 0057 +078 +078 343032 033 028 009 00
142300 1435N 06955W 6968 03144 0055 +080 +080 339030 031 027 007 00
142330 1433N 06955W 6966 03148 0058 +080 +080 328026 028 026 008 00
142400 1431N 06955W 6967 03148 0054 +084 +084 326027 028 029 009 00
142430 1429N 06956W 6967 03148 0069 +074 +074 329027 028 027 071 00
142500 1427N 06956W 6969 03147 0071 +072 +072 327026 027 031 010 00
142530 1425N 06956W 6961 03154 0077 +067 +067 328025 028 031 016 00
142600 1423N 06957W 6966 03150 0068 +075 +075 329025 026 030 008 00
142630 1422N 06957W 6964 03154 0067 +078 +078 324023 025 030 010 00
142700 1420N 06957W 6967 03152 0060 +081 +081 318022 023 028 014 00
142730 1418N 06958W 6964 03155 0057 +084 +084 316023 024 026 006 00
142800 1416N 06958W 6967 03153 0056 +085 +078 311023 024 023 005 00
142830 1414N 06958W 6965 03153 0058 +084 +080 307021 021 019 006 03
142900 1413N 06957W 6970 03149 0061 +084 +082 299020 021 999 999 03
142930 1414N 06955W 6974 03147 0058 +085 +079 302019 020 014 006 03
143000 1415N 06954W 6964 03154 0053 +088 +075 306019 020 022 005 00
143030 1417N 06952W 6963 03155 0053 +088 +077 308021 021 026 007 00
$$

[btangy]

The upper level low should have been sampled well by the radiosonde network over FL at 12Z, and hence the initialization should be somewhat better in the 12Z models. We'll see what effect this will have, but I suspect probably not much.

Yes, an according to Derek the earlier GFS runs did not initialize the ULL strong enough. Plus, the Miami sounding measured a very cold -12 deg C which indicates a pretty potent ULL.

So far the 12Z NAM has initialized this pretty well, IMO. On the contrary, it is subtly weaker than the 00Z 12 hour prog.

NAM is trending a little weaker and more SW with the mid-upper level low reducing the weakness in the ridge. It seems the models are trending more toward the ECMWF solution and not the GFDL solution. I need not remind those familiar with the models that the ECMWF is a pretty darn good model and to ignore its solution completely, which has been one of the most consistent, would not be wise.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I've only been here this season, and I appreciate the Houston and SE Texas mets immensely. I consider myself a well informed amateur, have read lots of books, my wife even got me the Kocin/Uccellinni Northeast Snow Storm book for Christmas a few years back.

Now, I have a BS in Pet Engineering, and work as a petroleum engineer, and passed the FE test (aka EIT) in college, but never took the P&P exam, so I'm not a professional engineer.


I don't like the wobble North either, and Joe Bastardi has dropped references to one of the 1979 (David or Frederick, I don't remember) storms, that due to land interaction, cut straight across Hispaniola.

Of course, that would knock most of the stuffing out of Dean, but it would also put it into the Gulf way farther East than forecast. (And probably kill thousands in Haiti and the DR, so lets hope that isn't in the cards). Despite all that, last three days, Joe Bastardi says he thinks NHC forecast track has been very close to his own.

[tolakram]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... splay.html

Recently updated.

[rockyman]

wow the GFDL model shows a around a 160 kts Dean Coming in near/around the Houston area!!!!!!!! What is everyone's thought's on this??? http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 5d#a_topad

it is also showing Mean Dean at 916mb around that time too!!!!

Not sure if that's today's GFDL...when I clicked on the GFDL model on wunderground, the 00z run from last night came up (showing a 160knot Houston hit)

[storm4u]

Its definitely moving more NW. This has been ongoing for several hows thus not a jog but a trend. I believe the ULL is having influence on Dean. The ULL looks like its dug a little further S.

does this mean good or bad news for the US?

its bad news but we will just have to wait and see

[Evil Jeremy]

Its definitely moving more NW. This has been ongoing for several hows thus not a jog but a trend. I believe the ULL is having influence on Dean. The ULL looks like its dug a little further S.

does this mean good or bad news for the US?

Bad, especially for Texas if this verifies.