CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Extremeweatherguy]

11am advisory = Dean now officially moving WNW.

[ronjon]

If it continues this northerly component, in 3-4 hrs it will be near 16N-69W - NHC projected location at 16N is 71W. A full two degrees longitude difference!

[Derek Ortt]

from the microwave imagery posted here

the inner eyewall was starting to weaken while the outer starts to intensify

[jhamps10]

from the microwave imagery posted here

the inner eyewall was starting to weaken while the outer starts to intensify

EWRC starting?

[temujin]

u are totally right, I almost yelled at my tv a while ago when I heard that on TWC. Also if it hits yucatan, don't expect Cantore in the US for landfall either. since he's goin to Cancun for live reports tomorrow according to TWC.

If Cantori is going to Cancun, then we know Dean isn't heading there.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 11am advisory has Dean only clipping the northern Yucatan..yet is also shows a final landfall still south in Mexico. Hmm. I have a feeling this may change down the road...especially if that ULL decides to hang out near TX.

[CrazyC83]

507
URNT15 KNHC 181451
AF304 0604A DEAN HDOB 26 20070818
144100 1443N 06927W 6965 03125 0029 +083 +083 322031 033 031 008 00
144130 1444N 06925W 6967 03121 0027 +082 +082 328028 029 029 006 00
144200 1445N 06924W 6968 03119 0025 +084 +082 330029 030 028 006 00
144230 1446N 06923W 6966 03119 0024 +080 +080 330030 031 029 006 00
144300 1448N 06922W 6967 03116 0022 +080 +080 329029 030 029 006 00
144330 1449N 06921W 6967 03115 0018 +083 +083 327030 031 029 006 00
144400 1450N 06920W 6967 03114 0014 +086 +086 327031 032 031 006 00
144430 1451N 06919W 6967 03112 0008 +087 +087 326030 031 031 005 00
144500 1453N 06918W 6964 03114 0009 +083 +083 321031 032 032 006 00
144530 1454N 06917W 6967 03107 0005 +085 +085 321033 034 032 006 00
144600 1455N 06915W 6967 03106 0003 +085 +085 317034 036 032 007 00
144630 1456N 06914W 6968 03101 0002 +083 +083 312037 037 034 007 00
144700 1458N 06913W 6968 03097 9999 +083 +083 312039 040 034 007 00
144730 1459N 06912W 6967 03095 9990 +086 +086 312041 042 036 007 00
144800 1500N 06911W 6966 03091 9983 +089 +089 313044 045 037 008 00
144830 1501N 06910W 6967 03086 9983 +084 +084 308044 044 039 024 00
144900 1503N 06909W 6968 03080 9978 +084 +084 310045 045 041 045 03
144930 1504N 06907W 6967 03078 9972 +086 +086 306044 044 042 011 03
145000 1505N 06906W 6967 03073 9959 +092 +092 306045 046 042 017 03
145030 1507N 06905W 6966 03068 9945 +097 +097 306046 046 044 008 00
$$

Heading for the eye again...

[weatherguru18]

Steve Lyons said AGAIN that the cone will be shifted south? Is he on something?????????????????????????????

[Stratosphere747]

That ULL over Florida seems to be dipping more to the SW than moving to the W.

Not sure if that is enough or what may be tugging Dean to the WNW. Guess we will know later in the day.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Sabanic-

I was but a teenager, and living up North (where I developed my love of snowstorms). My late father (who worked with Harold Taft, now deceased, famous KXAS met in FTW, when he worked at DAL for AA in the 50s) got transferred back to Texas, upon which I developed my appreciation for severe weather. Hurricane Belle, which threatened to destroy our home, and had NY NG come to our house to order evac, got me going on hurricanes.


BTW, with Major Applewhite, beloved by Texas Longhorn fans everywhere, as the Offensive Coordinator, I'm looking for Alabama to return to the top of the SEC within a few years, and possibly play Texas for a title.

[sealbach]

Yeah, I just saw that. I was scratching my head on that one especially after seeing it take such a northwesterly jog.

[rockyman]

Most disturbing with the latest advisory: Cat 5 traveling the length of Jamaica from East to West

[Sabanic]

The 11am advisory has Dean only clipping the northern Yucatan..yet is also shows a final landfall still south in Mexico. Hmm. I have a feeling this may change down the road...especially if that ULL decides to hang out near TX.

Guess they'll be waiting for new model runs before adjusting their track, and also to see if we definitely have a more northward component continue

[msbee]

a new report from Dominica.
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/dominica.shtml
Here is a report on Martinique's banana industry being destroyed:
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L18610114.htm

and here are a few pictures:
http://news.search.yahoo.com/search/new ... =&ei=UTF-8

[mf_dolphin]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 181447
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 18 2007

...DEAN'S FURY THREATENS HAITI...JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...HEAVY SQUALLS ALREADY APPROACHING HISPANIOLA...

AT 11 AM...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER...AND FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA...AND
FOR COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 AM...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE
PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 AM...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.6 WEST OR ABOUT 565 MILES...
910 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 210 MILES...
340 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A
TRACK BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE
MOVING SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA TODAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE WAS 929 MB...27.43 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH
AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...15.7 N...68.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[mf_dolphin]

000
WTNT24 KNHC 181447
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1500 UTC SAT AUG 18 2007

AT 11 AM...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER...AND FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA...AND
FOR COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 AM...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE
PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 AM...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 68.6W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 929 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT.......100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT.......180NE 120SE 100SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..375NE 210SE 75SW 375NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 68.6W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 67.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.4N 71.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.3N 74.3W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.3N 77.8W...NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.5N 81.4W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.5N 88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 23.0N 94.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 25.4N 100.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 68.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[mf_dolphin]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 181448
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007

AN AIR FORCE PLANE ENTERED THE EYE OF DEAN THIS MORNING AND FOUND
THAT THE HURRICANE HAS NOT WEAKENED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 130 KNOTS. IN FACT...THE MINIMUM PRESSURE DROPPED TO 924
MB AT AROUND 1200 UTC AND THEN UP TO 929 MB JUST RECENTLY. DEAN
WILL LIKELY GO THROUGH EYEWALL CYCLES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
RESULTING IN FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE PEAK
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND YUCATAN WHERE THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
IS VERY HIGH. DEAN COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE AT ANY TIME BEFORE
IT REACHES YUCATAN.

THE STEERING PATTERN HAS BEEN VERY STEADY. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS STEERED BY A HIGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A LOW OVER FLORIDA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WESTWARD AND BE REPLACED BY A STRONG RIDGE BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS.
THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP DEAN ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST
TRACK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE DIRECTION OF JAMAICA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS AND YUCATAN. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK MODELS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL WHICH INSISTS ON A TRACK FARTHER TO
THE NORTH AND JUST CLIPPING THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/1500Z 15.7N 68.6W 130 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 16.4N 71.0W 130 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 17.3N 74.3W 135 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 18.3N 77.8W 125 KT...NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA
48HR VT 20/1200Z 19.5N 81.4W 140 KT
72HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 88.5W 100 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 22/1200Z 23.0N 94.0W 110 KT
120HR VT 23/1200Z 25.4N 100.0W 50 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[hicksta]

when do the next model runs come

[SaveNola]

According to the floater, Dean would need to turn almost due west to catch its next forecast point:


(click Trop Fcst Pts box)

Seems unlikely, but it has corrected for a northerly component before (yesterday) - that long radar loop posted a few back shows that a big correction is definitely not out of the question.

[jhamps10]

here is the explaination on the no track change:

THE STEERING PATTERN HAS BEEN VERY STEADY. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS STEERED BY A HIGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A LOW OVER FLORIDA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WESTWARD AND BE REPLACED BY A STRONG RIDGE BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS.
THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP DEAN ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST
TRACK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE DIRECTION OF JAMAICA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS AND YUCATAN. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK MODELS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL WHICH INSISTS ON A TRACK FARTHER TO
THE NORTH AND JUST CLIPPING THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.