wxmann_91 wrote:canegrl04 wrote:For their sake,I hope Dean does pass them by to the North.We are in better position to recover from such a hurricane hit than they are
Much of northern Mex is fairly rural.
I was talking about Jamaica
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wxmann_91 wrote:canegrl04 wrote:For their sake,I hope Dean does pass them by to the North.We are in better position to recover from such a hurricane hit than they are
Much of northern Mex is fairly rural.
miamicanes177 wrote:wxmann_91 wrote:Not to mention, when was the last time a storm which ...
a) formed east of the Lesser Antilles
b) traversed the entire length of the Caribbean
c) made some sort of landfall on the Yucatan
...went on to make final landfall in TX?
Storms I think of are Gilbert, Emily, Janet, and Beulah, all of which made final landfall in nrn MX.
Allen very nearly made landfall on the Yucatan....it very nearly meets all 3 of your thresholds. The GFDL is forecasting Dean to meet all three of your thresholds and go on to make final landfall in Texas.
CrazyC83 wrote:I'd say it is holding its intensity right now as it goes through the ERC. Double eyewall reported in the vortex and the old southern wall is gone.
Cape Verde wrote:There is no way a more NW trend for the storm is better for Texas.
I remain very skeptical of a Mexican landfall other than the tip of the Yucatan, possibly.
I'm not even an amateur meteoroligist, although I can read some, but not most, weather maps, so give my opinion no weight. But I'm not blind, and I can see that the storm is tracking north of even this morning's projected track.
canegrl04 wrote:wxmann_91 wrote:canegrl04 wrote:For their sake,I hope Dean does pass them by to the North.We are in better position to recover from such a hurricane hit than they are
Much of northern Mex is fairly rural.
I was talking about Jamaica
HURAKAN wrote:
EWRC may be occurring but this is looking as good as ever.
CrazyC83 wrote:I'd say it is holding its intensity right now as it goes through the ERC. Double eyewall reported in the vortex and the old southern wall is gone.
805
URNT12 KNHC 181636
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 18/16:14:30Z
B. 15 deg 46 min N
069 deg 02 min W
C. 700 mb 2488 m
D. 119 kt
E. 018 deg 8 nm
F. 113 deg 128 kt
G. 018 deg 008 nm
H. 930 mb
I. 9 C/ 3050 m
J. 20 C/ 3046 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. OPEN S
M. C11
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0604A DEAN OB 21
MAX FL WIND 128 KT N QUAD 16:12:00 Z
NORTH EYEWALL HAS DOUBLE EYEWALL STRUCTURE
marcane_1973 wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:I'd say it is holding its intensity right now as it goes through the ERC. Double eyewall reported in the vortex and the old southern wall is gone.
I just hope if Dean is going through a ERC it does not end up being a bad dealio for Jamaica. Dean Could go into another RI phase right before making landfall in Jamaica which would be the worst case scenerio for them. All storms are different in the length of a ERC so I wonder how long it will take Mr Mean Deanto finish his????
How much has Dean wobbled last night? Was the GFDL straight NW motion accurate? I'm not sure about that. Anyhow, if it isn't, then the GFDL is too far north. In addition, the trend is south. Next run will likely show a Mex hit.
Allen did not make landfall on the Yucatan... it barely made it to TX. IF Dean does not hit the Yucatan, I will be a lot less confident of a MX landfall.
windnrain wrote:kurtpage wrote:btangy wrote:Dang, let the bashing of the GFS begin. I'm not sure why people are discounting it immediately. It's important not to let your own bias get in the way, whether you are aware of it or not.
The fact is the resolution of the GFS doesn't allow it to represent the inner core of the tropical cyclone very well. We don't have the computing power to do this. But, it does represent larger scale features important for the steering of the storm well, which is far more important than getting the strength of the storm correct. If it were the opposite, then one wouldn't expect the models (not only the GFS) to do the slightest bit well with the track forecasts despite the gains the models have made with synoptic scale predictions.
Not enough computing power? what is the GFS running on system wise?
Windows 95.
They get the blue screen of death each time Dean Wobbles.
weatherguru18 wrote:This is my opinion...I hope I'm not copy right enfringing.
Based on what the flip flopping of the gfdl and the gfs under-estimating everything, I think this cone that I have drawn is appropriate.
It leaves northern Mexico a real possibility as well as the rest of Texas and the western coast of Louisiana.
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