CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

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jhamps10

Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (2 PM page 224) Discussions, Analysis

#8321 Postby jhamps10 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 2:58 pm

tolakram wrote:
windstorm99 wrote:
Keep in mind that they update those points every few hours.

Check out the history I posted in the models thread, you can see the most recent northward shift they made.


Again remember hurricanes do not travel in a straight line and most of the time they wobble up and down but the general trend to me is right on line with the current NHC forcast track.


yeah after they updated the points on the satellite, but before then it was a good .1-.3 north of the forecast. wobble or not, this is big for Jamaica, any small wobble right now could mean the difference between a slam dead center, to missing it to the north, or vice versa.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (2 PM page 224) Discussions, Analysis

#8322 Postby canegrl04 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 2:59 pm

If Dean does travel North of Jamaica,we should see a big swing north by the models after that
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (2 PM page 224) Discussions, Analysis

#8323 Postby miamicanes177 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 2:59 pm

windstorm99 wrote:Again remember hurricanes do not travel in a straight line and most of the time they wobble up and down but the general trend to me is right on line with the current NHC forcast track.
This is because NHC shifted the track north on the 10am update because their track was too far south.
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Re: Re:

#8324 Postby mnjb28 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:01 pm

jrod wrote:
mnjb28 wrote:I sure hope it dosent fell a weekness from that ull. That would worst case,but im still with NHC as of now exept the direct hit on jamica.


why would that be worse case?

Im thinking it would miss Jamaica to the north and cross the west section of CUBA because it would be feeling a weekness. Not saying this would happen just a thought.?
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jhamps10

Re: Re:

#8325 Postby jhamps10 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:02 pm

mnjb28 wrote:
jrod wrote:
mnjb28 wrote:I sure hope it dosent fell a weekness from that ull. That would worst case,but im still with NHC as of now exept the direct hit on jamica.


why would that be worse case?

Im thinking it would miss Jamaica to the north and cross the west section of CUBA because it would be feeling a weekness. Not saying this would happen just a thought.?


that would be a logical thought too. I don't think we will see it cross the western end of cuba, but going north of Jamaica is very possible right now.
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#8326 Postby Normandy » Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:02 pm

Well since we are so quick to point out the NW wobbles, Dean has just taken a W wobble.
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Re: Re:

#8327 Postby Aquawind » Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:03 pm

Houstonia wrote:
Aquawind wrote:Jamaica is next for eyewall impact. However I think Dean will sidestep,jog,wobble along the shoreline north or south and not go directly over the mountainous island as forecast. That could alter the path but not by much..seems the ridge has control until much later in the period either way. Now if Dean outright misses Jamaica to the north unlike the models that could be a sign the ridge is weaker and it could be a sign it will move further north into the GOM imo.


does anyone have a link to Jamaica radio? I think we had one posted years ago on one of the forums.. thanks.


Here are some via google..

http://www.radiojamaica.com/

http://www.go-jamaica.com/power/

http://www.rjr94fm.com/
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Re: Re:

#8328 Postby southerngale » Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:04 pm

Houstonia wrote:
Aquawind wrote:Jamaica is next for eyewall impact. However I think Dean will sidestep,jog,wobble along the shoreline north or south and not go directly over the mountainous island as forecast. That could alter the path but not by much..seems the ridge has control until much later in the period either way. Now if Dean outright misses Jamaica to the north unlike the models that could be a sign the ridge is weaker and it could be a sign it will move further north into the GOM imo.


does anyone have a link to Jamaica radio? I think we had one posted years ago on one of the forums.. thanks.


It's in the Sticky thread at the top of this forum. :)

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=97207
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Re:

#8329 Postby miamicanes177 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:05 pm

Normandy wrote:Well since we are so quick to point out the NW wobbles, Dean has just taken a W wobble.
Not that I see. Continues to move wnw just like the 1pm package said.
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models

#8330 Postby lamsalfl » Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:06 pm

jhamps10 wrote:
tolakram wrote:History:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/gr ... p_5W.shtml

They've moved the track north as of late without much notice. I'm becoming convinced this thing is going north of the current track, but we'll see. I've been pretty much exactly wrong before. :)


I see your point there tolakram. Also notice as we go along over the past 3 days it has gone from South tip of Jamaica, to now dead center if not the north-central part of the island. I'm agreeing with ya that it's going north of forecast points.


exactly. A couple days ago it looked like it was going 50-100 miles south of Jamaica. Now we're talking about skimming the north coast.
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Re: HURRICANE DEAN - Threat Area - Jamaica, Caymans, Hispanola

#8331 Postby msbee » Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:06 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
aguaviva wrote:I agree with msbee. I have been listening to Jamaican radio and they seem to have good organization and information, the issue here will be the quality of the infrastructure and the availability of resources for recovery. I have been to Ocho Rios and it seems to me, based on what I saw there, that on both fronts the answer is: less than what is required to deal with a storm of this magnitude, especially one hitting Kingston head on, as this one is forecast to do.


Jamaicans are organized, have a good attitude and experience to deal with these storms. They will get this through better than the USA ever would. Not everyone has a zinc roof on the island folks.


Sorry, I have to disagree once again. Have you ever lived in the Caribbean? living in the Caribbean gives you a different perspective. You realize the housing on many islands is just plain not up to par.
Of course not everyone has a zinc roof. But, believe me, there are plenty of people on that island living in substandard housing and in rural areas. I was just talking to a friend of mine here who is from Jamaica. he has been calling home regularly.he said a lot of people don't even realize a storm is coming , especially in the rural areas and he said many cannot afford to protect their home properly. They just do not have the resources.
He sends money home all the time to his family so they can improve on their housing..Otherwise they simply do not have the resources.
He also said many people who live by the sea , like his grandmother, will just refuse to leave, having a whatever happened happens attitude.
For you to say that Jamaica will get through this better than the USA ever did is just not accurate, although I do admit nothing could be much worse than the Katrina fiasco.
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Re: Re:

#8332 Postby Stormavoider » Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:07 pm

miamicanes177 wrote:
Normandy wrote:Well since we are so quick to point out the NW wobbles, Dean has just taken a W wobble.
Not that I see. Continues to move wnw just like the 1pm package said.

The last couple frames look due west to me.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (2 PM page 224) Discussions, Analysis

#8333 Postby windstorm99 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:08 pm

Folks the average is clearly WNW as forcasted by the national hurricane center....Dont focus on every wobble cause whats important is 5-6 hour trends which clearly has been WNW.
Last edited by windstorm99 on Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:09 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Re:

#8334 Postby lamsalfl » Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:08 pm

Stormavoider wrote:
miamicanes177 wrote:
Normandy wrote:Well since we are so quick to point out the NW wobbles, Dean has just taken a W wobble.
Not that I see. Continues to move wnw just like the 1pm package said.

The last couple frames look due west to me.


The last frame looks like a NW wobble to me.
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#8335 Postby mnjb28 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:09 pm

Slight stair steps
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (2 PM page 224) Discussions, Analysis

#8336 Postby weatherguru18 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:10 pm

I would argue that the last couple of frames looked like it was on more of a NW wobble than a WNW or W...I'm still calling Brownsville as landfall point...but I may be WAY wrong if this goes north of Jamaica. That means that the ridge may be weaker than forecasted.

One thing that worries me is evacuations for Galveston are supposed to start Monday. IF the models show a south Texas/N. Mexico landfall...Houston/Galveston may be caught off-guard.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (2 PM page 224) Discussions, Analysis

#8337 Postby miamicanes177 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:12 pm

This looks like it is gearing up for a rapid intensification cycle again...and it's already a cat 4 :eek:
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models

#8338 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:12 pm

It looks like it is dead on for the forecast track mark on the NOAA Nesdis floater.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (2 PM page 224) Discussions, Analysis

#8339 Postby lamsalfl » Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:12 pm

We might know A LOT more in 6 hours if this thing might go north of Jamaica or not. 6 hours will be enough frames to see if it's on course to graze the island to the north or not.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (2 PM page 224) Discussions, Analysis

#8340 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:13 pm

windstorm99 wrote:Folks the average is clearly WNW as forcasted by the national hurricane center....Dont focus on every wobble cause whats important is 5-6 hour trends which clearly has been WNW.


Amen! The folks that are focusing on every wobble are cracking me up!!!! Intense hurricanes wobble, that's what they do!
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