CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[cycloneye]

[Extremeweatherguy]

Amazingly the forecast track just updated and they moved the track south a tad, still over Jamaica. I trust the NHC, so far, so they must know something we don't.

no, they are probably just following the model consensus...which shows the storm hitting where their forecast track has it. If the consensus shifts, expect their track to as well.

[vacanechaser]

full discussion

000
WTNT44 KNHC 182024
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007

THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF DEAN
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INTO THE EYE MEASURED 930 MB AND THE REPORTED WINDS SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE CREW OBSERVED A
DOUBLE EYEWALL AND THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN SHORT TERM FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION IS OUTSTANDING WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE...NUMEROUS
SPIRAL BANDS AND AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW. WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW
SHEAR AND VERY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
AND YUCATAN...SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE. IN
FACT...DEAN COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE AT ANY TIME BEFORE IT REACHES YUCATAN.

THE HURRICANE IS HEADING ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OR 285
DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. THE STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST GLOBAL
MODEL RUNS. THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK
OR SPEED THROUGH 5 DAYS...BUT PERHAPS WITH A SLIGHT TURN MORE TO THE
WEST IN A DAY OR SO. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT BRINGS THE
HURRICANE OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES
ALONG WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND KEEPS DEAN IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OR SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY DAY FOUR. THERE
COULD BE VERY UNCERTAIN DAYS AHEAD SINCE THE GFDL HAS HAD A VERY
RELIABLE TRACK RECORD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 16.1N 70.2W 130 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 16.8N 72.6W 135 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 17.7N 76.0W 135 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 18.5N 79.3W 125 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 83.0W 140 KT
72HR VT 21/1800Z 21.5N 90.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 22/1800Z 23.0N 96.0W 105 KT
120HR VT 23/1800Z 24.5N 101.5W 40 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[JessRomero]

Not to interrupt ya'll but have question does beaumont area still need to worry about dean because I am thinkin he is goin to pull a rita for some reason and lowes is getting low on ply wood and I just want to be ready for this monster of a storm! Any educated guess would help me out storm2k is doin alot better then the NHC that is forsure!

[artist]

Not to interrupt ya'll but have question does beaumont area still need to worry about dean because I am thinkin he is goin to pull a rita for some reason and lowes is getting low on ply wood and I just want to be ready for this monster of a storm! Any educated guess would help me out storm2k is doin alot better then the NHC that is forsure!

Better safe than sorry - you can return the plywood if you don't use it.

[Ptarmigan]

Not to interrupt ya'll but have question does beaumont area still need to worry about dean because I am thinkin he is goin to pull a rita for some reason and lowes is getting low on ply wood and I just want to be ready for this monster of a storm! Any educated guess would help me out storm2k is doin alot better then the NHC that is forsure!

In my opinion, it is best to keep an eye on Dean. I would start thinking about it more on Sunday and no later than Monday. I would take any of those computer models with a grain of salt. They can be right and wrong at times. Better to play it safe than be sorry later.

[Stormcenter]

I don't like this statement from the 5pm discussion.

THERE COULD BE VERY UNCERTAIN DAYS AHEAD SINCE THE GFDL HAS HAD A VERY
RELIABLE TRACK RECORD.

[hial2]

Not to interrupt ya'll but have question does beaumont area still need to worry about dean because I am thinkin he is goin to pull a rita for some reason and lowes is getting low on ply wood and I just want to be ready for this monster of a storm! Any educated guess would help me out storm2k is doin alot better then the NHC that is forsure!

If Dean threatens,Lowes and HD et al will truck in hundreds of plywood sheets to sell..I would keep watching,though you should have already had bought home protection since June 1st..

[windnrain]

Buy your plywood now. If you dont need it, you can always save it, because some day, you likely WILL need it.

[ROCK]

Not to interrupt ya'll but have question does beaumont area still need to worry about dean because I am thinkin he is goin to pull a rita for some reason and lowes is getting low on ply wood and I just want to be ready for this monster of a storm! Any educated guess would help me out storm2k is doin alot better then the NHC that is forsure!

If Dean threatens,Lowes and HD et al will truck in hundreds of plywood sheets to sell..I would keep watching,though you should have already had bought home protection since June 1st..

you can forget about Plylocks....they were sold out yesterday morning...

sorry to get off topic...move if need be

[canegrl04]

I don't like this statement from the 5pm discussion.

THERE COULD BE VERY UNCERTAIN DAYS AHEAD SINCE THE GFDL HAS HAD A VERY
RELIABLE TRACK RECORD.

They are saying that although they are going with the consensus models,they believe GFDL is a better guide

[weatherguru18]

I don't like this statement from the 5pm discussion.

THERE COULD BE VERY UNCERTAIN DAYS AHEAD SINCE THE GFDL HAS HAD A VERY
RELIABLE TRACK RECORD.

THEN WHY SHIFT THE DAMN TRACK SOUTH?!?!?! This is so annoying. It is giving EVERYBODY on the middle and upper Texas coast, includng my parents, a VERY false sense of security!

[NCSUwpack]

I got in touch with my twin sister in Jamaica and she said that they are doing all they can to get ready. She said that our father is up on a ladder pulling all the coconuts off the trees right now. I was also told that a man was going in the neighborhood offering private flights out for $1000 per person! Geez can you believe that! All I could do was offer my prayers and I hope everyone on here offers prayers to all Jamaica. She said it was a beautiful day today and didn't even seem like anything is out there coming. She'll be giving me more updates as Dean gets closer, if everyone would like me to pass on information as I recieve from them I will.

BTW I love this music on Power 106FM.

[perk]

One thing to note from the 5PM Disco:

There
could be very uncertain days ahead since the GFDL has had a very
reliable track record.

KatDaddy that caught my attention also, i think they're really uncomfortable betting against the GDFL.

[StormScanWx]

Why are the CLIP and CLP5 models going in a more northerly fashion than all the rest of the current models? Are those Climatology models?

[Normandy]

Wow look at Dean....Big nasty eye looks like it might come out. It appears that any westward/wsw/n/nw wobbles have been influenced by cyclonic loops being done by the inner eyewall. Seems like a mean motion of WNW

[Stratusxpeye]

Has Kingston and or the cayman islands ever suffered a direct hit from a category 5 storm? Or a 150mph storm? What would be left of these places if this verifies and the eye tracks straight through these places at 150+mph? That's a scary though. It looks like it is headed dead on for kingston and straight through the island. After that intesification straight through the caymans. Craziness.

[ROCK]

I don't like this statement from the 5pm discussion.

THERE COULD BE VERY UNCERTAIN DAYS AHEAD SINCE THE GFDL HAS HAD A VERY
RELIABLE TRACK RECORD.

THEN WHY SHIFT THE DAMN TRACK SOUTH?!?!?! This is so annoying. It is giving EVERYBODY on the middle and upper Texas coast, includng my parents, a VERY false sense of security!

I agree....parents, neighbors, friends at work...they woke up and saw MX and said "well thats where its going"....

[tolakram]

no, they are probably just following the model consensus...which shows the storm hitting where their forecast track has it. If the consensus shifts, expect their track to as well.

If Dean hits Jamaica it will greatly increase my confidence in the NHC because right now I just don't see how it can keep from going north. And to a previous poster, going south of a track and then north doesn't really mean anything. For one, they kept changing th track, and second I think it's going further north of the track than it ever did on the south side.

-- dead horse ... I'll watch and see and pray for Jamaica.

[weatherguru18]

You know the only difference between a 150mph Cat 4 and a 156mph Cat 5 is the nomenclature. That's it. Expect the same type of damage.