CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
southerngale
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 27418
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)

Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (2 PM page 224) Discussions, Analysis

#8341 Postby southerngale » Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:14 pm

windstorm99 wrote:Folks the average is clearly WNW as forcasted by the national hurricane center....Dont focus on every wobble cause whats important is 5-6 hour trends which clearly has been WNW.


Nobody is focusing on every wobble, but it has been moving north of forecast points (which were then adjusted), as was pointed out to you by several people. That could make a huge difference for a lot of people... especially those in Jamaica in the short term.
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20032
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models

#8342 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:15 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:It looks like it is dead on for the forecast track mark on the NOAA Nesdis floater.


That's my point, the targets keep moving to match the actual motion. The targets just updated, prior to that the forecast points were south of the storm.

Not that this is wrong, these are forecast points and forecasts can only be so accurate.
0 likes   

User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (2 PM page 224) Discussions, Analysis

#8343 Postby Normandy » Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:15 pm

windstorm99 wrote:Folks the average is clearly WNW as forcasted by the national hurricane center....Dont focus on every wobble cause whats important is 5-6 hour trends which clearly has been WNW.



Im just pointing out the W wobbles since everyone is quick to point out the NW wobbles....Just wobble watching here.As for your 5-6 hour trend....you must admit that since yesterday Dean has trended pretty far north.

Anyways, latest fram shows even a slightly south component....i think Dean's inner eyewall is rotating around the outer wind maxima now (In a similiar manner Wilma's eye did, but not as pronounced).
Last edited by Normandy on Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9490
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (2 PM page 224) Discussions, Analysis

#8344 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:16 pm

Observation: Anyone notice the west outflow of Dean has become flatten out some? ULL starting to have somewhat of an effect? Not sure if its enough to influence track. That ULL is booking it WSW into the GOM. It is slightly north of forecast points. IMO, the key to all of this is how strong the ridge is forecasted to be after the ULL exits.....
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#8345 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:16 pm

anything north of the forecast points is AWFUL... could bring the eyewall ovr Haiti
0 likes   

Stormavoider
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 671
Joined: Sat Jul 01, 2006 4:37 pm
Location: Spring Hill Fl.

Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (2 PM page 224) Discussions, Analysis

#8346 Postby Stormavoider » Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:16 pm

weatherguru18 wrote:I would argue that the last couple of frames looked like it was on more of a NW wobble than a WNW or W...I'm still calling Brownsville as landfall point...but I may be WAY wrong if this goes north of Jamaica. That means that the ridge may be weaker than forecasted.

One thing that worries me is evacuations for Galveston are supposed to start Monday. IF the models show a south Texas/N. Mexico landfall...Houston/Galveston may be caught off-guard.

These last few frames look west. vis loop
0 likes   

weatherguru18

Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (2 PM page 224) Discussions, Analysis

#8347 Postby weatherguru18 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:17 pm

Hey...are any of you guys talented enough to make a map/graphic showing the forecasted track by the NHC and where Dean actually tracked before they were adjusted? I'd love to show one of my buddies this. He is one of the ones who changes his opinion of landfall with every model run.
0 likes   

mnjb28
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 13
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2004 2:00 pm
Location: Luling, La

#8348 Postby mnjb28 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:18 pm

remember that song weebles wooble but they dont fall down . sorry i couldnt resist. :lol: :lol: :lol:
0 likes   

User avatar
perk
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 825
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 9:35 am
Location: Richmond Texas

Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (2 PM page 224) Discussions, Analysis

#8349 Postby perk » Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:19 pm

southerngale wrote:
windstorm99 wrote:Folks the average is clearly WNW as forcasted by the national hurricane center....Dont focus on every wobble cause whats important is 5-6 hour trends which clearly has been WNW.


Nobody is focusing on every wobble, but it has been moving north of forecast points (which were then adjusted), as was pointed out to you by several people. That could make a huge difference for a lot of people... especially those in Jamaica in the short term.

southerngale i could'nt have said it better myself. :D
0 likes   

User avatar
canegrl04
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2486
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2004 5:37 pm
Location: Texas

Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (2 PM page 224) Discussions, Analysis

#8350 Postby canegrl04 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:19 pm

The track has shifted NORTH .The models stated out with Dean passing south.Now the NHC track has shifted to a smack of Jamaica.If Dean passes to the North of Jamaica,theres no question this will not be a Mexico hit
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (2 PM page 224) Discussions, Analysis

#8351 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:20 pm

here is a good site for satellite loops...

http://www1.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rms ... PICAL.html

I don't see any "west" wobble as some are saying. All I see is a continued WNW motion with may be a slight NW wobble toward the end of the current loops.

BTW: I used a ruler to extrapolate the current movement and if nothing changes this should go just north of Jamaica.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

#8352 Postby Normandy » Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:21 pm

It should be noted that *if* Dean passes to the N of Jamaica, some immense weakening should take place due land interaction with three mountainous landmasses.
0 likes   

User avatar
Cape Verde
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 564
Age: 70
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:53 pm
Location: Houston area

Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (2 PM page 224) Discussions, Analysis

#8353 Postby Cape Verde » Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:22 pm

There is no question that the storm has trended north of earlier forecast tracks. We saw the forecast track move north with advisory 4 hours ago.

The question is whether it will continue to move north of the forecast track, or whether the NHC has it nailed for now.
0 likes   

User avatar
Pearl River
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 825
Age: 66
Joined: Fri Dec 09, 2005 6:07 pm
Location: SELa

Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (2 PM page 224) Discussions, Analysis

#8354 Postby Pearl River » Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:23 pm

EWG said
here is a good site for satellite loops...

http://www1.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rms ... PICAL.html

I don't see any "west" wobble as some are saying. All I see is a continued WNW motion with may be a slight NW wobble toward the end of the current loops.

BTW: I also used a ruler to extrapolate the current movement and if nothing changes this should go just north of Jamaica.


I do the same thing. I also use the ruler placing it straight across the monitor at the first frame where the center is and then watch the movement that way.
0 likes   

dwg71
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2349
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:34 pm

#8355 Postby dwg71 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:23 pm

they were all south of points yesterday, overall pattern has been right on nhc track. They have had it hitting YP and then into Mex for a few days now.
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20032
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (2 PM page 224) Discussions, Analysis

#8356 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:23 pm

canegrl04 wrote:The track has shifted NORTH .The models stated out with Dean passing south.Now the NHC track has shifted to a smack of Jamaica.If Dean passes to the North of Jamaica,theres no question this will not be a Mexico hit


I wouldn't go that far. The point is that the forecast tracking on the satellite views are constantly updated. It could be north of the track one minute then, after an update, right on track again. Viewing the history, or as someone here before said, riding the snake, is the best way to see the forecast track history.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/gr ... p_5W.shtml

I posted this in the model thread, I probably should have posted it here.
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

#8357 Postby RL3AO » Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:24 pm

They won't make it a 5 without recon and theres no recon out there.
0 likes   

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9490
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re:

#8358 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:24 pm

Normandy wrote:It should be noted that *if* Dean passes to the N of Jamaica, some immense weakening should take place due land interaction with three mountainous landmasses.



As long as the core remains intact I would expect some weakening but not by a whole lot....
0 likes   

dhall21
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 16
Joined: Sat Aug 18, 2007 8:36 am

#8359 Postby dhall21 » Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:25 pm

Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on August 18, 2007

...Outer fringes of Hurricane Dean lashing the South Coast of
Hispaniola...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the South Coast of the
Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the Haiti-Dominican
Republic border...and for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from
the Haiti-Dominican Republic border to Port-au-Prince. A Hurricane
Warning is also in effect for Jamaica. A Hurricane Warning means
that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area
within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning is still in effect along the South
Coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo engano westward to
Barahona...and for coast of Haiti north of Port-au-Prince to the
northern Haiti-Dominican Republic border. A Tropical Storm Warning
is also effect for portions of Cuba...from the province of Camaguey
eastward to the province of Guantanamo. A Tropical Storm Warning
means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cayman Islands. A
Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within
the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the western Caribbean...including
western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula...should closely monitor the
progress of Dean.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

At 500 PM AST...2100z...the eye of Hurricane Dean was located
near latitude 16.1 north...longitude 70.2 west or about 455 miles...
735 km...east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 165 miles...
270 km...south of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic.

Dean is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph...30 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24
hours. On this track...the core of the hurricane will continue to
move south of Hispaniola today and will be near Jamaica on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph...240 km/hr...with
higher gusts. Dean is an extremely dangerous category four
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations
in intensity are likely during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230
miles...370 km. Punta Cana in the Dominican Republic has been
experiencing tropical storm force wind gusts for the past several
hours.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 930 mb...27.46 inches.
Storm total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches can be expected over
Jamaica...with maximum amounts of up to 20 inches possible. Amounts
of 4 to 6 inches are possible over southern Haiti with maximum
totals of 10 inches possible. The remainder of the Dominican
Republic...Haiti and eastern Cuba...could receive 2 to 4 inches of
rain with maximum amounts up to 7 inches possible. Additional rain
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are possible over Puerto Rico...with
isolated storm total amounts of 5 inches. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 7 to 9 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...is
possible near the center of Dean in the Hurricane Warning area.

Repeating the 500 PM AST position...16.1 N...70.2 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...150
mph. Minimum central pressure...930 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

STILL CAT 4 150MPH
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

#8360 Postby RL3AO » Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:25 pm

984
WTNT44 KNHC 182024
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007

THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF DEAN
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INTO THE EYE MEASURED 930 MB AND THE REPORTED WINDS SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE CREW OBSERVED A
DOUBLE EYEWALL AND THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN SHORT TERM FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION IS OUTSTANDING WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE...NUMEROUS
SPIRAL BANDS AND AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW. WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW
SHEAR AND VERY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
AND YUCATAN...SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE. IN
FACT...DEAN COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE AT ANY TIME BEFORE IT REACHES YUCATAN.

THE HURRICANE IS HEADING ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OR 285
DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. THE STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST GLOBAL
MODEL RUNS. THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK
OR SPEED THROUGH 5 DAYS...BUT PERHAPS WITH A SLIGHT TURN MORE TO THE
WEST IN A DAY OR SO. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT BRINGS THE
HURRICANE OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES
ALONG WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND KEEPS DEAN IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OR SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY DAY FOUR. THERE
COULD BE VERY UNCERTAIN DAYS AHEAD SINCE THE GFDL HAS HAD A VERY
RELIABLE TRACK RECORD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 16.1N 70.2W 130 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 16.8N 72.6W 135 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 17.7N 76.0W 135 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 18.5N 79.3W 125 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 83.0W 140 KT
72HR VT 21/1800Z 21.5N 90.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 22/1800Z 23.0N 96.0W 105 KT
120HR VT 23/1800Z 24.5N 101.5W 40 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
0 likes   


Return to “2007”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests