CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[dhall21]

dean is starting to farther north of the nhc forecast points..is this good or bad for the united states?

[jhamps10]

dean is starting to farther north of the nhc forecast points..is this good or bad for the united states?

BAD! REALLY BAD!

[Sabanic]

Sabanic-

I was but a teenager, and living up North (where I developed my love of snowstorms). My late father (who worked with Harold Taft, now deceased, famous KXAS met in FTW, when he worked at DAL for AA in the 50s) got transferred back to Texas, upon which I developed my appreciation for severe weather. Hurricane Belle, which threatened to destroy our home, and had NY NG come to our house to order evac, got me going on hurricanes.


BTW, with Major Applewhite, beloved by Texas Longhorn fans everywhere, as the Offensive Coordinator, I'm looking for Alabama to return to the top of the SEC within a few years, and possibly play Texas for a title.

Ed we are excited also. MA is a young, energetic coach, and from what we are seeing so far in fall practice, the Bama offense will be very exciting. That would be an awesome matchup too. Let's hope it happens.

These storms are unreal to say the least. Interesting, beautiful, and exciting to watch. It would be perfect if they didn't casue so much damage, and cause loss of lives.

[cpdaman]

now that the ull is moving wsw thru south fl as we speak it may make the wnw 295 degree track temporary if the storm slows down further (from 17 mph) IMUO or at least keep it at nothing more than a 285 heading.

looks like steve lyons is concerned it may brush sw haiti with sustained hurricane winds but then said again the (long term) track may need to push south?

on a side note their is a huge shield of rain in bahamas i guess from the ull retrograding west

[dhall21]

dean is starting to farther north of the nhc forecast points..is this good or bad for the united states?

BAD! REALLY BAD!

but i thought the high would be blocking it...

[CrazyC83]

334
URNT15 KNHC 181501
AF304 0604A DEAN HDOB 27 20070818
145100 1508N 06904W 6968 03061 9950 +090 +090 306045 048 044 007 00
145130 1509N 06903W 6967 03058 9946 +089 +089 306042 043 045 007 00
145200 1511N 06902W 6967 03052 9934 +093 +093 308044 044 046 008 00
145230 1512N 06901W 6959 03054 9934 +088 +088 314043 044 052 044 03
145300 1513N 06900W 6973 03033 9948 +073 +073 312051 055 054 023 01
145330 1515N 06859W 6958 03037 9913 +077 +077 324054 056 054 036 05
145400 1516N 06858W 6970 03009 9884 +098 +098 322052 056 056 043 03
145430 1517N 06857W 6967 03003 9864 +104 +104 319054 055 055 010 00
145500 1517N 06857W 6967 03003 9858 +099 +099 317056 057 057 009 00
145530 1520N 06855W 6965 02980 9834 +107 +107 309057 059 059 008 00
145600 1521N 06854W 6963 02971 9806 +117 +116 303061 062 060 007 00
145630 1522N 06853W 6968 02950 9776 +133 +099 303067 069 061 006 00
145700 1524N 06851W 6971 02929 9746 +145 +085 302071 073 062 005 00
145730 1525N 06850W 6960 02921 9744 +120 +118 294067 069 064 006 00
145800 1527N 06849W 6966 02896 9738 +110 +110 290064 066 065 006 00
145830 1528N 06848W 6974 02861 9701 +119 +105 292069 072 069 008 00
145900 1529N 06847W 6962 02844 9636 +148 +102 287075 078 074 006 00
145930 1531N 06846W 6970 02798 9585 +159 +115 281075 077 078 004 00
150000 1533N 06845W 6963 02754 9529 +164 +089 278085 088 080 007 00
150030 1534N 06844W 6968 02695 9444 +188 +103 280087 091 080 006 00
$$

Closing in on the center. The next run should be interesting...

[USTropics]

They start rolling in around 11:30 EDT.

[rockyman]

I know Avila is a man of few words (most of the time)...any ideas why he would discount the GFDL model...other than the fact that it doesn't "follow" the pack?

[Evil Jeremy]

dean is starting to farther north of the nhc forecast points..is this good or bad for the united states?

BAD! REALLY BAD!

but i thought the high would be blocking it...

The high wont do anything if the ULL wont move west

[TampaFl]

11:00 am position. Continueing to move wnw to nw more & more.

[NewOrleansMom]

from the microwave imagery posted here

the inner eyewall was starting to weaken while the outer starts to intensify

EWRC starting?

I'm learning too.
I looked it up and I "think" EWRC means Eye Wall Replacment Circle.
I could be wrong.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The upper level low should have been sampled well by the radiosonde network over FL at 12Z, and hence the initialization should be somewhat better in the 12Z models. We'll see what effect this will have, but I suspect probably not much.

Yes, an according to Derek the earlier GFS runs did not initialize the ULL strong enough. Plus, the Miami sounding measured a very cold -12 deg C which indicates a pretty potent ULL.

So far the 12Z NAM has initialized this pretty well, IMO. On the contrary, it is subtly weaker than the 00Z 12 hour prog.

NAM is trending a little weaker and more SW with the mid-upper level low reducing the weakness in the ridge. It seems the models are trending more toward the ECMWF solution and not the GFDL solution. I need not remind those familiar with the models that the ECMWF is a pretty darn good model and to ignore its solution completely, which has been one of the most consistent, would not be wise.

If the upper low travels more SW, then that would actually increase the weakness. Also, we do not know for sure that the NAM has initialized the upper low well. For all we know, it could be initializing it too weak. Let's wait for the 12z runs of the more important models before making any calls.

[jrod]

The wNW is likely just a jog. If it is still on that course in 12 hrs, then we'll have to really start scratching our heads. As bad as it sounds, a TX landfall would be better than a Mexico landfall based on the infrastructure. A big storm slamming the Mexico mainland will almost certainly cause more deaths than a hit in Texas.

[MusicCityMan]

Ok guys.. stupid question. Is there any chance of a dramatic shift in the track? Like instead of Mexico, Texas.. it'd be Louisiana, Mississippi?

[btangy]

If the upper low travels more SW, then that would actually increase the weakness.

Actually, the opposite would occur because the heights to the N of the storm would be higher providing more a easterly steering current.

[MusicCityMan]

and btw yes.. EWRC or ERC equals Eyewall Replacement Cycle

[Sabanic]

Ok guys.. stupid question. Is there any chance of a dramatic shift in the track? Like instead of Mexico, Texas.. it'd be Louisiana, Mississippi?

With these storms there is always a "Chance"

[windstorm99]

[img]

[tropicsgal05]

If Dean is turning more north would that put him into the central gulf? I'm aware anything can happen. TY

[Recurve]

From 11 am discussion:

THE STEERING PATTERN HAS BEEN VERY STEADY. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS STEERED BY A HIGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A LOW OVER FLORIDA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WESTWARD AND BE REPLACED BY A STRONG RIDGE BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS.THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP DEAN ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST
TRACK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE DIRECTION OF JAMAICA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS AND YUCATAN. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK MODELS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL WHICH INSISTS ON A TRACK FARTHER TO
THE NORTH AND JUST CLIPPING THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/1500Z 15.7N 68.6W 130 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 16.4N 71.0W 130 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 17.3N 74.3W 135 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 18.3N 77.8W 125 KT...NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA
48HR VT 20/1200Z 19.5N 81.4W 140 KT
72HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 88.5W 100 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 22/1200Z 23.0N 94.0W 110 KT
120HR VT 23/1200Z 25.4N 100.0W 50 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER AVILA