CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads
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- Extremeweatherguy
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models=12z GFS is rolling in
tropicsgal05 wrote:Which model does weather wunderground use? I was looking at the site and it shows Dean going to Texas\Louisiana border.
The one that they can get the most hits generated with...
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11AM page 217) Discussions, Analysis
Sjones wrote:I am in total confusion. TWC still has this thing going WEST but yet, all of the new models even from the NHC say it is going WNW. However TWC is still calling for a MEXICO landfall, possibly South Texas?!?? I think the mets on TWC are hiding something, and like when Rita came, all of a sudden decide within 24 hours, "Oh this thing has taken a MAJOR NORTH turn, it was headed to MX now it's headed to LA. Arrrgggghhhhh!!!!!![]()
Since John Hope left us I hardly waste any time watching TWC any longer. I learn much more here than they could ever begin to show or teach you.
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models
btangy wrote:If the upper low travels more SW, then that would actually increase the weakness.
Actually, the opposite would occur because the heights to the N of the storm would be higher providing more a easterly steering current.
then that may explain why Dr. Lyons on TWC continues to be pretty confident that even though this storm may graze SW haiti the long term track may shift even a lil more south
extreme do you concur now
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (8AM page 208) Discussions, Analysis
[/quote]
Thank you so much for this post.
Too many around here (not the board, maybe, but I'm referring to LA.) were saying we don't need to watch or worry about it anymore.
You'd think by now people would have learned you have to keep watching as those predicted landfalls change so often and so quickly.[/quote]
We ALL need to watch very closely !![/quote]
Uh, yes. But, as I posted I was talking about what I'm hearing around here. "Here" means in the NOLA area. And AirForceMet was talking about TX/LA.
Thank you so much for this post.
Too many around here (not the board, maybe, but I'm referring to LA.) were saying we don't need to watch or worry about it anymore.
You'd think by now people would have learned you have to keep watching as those predicted landfalls change so often and so quickly.[/quote]
We ALL need to watch very closely !![/quote]
Uh, yes. But, as I posted I was talking about what I'm hearing around here. "Here" means in the NOLA area. And AirForceMet was talking about TX/LA.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11AM page 217) Discussions, Analysis
Question: If Dean gets closer than expected to Hispanola there would be interaction of the storm to the mountains and that would create friction and slow the circulation down on the NE side could that allow the circulation to be tugged NE during the interaction?
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11AM page 217) Discussions, Analysis
GFDL 6z takes Dean over the top of Cancun at 180mph.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11AM page 217) Discussions, Analysis
This looks to be a extremly devestating storm for Jamaica, Dean looks to be headed right for them.
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- Extremeweatherguy
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84 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif
500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084l.gif
Looks like another far south run into Mexico. However, I still don't want to believe this b/c it initializes the storm way too weak. I would give the GFS much more credit if it could at least show this being a hurricane from the get go. Stronger storms are always biased more to the north with their tracks.
500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084l.gif
Looks like another far south run into Mexico. However, I still don't want to believe this b/c it initializes the storm way too weak. I would give the GFS much more credit if it could at least show this being a hurricane from the get go. Stronger storms are always biased more to the north with their tracks.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Sat Aug 18, 2007 10:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models=12z GFS is rolling in
I hope this is ok to post here. It's from Jeff:
Recon just reported in with 926mb pressure and flight level winds of 154 kts (Stepped Micro. however is suggesting surface winds are just below cat 5 intensity).
Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica
Very dangerous hurricane capable of catastrophic damage heading for Jamaica, Caymans Islands, Yucatan Pen and Gulf of Mexico
Track:
There appears to be a growing consensus within the model guidance of a general WNW track through the Gulf of Mexico and toward the N Mexican coast and lower TX coast. However, within the last 6 hours Dean has pulled more northward and is now missing the NHC forecast points to the north. It appears the GFS has not grasped the upper low over FL very well and all guidance running off this model is farther to the south than the GFDL and GFS ensembles. With that said, both the GFDL and GFS ensembles have shifted southward overnight with the GFDL taking a catastrophic cat 4/5 into the lower/middle TX coast. For now will continue to ride the guidance cluster until any deviations are required. Close landfall location in N Mexico at this time puts devastating NE quad of storm right through S Padre and Brownsville. I have seen too many times the forecast tracks shift rightward due to the horrible biases of the GFS and its poor handling of upper TUTT’s and I am not completely sold on a Mexico landfall…if everything holds today with the guidance I will feel much better on Sunday that the system will move into Mexico. The window for evacuations is starting to close for S TX.
Intensity:
What else is to be said…Dean is already a monster hurricane and is forecast to intensify even more over the western Caribbean Sea. GFDL takes the hurricane to an amazing 177kts or a high end cat 5.The interaction with the Yucatan remains in question as to what affect it will have on intensity however all intensity guidance brings the hurricane into the western Gulf as a powerful cat 4. Powerful hurricanes such as Dean usually go through eyewall replacement cycles with up and down fluctuations in intensity and this will be likely over the next 3-4 days.
Preparations:
At noon today TXDOT is suspending all construction on TX highways
All evac. Routes are being swept at this time for road hazards.
Fuel supplies are being surged to the coast and residents urged to keep tanks full in case an evacuation is called for.
If the forecast track holds mandatory evacuations will be needed for the lower TX coastline as early as Monday morning.
Residents along the TX coast should review hurricane preparation plans and be prepared to put these plans into effect as early as Monday if needed.
Recon just reported in with 926mb pressure and flight level winds of 154 kts (Stepped Micro. however is suggesting surface winds are just below cat 5 intensity).
Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica
Very dangerous hurricane capable of catastrophic damage heading for Jamaica, Caymans Islands, Yucatan Pen and Gulf of Mexico
Track:
There appears to be a growing consensus within the model guidance of a general WNW track through the Gulf of Mexico and toward the N Mexican coast and lower TX coast. However, within the last 6 hours Dean has pulled more northward and is now missing the NHC forecast points to the north. It appears the GFS has not grasped the upper low over FL very well and all guidance running off this model is farther to the south than the GFDL and GFS ensembles. With that said, both the GFDL and GFS ensembles have shifted southward overnight with the GFDL taking a catastrophic cat 4/5 into the lower/middle TX coast. For now will continue to ride the guidance cluster until any deviations are required. Close landfall location in N Mexico at this time puts devastating NE quad of storm right through S Padre and Brownsville. I have seen too many times the forecast tracks shift rightward due to the horrible biases of the GFS and its poor handling of upper TUTT’s and I am not completely sold on a Mexico landfall…if everything holds today with the guidance I will feel much better on Sunday that the system will move into Mexico. The window for evacuations is starting to close for S TX.
Intensity:
What else is to be said…Dean is already a monster hurricane and is forecast to intensify even more over the western Caribbean Sea. GFDL takes the hurricane to an amazing 177kts or a high end cat 5.The interaction with the Yucatan remains in question as to what affect it will have on intensity however all intensity guidance brings the hurricane into the western Gulf as a powerful cat 4. Powerful hurricanes such as Dean usually go through eyewall replacement cycles with up and down fluctuations in intensity and this will be likely over the next 3-4 days.
Preparations:
At noon today TXDOT is suspending all construction on TX highways
All evac. Routes are being swept at this time for road hazards.
Fuel supplies are being surged to the coast and residents urged to keep tanks full in case an evacuation is called for.
If the forecast track holds mandatory evacuations will be needed for the lower TX coastline as early as Monday morning.
Residents along the TX coast should review hurricane preparation plans and be prepared to put these plans into effect as early as Monday if needed.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11AM page 217) Discussions, Analysis
Sanibel wrote:GFDL 6z takes Dean over the top of Cancun at 180mph.
The power of a 180 mph hurricane is hard to imagine for anyone.

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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11AM page 217) Discussions, Analysis
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070818/ap_ ... r_texas_11
Great quote
"Today people in Mississippi don't need to panic, but they need to think," Barbour said Friday.
Barbour said people should think about where they will go if an evacuation is ordered and how they'll travel. He said people should make sure they have fuel, water, and a source of communication if electricity is lost.
"No government is big enough to do everything for everybody," Barbour said.
Great quote
"Today people in Mississippi don't need to panic, but they need to think," Barbour said Friday.
Barbour said people should think about where they will go if an evacuation is ordered and how they'll travel. He said people should make sure they have fuel, water, and a source of communication if electricity is lost.
"No government is big enough to do everything for everybody," Barbour said.
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Re: Re:
jacindc wrote:Stratosphere747 wrote:That ULL over Florida seems to be dipping more to the SW than moving to the W.
Not sure if that is enough or what may be tugging Dean to the WNW. Guess we will know later in the day.
Trying to understand why the position of the ULL would impact Dean. I definitely see it digging farther to the SW on the water vapor loop--would Dean be pulled by that northeasterly flow on the eastern side of the ULL, and that's why he would be "tugged" WNW?
And if the ULL had stayed farther north in FL as originally progged, Dean would have stayed below that northeasterly flow, and continued more west?
Thanks for any guidance for more knowledgeable folks...
The ULL is moving over South Central Florida today. IT is moving west according to the latest WV loop:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfwv.html
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11AM page 217) Discussions, Analysis
from Jeff:
Recon just reported in with 926mb pressure and flight level winds of 154 kts (Stepped Micro. however is suggesting surface winds are just below cat 5 intensity).
Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica
Very dangerous hurricane capable of catastrophic damage heading for Jamaica, Caymans Islands, Yucatan Pen and Gulf of Mexico
Track:
There appears to be a growing consensus within the model guidance of a general WNW track through the Gulf of Mexico and toward the N Mexican coast and lower TX coast. However, within the last 6 hours Dean has pulled more northward and is now missing the NHC forecast points to the north. It appears the GFS has not grasped the upper low over FL very well and all guidance running off this model is farther to the south than the GFDL and GFS ensembles. With that said, both the GFDL and GFS ensembles have shifted southward overnight with the GFDL taking a catastrophic cat 4/5 into the lower/middle TX coast. For now will continue to ride the guidance cluster until any deviations are required. Close landfall location in N Mexico at this time puts devastating NE quad of storm right through S Padre and Brownsville. I have seen too many times the forecast tracks shift rightward due to the horrible biases of the GFS and its poor handling of upper TUTT’s and I am not completely sold on a Mexico landfall…if everything holds today with the guidance I will feel much better on Sunday that the system will move into Mexico. The window for evacuations is starting to close for S TX.
Intensity:
What else is to be said…Dean is already a monster hurricane and is forecast to intensify even more over the western Caribbean Sea. GFDL takes the hurricane to an amazing 177kts or a high end cat 5.The interaction with the Yucatan remains in question as to what affect it will have on intensity however all intensity guidance brings the hurricane into the western Gulf as a powerful cat 4. Powerful hurricanes such as Dean usually go through eyewall replacement cycles with up and down fluctuations in intensity and this will be likely over the next 3-4 days.
Preparations:
At noon today TXDOT is suspending all construction on TX highways
All evac. Routes are being swept at this time for road hazards.
Fuel supplies are being surged to the coast and residents urged to keep tanks full in case an evacuation is called for.
If the forecast track holds mandatory evacuations will be needed for the lower TX coastline as early as Monday morning.
Residents along the TX coast should review hurricane preparation plans and be prepared to put these plans into effect as early as Monday if needed.
Recon just reported in with 926mb pressure and flight level winds of 154 kts (Stepped Micro. however is suggesting surface winds are just below cat 5 intensity).
Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica
Very dangerous hurricane capable of catastrophic damage heading for Jamaica, Caymans Islands, Yucatan Pen and Gulf of Mexico
Track:
There appears to be a growing consensus within the model guidance of a general WNW track through the Gulf of Mexico and toward the N Mexican coast and lower TX coast. However, within the last 6 hours Dean has pulled more northward and is now missing the NHC forecast points to the north. It appears the GFS has not grasped the upper low over FL very well and all guidance running off this model is farther to the south than the GFDL and GFS ensembles. With that said, both the GFDL and GFS ensembles have shifted southward overnight with the GFDL taking a catastrophic cat 4/5 into the lower/middle TX coast. For now will continue to ride the guidance cluster until any deviations are required. Close landfall location in N Mexico at this time puts devastating NE quad of storm right through S Padre and Brownsville. I have seen too many times the forecast tracks shift rightward due to the horrible biases of the GFS and its poor handling of upper TUTT’s and I am not completely sold on a Mexico landfall…if everything holds today with the guidance I will feel much better on Sunday that the system will move into Mexico. The window for evacuations is starting to close for S TX.
Intensity:
What else is to be said…Dean is already a monster hurricane and is forecast to intensify even more over the western Caribbean Sea. GFDL takes the hurricane to an amazing 177kts or a high end cat 5.The interaction with the Yucatan remains in question as to what affect it will have on intensity however all intensity guidance brings the hurricane into the western Gulf as a powerful cat 4. Powerful hurricanes such as Dean usually go through eyewall replacement cycles with up and down fluctuations in intensity and this will be likely over the next 3-4 days.
Preparations:
At noon today TXDOT is suspending all construction on TX highways
All evac. Routes are being swept at this time for road hazards.
Fuel supplies are being surged to the coast and residents urged to keep tanks full in case an evacuation is called for.
If the forecast track holds mandatory evacuations will be needed for the lower TX coastline as early as Monday morning.
Residents along the TX coast should review hurricane preparation plans and be prepared to put these plans into effect as early as Monday if needed.
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- Extremeweatherguy
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11AM page 217) Discussions, Analysis
I was just looking at the NHC's Hurricane Force Wind Speed Probabilities - 120 Hours map. Something just doesn't seem right about it. It shows all of Jamaica under the yellow band, meaning 30-50% chance of hurricane force winds.
That would mean that any given spot in Jamaica has a better than 50-50 chance of escaping hurricane force winds altogether. That doesn't seem right. I thought everything points toward Jamaica getting slammed.
That would mean that any given spot in Jamaica has a better than 50-50 chance of escaping hurricane force winds altogether. That doesn't seem right. I thought everything points toward Jamaica getting slammed.
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852
URNT15 KNHC 181601
AF304 0604A DEAN HDOB 33 20070818
155100 1653N 06900W 6963 03140 0037 +085 +085 097069 070 045 015 03
155130 1652N 06900W 6972 03126 0035 +086 +086 097069 069 047 025 03
155200 1650N 06900W 6968 03131 0038 +084 +084 098071 072 046 031 03
155230 1649N 06900W 6964 03134 0030 +085 +085 098071 071 045 008 00
155300 1647N 06900W 6968 03126 0025 +089 +087 097074 075 047 008 00
155330 1646N 06900W 6966 03124 0025 +085 +085 096077 078 046 007 00
155400 1644N 06859W 6964 03125 0026 +084 +084 095076 077 044 007 00
155430 1643N 06859W 6967 03119 0027 +080 +080 096075 075 044 037 03
155500 1641N 06859W 6968 03114 0021 +083 +083 095074 074 047 010 00
155530 1640N 06859W 6970 03111 0004 +094 +089 094074 075 048 010 00
155600 1638N 06859W 6968 03111 0007 +088 +088 091074 076 049 011 03
155630 1636N 06859W 6965 03108 0009 +083 +083 090068 071 050 024 00
155700 1635N 06859W 6969 03102 0030 +065 +065 086078 079 051 031 03
155730 1633N 06859W 6967 03098 0027 +064 +064 094080 083 055 047 03
155800 1632N 06859W 6971 03091 0015 +069 +069 097083 085 059 015 03
155830 1630N 06859W 6963 03095 0001 +076 +076 096083 088 063 011 03
155900 1629N 06858W 6967 03084 9987 +081 +081 094085 086 063 042 03
155930 1627N 06858W 6969 03077 9982 +078 +078 092081 082 064 011 00
160000 1626N 06858W 6966 03075 9983 +072 +072 093080 082 064 011 03
160030 1624N 06858W 6965 03068 9976 +075 +075 096083 087 066 044 03
$$
Another shot at the center.
URNT15 KNHC 181601
AF304 0604A DEAN HDOB 33 20070818
155100 1653N 06900W 6963 03140 0037 +085 +085 097069 070 045 015 03
155130 1652N 06900W 6972 03126 0035 +086 +086 097069 069 047 025 03
155200 1650N 06900W 6968 03131 0038 +084 +084 098071 072 046 031 03
155230 1649N 06900W 6964 03134 0030 +085 +085 098071 071 045 008 00
155300 1647N 06900W 6968 03126 0025 +089 +087 097074 075 047 008 00
155330 1646N 06900W 6966 03124 0025 +085 +085 096077 078 046 007 00
155400 1644N 06859W 6964 03125 0026 +084 +084 095076 077 044 007 00
155430 1643N 06859W 6967 03119 0027 +080 +080 096075 075 044 037 03
155500 1641N 06859W 6968 03114 0021 +083 +083 095074 074 047 010 00
155530 1640N 06859W 6970 03111 0004 +094 +089 094074 075 048 010 00
155600 1638N 06859W 6968 03111 0007 +088 +088 091074 076 049 011 03
155630 1636N 06859W 6965 03108 0009 +083 +083 090068 071 050 024 00
155700 1635N 06859W 6969 03102 0030 +065 +065 086078 079 051 031 03
155730 1633N 06859W 6967 03098 0027 +064 +064 094080 083 055 047 03
155800 1632N 06859W 6971 03091 0015 +069 +069 097083 085 059 015 03
155830 1630N 06859W 6963 03095 0001 +076 +076 096083 088 063 011 03
155900 1629N 06858W 6967 03084 9987 +081 +081 094085 086 063 042 03
155930 1627N 06858W 6969 03077 9982 +078 +078 092081 082 064 011 00
160000 1626N 06858W 6966 03075 9983 +072 +072 093080 082 064 011 03
160030 1624N 06858W 6965 03068 9976 +075 +075 096083 087 066 044 03
$$
Another shot at the center.
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Re: HURRICANE DEAN - Threat Area - Jamaica, Caymans, Hispanola
jlauderdal wrote:Praxus wrote:Can jamaican shelters stand up to a direct hit from a cat 4 or 5?
The carribean in general is much better designed building wise to take these storms than the USA, that being said there are plenty of buildings with tin roofs that won't last on this island. Its also mountainous which doesn't help with the landslide and flooding problem. For those people that have made the drive from montego bay around the island know what I am talking about. This is a big one but the islands don't wither and cry foul every time a major comes along. It happens to often from the Bahamas down to the Antilles and west. Eluthara had 150 mph floyd go right over it a few years ago and they were back in business within a few weeks, bahamain buildings are well constructed but there are plenty of very well constructed buildings in Jamaica.
It wouldn't be pleasant if this thing comes right across but believe the Jamaicans will clean it up and get back to it asap and won;t have all the nonsense that went on say with wilma and south florida.
Eluthera and Jamaica are 2 different stories. There is a tremendous amount of poverty in Jamaica and many people simply do not have the money to board up their houses. As always, the more affluent will fare better while the poorer people will suffer more.
Make no mistake, if Dean hits Jamaica square on, there will be tremendous damage.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11AM page 217) Discussions, Analysis
Disclaimer: These are my amateur opinions and nothing else.
The reason the ULL right over my head here in SW Florida is moving west is because the ridge above Dean is nudging along west with Dean. That has a better chance of passing Dean over to the SE US ridge in a hand-off that keeps it west as the models are saying. It would not be unreasonable to assume Dean has sensed the node between these features, will bump NW, and then correct back into a general west 275-80 heading. We'll see if he pulls any surprises.
The reason the ULL right over my head here in SW Florida is moving west is because the ridge above Dean is nudging along west with Dean. That has a better chance of passing Dean over to the SE US ridge in a hand-off that keeps it west as the models are saying. It would not be unreasonable to assume Dean has sensed the node between these features, will bump NW, and then correct back into a general west 275-80 heading. We'll see if he pulls any surprises.
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