CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[CrazyC83]

430
URNT15 KNHC 181511
AF304 0604A DEAN HDOB 28 20070818
150100 1536N 06843W 6994 02595 9386 +170 +139 273062 075 070 005 00
150130 1538N 06842W 6967 02568 9324 +175 +133 251033 042 053 008 03
150200 1539N 06843W 6964 02552 9289 +196 +103 254003 011 028 006 03
150230 1541N 06844W 6970 02532 9267 +209 +100 073011 013 999 999 03
150300 1542N 06842W 6970 02532 9283 +189 +118 125024 031 999 999 03
150330 1543N 06841W 6964 02551 9309 +172 +119 129044 051 054 005 03
150400 1543N 06839W 6964 02577 9348 +157 +130 143071 080 081 005 00
150430 1544N 06838W 6972 02616 9428 +123 +123 147103 115 113 001 03
150500 1545N 06837W 6964 02695 9517 +110 +110 144132 135 114 002 00
150530 1546N 06836W 6962 02749 9567 +118 +118 143135 138 110 008 00
150600 1547N 06834W 6987 02770 9629 +109 +109 139126 129 100 012 03
150630 1549N 06833W 6958 02844 9697 +086 +086 140119 122 092 020 00
150700 1549N 06833W 6958 02844 9718 +091 +091 139116 118 088 029 03
150730 1551N 06831W 6966 02889 9747 +096 +096 137111 112 084 042 03
150800 1552N 06830W 6975 02899 9777 +087 +087 137112 115 078 031 00
150830 1553N 06829W 6965 02927 9990 +081 +999 138113 114 084 019 01
150900 1554N 06828W 6973 02938 9832 +078 +078 137112 113 085 047 05
150930 1555N 06827W 6965 02963 9828 +096 +096 136113 114 084 010 00
151000 1556N 06826W 6965 02977 9847 +094 +094 138112 113 082 010 00
151030 1557N 06825W 6965 02991 9857 +097 +097 138111 112 080 011 00
$$

138kt FL peak. Pressure extrapolated at 927mb again.

[windnrain]

It has been said that strong storms trend poleward. However, NONE of the models show it going through middle texas or north of that. I would love to have the hurricane come to my area (yeah, I like weather, sorry, you're not going to change my mind), especially over a place like Mexico, where poverty and lack of basic infrastructure codes would cause a much higher death toll.

[KatDaddy]

Well its been heading WNW to NW for almost 6 hours. I feel this is a trend rather than jog. I feel the ULL will influence Dean the rest of the day.

[theworld]

latest upper level wind flows...

[Stephanie]

That is NOT GOOD for Martinique. If Dean passed over the southern portion of the island, it got the full force of the hurricane winds.

Which side of the island has the volcano on it that devastated half of the island?

I remember taking a tour on Martinique and seeing all of the banana groves. It's truly a beautiful island - they all are.

[hicksta]

Ok guys.. stupid question. Is there any chance of a dramatic shift in the track? Like instead of Mexico, Texas.. it'd be Louisiana, Mississippi?

Thing about big storms is they tend to pull polar or go more north, theres always a chance with a big storm like this cause sometimes they just do waht they want, but as of now is it likely? no but theres always a chance

[jacindc]

That ULL over Florida seems to be dipping more to the SW than moving to the W.

Not sure if that is enough or what may be tugging Dean to the WNW. Guess we will know later in the day.

Trying to understand why the position of the ULL would impact Dean. I definitely see it digging farther to the SW on the water vapor loop--would Dean be pulled by that northeasterly flow on the eastern side of the ULL, and that's why he would be "tugged" WNW?

And if the ULL had stayed farther north in FL as originally progged, Dean would have stayed below that northeasterly flow, and continued more west?

Thanks for any guidance for more knowledgeable folks...

[Sanibel]

My thoughts in this post are my own and are based on my personal opinion and little else. They have nothing to do with Storm2k or its owners. During serious hurricanes ALWAYS consult your professional Hurricane Center for decision making information.

Dean is a weird one. All hurricanes are different and this is an example. While drawing reasonable comparisons to Gilbert, Dean is doing straight-line deviations north and south of track. It would be reasonable to worry about this north of track wobble because hurricanes have more trouble recorrecting against poleward than towards it. But the experienced in here know hurricanes can go in any direction and have before.

So the operative question is whether this is Dean finding a weakness or Dean is doing another straight-track wobble that will correct back left again? He's getting close to where he would hit the ULL weakness or ridge periphery. A right of track turn here is very significant. It would send worse rains to Haiti where the consequences are serious.

[jenmrk]

Could you add AL/FL to that last question, it seems that opinions are so mixed at this point of ths northward motion, if it continued more north what would need to happen to push it in our direction of the Panhandle? I hope this is not a stupid question, it is just really hard to understand why there are so many differant opinions, it makes anything seem possible.

[mf_dolphin]

The current motion definitely opens the possibility of Dean "shooting the slot" between Jamaica and Cuba.

[weatherguru18]

Not to mention that the ULL would begin to shear dean to pieces.

[Brent]

AMAZING storm, I am very surprised it's already a strong 4.

On another note, big lightning storm last night and now my internet is down.

[USTropics]

If Dean is turning more north would that put him into the central gulf? I'm aware anything can happen. TY

I don't believe forward momentum would allow Dean to go directly into the central GOM. It could lift it more north then what the models are suggesting currently, but I don't see a weakness in the ridge pulling dean in a direct northward direction through the Yucatan Channel.

[CrazyC83]

957
URNT15 KNHC 181521
AF304 0604A DEAN HDOB 29 20070818
151100 1558N 06823W 6965 03004 9887 +083 +083 137109 113 079 010 03
151130 1559N 06822W 6990 02986 9918 +069 +069 134108 109 075 037 05
151200 1600N 06821W 6963 03022 9927 +069 +069 131106 106 075 011 00
151230 1601N 06820W 6965 03033 9918 +086 +086 131104 105 073 008 00
151300 1602N 06819W 6964 03042 9931 +084 +084 132098 100 067 009 03
151330 1603N 06818W 6963 03055 9951 +073 +073 133095 097 064 037 05
151400 1604N 06817W 6966 03055 9956 +077 +077 132098 102 067 025 03
151430 1605N 06816W 6953 03078 9967 +072 +072 131094 097 070 054 03
151500 1607N 06815W 6973 03057 9970 +076 +076 135092 093 069 010 00
151530 1608N 06813W 6961 03078 9979 +075 +075 135091 093 068 046 03
151600 1609N 06812W 6972 03072 9975 +084 +084 138088 090 066 010 00
151630 1610N 06811W 6971 03078 9979 +084 +084 139089 091 065 011 00
151700 1611N 06810W 6963 03091 9997 +076 +076 139085 088 065 011 00
151730 1612N 06809W 6967 03090 0009 +067 +067 141084 086 061 030 03
151800 1613N 06807W 6969 03089 0007 +072 +072 141079 081 063 010 00
151830 1615N 06806W 6967 03098 0010 +075 +075 143079 081 060 010 00
151900 1616N 06805W 6963 03108 0013 +076 +076 140082 083 060 010 00
151930 1617N 06804W 6967 03108 0022 +074 +074 138078 079 060 010 00
152000 1618N 06803W 6969 03107 0024 +075 +075 137077 078 061 009 00
152030 1619N 06801W 6963 03119 0016 +084 +084 136077 078 059 008 00
$$

[miamicanes177]

The current motion definitely opens the possibility of Dean "shooting the slot" between Jamaica and Cuba.

This is the GFDL solution...just partly scraping Jamaica with the core and dealing a lethal blow before heading off to scrap the Yucatan.

[Farseer]

The current motion definitely opens the possibility of Dean "shooting the slot" between Jamaica and Cuba.

Drawing a line on Dean's current course would have him clipping the southern parts of Haiti and Cuba.

[Cape Verde]

It has been said that strong storms trend poleward. However, NONE of the models show it going through middle texas or north of that. I would love to have the hurricane come to my area (yeah, I like weather, sorry, you're not going to change my mind), especially over a place like Mexico, where poverty and lack of basic infrastructure codes would cause a much higher death toll.

That's just not true. A northern Mexico landfall, north of Tampico would impact a relatively unpopulated area, just as a hit between Brownsville and Corpus Christi would. Except for those fairly significant cities, it's nothing but open ranchland.

[Recurve]

You can look at steering winds here. Deeper layer flow and higher boundary for stronger storms.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html

[tropicsPR]

In this loop Dean seems to be moving directly to the northwest:

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... verlay=off

[whereverwx]

This image appears badly cropped, but it is the best I could get.