CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Innotech]

I never said it was annular. why do people think I did? I said it has "al,most annular structure". Which basically means a really round shape and solid eye. I didnt say it WAS annular or would be.

[Beam]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Dean has rapidly intensified in the past 18 hours, and further organization appears likely. Dean is likely to become a Category Five hurricane before reaching southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, with potentially catastrophic results. Depending on how much land interaction occurs, Dean could weaken to a Category Four storm before reintensifying over the extremely warm waters and favorable upper air environment of the western Caribbean Sea. Note that the areas indicating Category Five strength are liable to fluctuations back to Category Four status due to ERCs and the natural difficulty of Category Five storms to maintain that status for very long.

It is also worth noting that Dean continues to increase in areal coverage, and could become quite large as it nears the Yucatan on Monday evening.

This forecast closely follows the NHC guidance for the first 60 hours, placing Jamaica in the bullseye, and keeping Dean at or near Category Five strength until it makes landfall on the Yucatan peninsula, which should at least weaken it to a Category Three storm (or less, depending on how long it stays over land). After 72 hours, the cone of error widens significantly. There is some potential for the weakness in the ridge to pull the storm northward, allowing it to just clip or even completely miss the Yucatan peninsula, in which case it would not weaken significantly, and would likely landfall on the central Texas coast. Otherwise, it will cross the peninsula and landfall on the lower Texas or northern Mexican coast as a Category Four storm.

This forecast provides equal chances of each solution for now, being somewhat right of the NHC guidance. Note that weakening will not be as significant as indicated in the graphic if the storm has little or no interaction with the Yucatan peninsula. Interests in the central and western Gulf coast should closely monitor Dean's progress and begin making preparations for a potentially deadly hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico in 72-96 hours.

[Tommedic]

Despite the reliance many have on the models, I, an untrained individual, just have this to say: Throughout our history of monitoring storms, with or without computers, models, and satellites, we have seen many storms do things that were NOT projected. For this reason and this reason alone, we should all be emphasizing that there is always a possibility that this storm may go south, north, or even be right on track with the current forecast. However, we must be responsible individuals and encourage preparation, preparation, preparation... for all that live in and around the Caribbean or GOM. Meanwhile, living in the Cape Fear region, I will continue to reevaluate my preparations and hopefully learn from those individuals that must suffer thru the issues that arise from experiences with this and many more storms. In addition I will pray for a miracle with this storm and that it will move in a path that causes the least harm.

[Eyewall]

THIS IS AN ANNULAR HURRICANE:



THIS IS NOT:

[cycloneye]

Weirdly, we're getting the strongest weather here in the rainbands that we've gotten so far (nothing to what a hit is, but enough wind to tear part of the roof off my gazebo and drop the temps to 79 from upper 80's, produce whitecaps and waves across the bay out to sea). It is dying down again, but what a surprise!

Here in San Juan,we got a band earlier that brought winds in the range of 35-40 mph in gusts.Now it has calmed here too,but downstream is some more so wait for that over there and I will get more too.

[jabman98]

Can someone explain what's up with that bright orange track right into the AL/FL border? That seems way out of line with the other models.

[swimaster20]

That's just a model based on historical climatology. Don't pay any attention to it.

[dwg71]

The evidence still makes me wanna think this thing could turn more northward. I'm pretty much ruling out a Mexico hit for sure. It's gonna be a Texas storm this time around, no doubt I believe.

Your believing has nothing to do with What odds can i get on betting on model consensous and nhc?

How disrespectful, don't belittle me dwg71, if you don't agree don't even respond.

I can come up with three good reasons why...

1. GFDL is the Outlieing model. MANY MANY times have I seen the GFDL nail a model shift. The GFDL does it best, period.

2. Dean is moving too far North. In fact, it's bound to clip Hispaniola on it's current motion....and that brings me to...

3. Dean is missing it's forecast points almost religiously to the North. It's showing the same movement GFDL has been nailing for several model runs.


I don't know about you, but i'm gonna follow the model that clearly is initializing this system the best right now.

Sorry was only jk, hence smiley face. Please accept my apology.

1. GFDL has been all over the place. LA, TX, Mexico, Houston, Brownsville and so on. Its been very erratic.

2. Dean is on NHC path and will be very, very close to Jamaica.

3. Yesterday he missed to the south almost religously, but still the overall NHC path has not change for 3+ days.

I will need more model support and NHC changing track to buy a tx landfall any further north than brownsville.

Again Sorry.

[jlauderdal]

I agree with msbee. I have been listening to Jamaican radio and they seem to have good organization and information, the issue here will be the quality of the infrastructure and the availability of resources for recovery. I have been to Ocho Rios and it seems to me, based on what I saw there, that on both fronts the answer is: less than what is required to deal with a storm of this magnitude, especially one hitting Kingston head on, as this one is forecast to do.

Jamaicans are organized, have a good attitude and experience to deal with these storms. They will get this through better than the USA ever would. Not everyone has a zinc roof on the island folks.

[PTrackerLA]

Looking at the models I'd expect the NHC to shift even FURTHER south with their next update. Looks like the US may be dodge the bullet if this holds!

[mightymouse]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

The ULL is moving now at a pretty fast clip.

what does this mean in reference to deans future track????

[Eyewall]

Watch this loop.. looks like the eye is actually starting to clear out

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

[jabman98]

:uarrow: That's just a model based on historical climatology. Don't pay any attention to it.

Oh.....thanks. What's it used for then? Why do they include it?

[HURAKAN]

LATEST.

[Windtalker2]

The evidence still makes me wanna think this thing could turn more northward. I'm pretty much ruling out a Mexico hit for sure. It's gonna be a Texas storm this time around, no doubt I believe.

Your believing has nothing to do with What odds can i get on betting on model consensous and nhc?

How disrespectful, don't belittle me dwg71, if you don't agree don't even respond.

I can come up with three good reasons why...

1. GFDL is the Outlieing model. MANY MANY times have I seen the GFDL nail a model shift. The GFDL does it best, period.

2. Dean is moving too far North. In fact, it's bound to clip Hispaniola on it's current motion....and that brings me to...

3. Dean is missing it's forecast points almost religiously to the North. It's showing the same movement GFDL has been nailing for several model runs.


I don't know about you, but i'm gonna follow the model that clearly is initializing this system the best right now.

I agree also. If Dean clips Hispaniola and trugs closer to cuba then you can throw those model rus out the window.....Just my opinion. The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[jrod]

Wilma wasn't an annular hurricane and look what it did. A thin layer of clouds in a cocentric eye is not going to affect the strength. This storm looks very healthy to me and once the EWRC is over I'd be suprised if it is not a little bit stronger. Dean's next stop is Jamaica, I dont think it will be safe make a sound guess on the mainland landfall until it is pass the Yucatan.

[windstorm99]

Wow....Dean looks incredible on visible imagery.

[artist]

here is a link of some pics from St. Lucia. From these, hopefully the entire island faired this well. Seems to be mostly trees came down where these were taken.

http://www.lotties-shenanigans.com/Alde ... ALR-767LAN

These were posted on http://www.stormcarib.com

[dhall21]

dean looks amazing in visible imagery...

[jacindc]

the 12z GFS ensemble consensus (AEMN) is in, and it has shifted further north again:

This means that the 12z GFS ensembles must be further north again too.

Someone posted a link to the 12z ensembles a page back, and everyone of them except one was north of the Tx/Mx border. I'm surprised there wasn't more discussion, since again, just like yesterday, the operational GFS is the southern outlier of all of its ensembles....

EDIT: Here's the link, although it says 18Z 8/18.

And it was two south of the border (WAAAAAAY south), my apologies.