CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Category6]

As someone already mentioned, the west side looks a little flattened. Could there be some sheer up ahead?

[fox13weather]

FWIW, JB currently thinks Dean will move in and make landfall in south Texas. He thinks that there are just too many things that could happen over the next few days that it would need pretty much the perfect setup to move into Mexico (which he doesn't think will happen). He does have a worry that it could go further north than that, but ATM he does not think it will. Considering he got Erin pretty much dead on, I will definitely be listening to him closely with Dean too.

Erin? what forecasting challenges did Erin present?? Our production staff nailed that storm.

[WmE]

Dean is nowhere near an annular hurricane.

[cycloneye]

12z HWRF Animation

Also Mexico.

[Weatherfreak000]

The evidence still makes me wanna think this thing could turn more northward. I'm pretty much ruling out a Mexico hit for sure. It's gonna be a Texas storm this time around, no doubt I believe.

[Extremeweatherguy]

FWIW, JB currently thinks Dean will move in and make landfall in south Texas. He thinks that there are just too many things that could happen over the next few days that it would need pretty much the perfect setup to move into Mexico (which he doesn't think will happen). He does have a worry that it could go further north than that, but ATM he does not think it will. Considering he got Erin pretty much dead on, I will definitely be listening to him closely with Dean too.

Erin? what forecasting challenges did Erin present?? Our production staff nailed that storm.

He called for the storm and it's path well before it even developed...about a week or so out. Also, even when the models tried to bring the wave across the Yucatan into Mexico, he called for a Texas gulf coast storm from the the beginning; which was right.

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL Animation

12z GFDL animation above.Only model that goes to Texas.

[dwg71]

The evidence still makes me wanna think this thing could turn more northward. I'm pretty much ruling out a Mexico hit for sure. It's gonna be a Texas storm this time around, no doubt I believe.

Your believing has nothing to do with What odds can i get on betting on model consensous and nhc?

[Extremeweatherguy]

the 12z GFS ensemble consensus (AEMN) is in, and it has shifted further north again:



This means that the 12z GFS ensembles must be further north again too.

[WindRunner]

Dean REALLY looks like a Cat 5 now. extremely dense and thick CDO, perfect eye, almost annular structure....Jesus.

It's not as perfect of an eye as it could be . . . especially since it isn't clear in the slightest or as warm as it was previously.
As for annular, it actually still has a decent number of its bands, especially to the NE side of the storm. Once/if it sheds those bands and keeps the CDO going strong, then we can think about calling it annular.

[Weatherfreak000]

The evidence still makes me wanna think this thing could turn more northward. I'm pretty much ruling out a Mexico hit for sure. It's gonna be a Texas storm this time around, no doubt I believe.

Your believing has nothing to do with What odds can i get on betting on model consensous and nhc?

How disrespectful, don't belittle me dwg71, if you don't agree don't even respond.

I can come up with three good reasons why...

1. GFDL is the Outlieing model. MANY MANY times have I seen the GFDL nail a model shift. The GFDL does it best, period.

2. Dean is moving too far North. In fact, it's bound to clip Hispaniola on it's current motion....and that brings me to...

3. Dean is missing it's forecast points almost religiously to the North. It's showing the same movement GFDL has been nailing for several model runs.


I don't know about you, but i'm gonna follow the model that clearly is initializing this system the best right now.

[HURAKAN]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

The ULL is moving now at a pretty fast clip.

[caribepr]

Weirdly, we're getting the strongest weather here in the rainbands that we've gotten so far (nothing to what a hit is, but enough wind to tear part of the roof off my gazebo and drop the temps to 79 from upper 80's, produce whitecaps and waves across the bay out to sea). It is dying down again, but what a surprise!

[Ed Mahmoud]

PSU e-Wall page individual ensembles looks like a spray centered near the Rio Grand

[Innotech]

Dean is nowhere near an annular hurricane.

"almost annular structure"

[Wthrman13]

Dean REALLY looks like a Cat 5 now. extremely dense and thick CDO, perfect eye, almost annular structure....Jesus.

It's not as perfect of an eye as it could be . . . especially since it isn't clear in the slightest or as warm as it was previously.
As for annular, it actually still has a decent number of its bands, especially to the NE side of the storm. Once/if it sheds those bands and keeps the CDO going strong, then we can think about calling it annular.

Yep, it's nowhere near annular right now. Perhaps after it undergoes an ERC and emerges with a larger eye, it might have a shot at becoming annular, but such things are nowhere near being predictable with the current state of the science.

[CrazyC83]

I can't see it ever becoming annular. That normally requires a lot of open water...something Dean does not have.

[artist]

wow - caribepr - glad you are ok. A roof can be fixed!
Looks like a few intense bands may be moving over you all this afternoon.

[Derek Ortt]

waters are almost certainly too warm to allow this to become annular

[dwg71]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Been out of pocket for the week, had to spend some time with the family in Seaside Florida. I wore my blackberry out keeping tabs on dean. My call is a strong cat 2 going in about 100 miles south of the border. But Cancun and Cozumel will get ripped, as will Jamaica I am afraid.

ULL low is moving quickly to the west as gfs has been showing for days. High builds in Dean moves WNW for the next 24-48 hours and then takes a slightly more western track to pennisula and as a cat 4. dont get caught up in North or South of Jamaica, its a relatively small island it will pass very close if not over it. As ULL races west to texas Dean bumps head and moves at 275-280 until second landfall in mexico. Basically what NHC has predicted, but a deeper cut across YP to weaken it to cat 2 at second landfall.

Flame away.