CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Extremeweatherguy]

I don't like this statement from the 5pm discussion.

THERE COULD BE VERY UNCERTAIN DAYS AHEAD SINCE THE GFDL HAS HAD A VERY
RELIABLE TRACK RECORD.

THEN WHY SHIFT THE DAMN TRACK SOUTH?!?!?! This is so annoying. It is giving EVERYBODY on the middle and upper Texas coast, includng my parents, a VERY false sense of security!

I agree....parents, neighbors, friends at work...they woke up and saw MX and said "well thats where its going"....

Though I think this will likely miss giving Houston serious impacts, I really wouldn't be surprised to see a sudden track shift toward the last minute aiming more at the TX coast. It always seems like the worst storms are the ones that catch you by surprise.

The biggest concern to me right now is that the high ends up being weaker than predicted or further east than predicted. Either of those scenarios would be bad news.

[vaffie]

Why are the CLIP and CLP5 models going in a more northerly fashion than all the rest of the current models? Are those Climatology models?

Yes, that's pretty much what climatology models do, they keep headed temporarily in the same direction and then they bend north.

[ROCK]

Why are the CLIP and CLP5 models going in a more northerly fashion than all the rest of the current models? Are those Climatology models?

yep, nice to look at but worthless...

[Derek Ortt]

just put out the 5 p.m. update... very strongly worded to convey the danger as Jamaica will likely be leveled unless there is a change in track (and north means Haiti will be leveled)

[perk]

I don't like this statement from the 5pm discussion.

THERE COULD BE VERY UNCERTAIN DAYS AHEAD SINCE THE GFDL HAS HAD A VERY
RELIABLE TRACK RECORD.

THEN WHY SHIFT THE DAMN TRACK SOUTH?!?!?! This is so annoying. It is giving EVERYBODY on the middle and upper Texas coast, includng my parents, a VERY false sense of security!

I understand where you're coming from, it irritates me also , but like EWG said they're going with the concensus.

[wx247]

When will the next model updates be available?

[jhamps10]

I don't like this statement from the 5pm discussion.

THERE COULD BE VERY UNCERTAIN DAYS AHEAD SINCE THE GFDL HAS HAD A VERY
RELIABLE TRACK RECORD.

THEN WHY SHIFT THE DAMN TRACK SOUTH?!?!?! This is so annoying. It is giving EVERYBODY on the middle and upper Texas coast, includng my parents, a VERY false sense of security!

yeah, even my parents said well they are forecasting it to go to mexico, that's where it's going. I had to bite my toungue.


my confidence in NHC right now is low, however if this does hit Jamaica then I will eat crow, but right now it's on a track of just north of the island from extrapolating from the satellite image.

[TexasF6]

I think Dean may skirt NORTH of Jamacia.....the WNW movement is apparent in the loops....also, the WV shows that TUTT's influence, and Erin is still in Texas...............Anywhere from Corpus to Houston is my bet.....this is only my opinion though

[simplykristi]

When is the next recon flight? it seems that Hurricane Dean has been at 150 MPH and 930 mb for the last 15 hours.

Kristi

[jhamps10]

When is the next recon flight? it seems that Hurricane Dean has been at 150 MPH and 930 mb for the last 15 hours.

Kristi

This evening I believe....

[WxGuy1]

I don't like this statement from the 5pm discussion.

THERE COULD BE VERY UNCERTAIN DAYS AHEAD SINCE THE GFDL HAS HAD A VERY
RELIABLE TRACK RECORD.

THEN WHY SHIFT THE DAMN TRACK SOUTH?!?!?! This is so annoying. It is giving EVERYBODY on the middle and upper Texas coast, includng my parents, a VERY false sense of security!

Because it's just ONE model out of many. It's correct in saying that computer models are not always accurate, but, for all we know, Dean could just as easily dive southwestward in the Bay of Campeche and hit between Veracruz and Tampico (where the NOGAPS and UKMET models show landfall). The NHC must take the track that appears most probably at this time, and right now, that seems to be a hit on northeastern Mexico. Now, it's worth noticing that much of the southern TX gulf coast area is in the cone, so I'd urge anyone south of Galveston to keep a very close eye on Dean.

FWIW, the CONU model consensus shows a landfall just north of Tampico. I only mention that because the CONU, GUNA, and FSU Super ensemble often have the best verification statistics. See http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/%7Evig ... _late1.png for a model spaghetti plot.

People said a couple of days ago "wait for the new 00z runs with the synoptic recon dropsonde data, then we can have more confidence". Indeed, since that time, a Mexico landfall has been forecast by nearly all forecast models. I'd say there's a 85% change of landfall south of Corpus Christi, and a 60% chance of landfall south of Brownsville. My "hunch" / forecast is a landfall south of Brownsville TX, and north of Tampico, MX.

[RL3AO]

Tell your parents to look at the cone, not the line.

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah, Erin's remnants don't seem to be in a big hurry. If they are still hovering around north TX tomorrow, then they might end up having more of an affect than first thought.

[NCSUwpack]

just put out the 5 p.m. update... very strongly worded to convey the danger as Jamaica will likely be leveled unless there is a change in track (and north means Haiti will be leveled)

God this scares me. I felt better after talking with my sister but now this has just crushed me and making me cry again.

[HurricaneRobert]

GFDL is not picking up the upper low across the Gulf very well, but the other models are, and are bringing it further south. GFDL is slowly coming to consensus with those, so a complete miss of Texas seems more likely.

[KBBOCA]

Jamaica has issued mandatory evacuation orders for coastal areas, per a storm
correspondent at Storm Carib:
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/jamaica.shtml
----------

This will be a very short blog as I have to rush my
preparation to completion.Below is the latest bullet
from the metoffice.

The prime minister has issued mandatory evacuation
order .Persons along coastal areas particularly the
South Coast will be urged to evacuate to shelters this
will begin this afternoon.
BULLETIN No. 9

*** HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA ***
A HURRICANE WARNING remains in effect for Jamaica as
dangerous Hurricane Dean continues on a path towards
the island. This means that the following dangerous
effects of a hurricane are expected to affect Jamaica
in 24 hours or less:

Dangerously high water and/or exceptionally high
waves, even though winds expected may be less than
hurricane force; or

Average winds of 118 km/h (64 knots or 75 mph) or
higher.


At 1:00 p.m. the centre of Hurricane Dean was located
near Latitude 15.9 degrees North, Longitude 69.4
degrees West. This is about 285 km (175 miles) south
of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, or 730 km
(460miles) east-southeast of Morant Point, Jamaica.

Dean is moving towards the west-northwest near 28 km/h
(17 mph) and a general west to west-northwestward
motion is expected to continue during the next 24
hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 240 km/h (150
mph), with higher gusts, and fluctuations in strength
are forecast during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force
winds extend outward approximately 95 km (60 miles),
while tropical storm force winds extend as far as 335
km (205 miles) from the centre.

On the current forecast track, Hurricane Dean is
expected to continue moving south of Hispaniola today
and early Sunday before tracking across Jamaica on
Sunday afternoon. Outer bands of the hurricane could,
however, start affecting the island by late tonight
with increasing cloudiness, showers and gusty winds.

As the centre of Dean moves closer to the coastline,
expect heavy rainfall capable of producing severe
flash floods and landslides. Storm surge flooding of
1.5-3 metres above normal tide levels along with large
and dangerous battering waves can be expected near the
centre of Dean, especially in areas of sustained
hurricane-force winds.

All small craft operators are reminded to remain in
safe harbour until all warning messages have been
lifted and wind and sea conditions have returned to
normal.

All interests should continue to monitor subsequent
Releases from the Meteorological Service. The next
Bulletin on Hurricane Dean will be issued at 5:00 p.m.

[cycloneye]

When will the next model updates be available?

From 5:30 PM.

[HURAKAN]

A few hours ago:


Now:


Becoming better organized.

[NCSUwpack]

I posted this in the top pinned thread but thought some here might be interested as well... Also which thread should I put the future information that I recieve from my family? I don't want to get in trouble.

I got in touch with my twin sister in Jamaica and she said that they are doing all they can to get ready. She said that our father is up on a ladder pulling all the coconuts off the trees right now. I was also told that a man was going in the neighborhood offering private flights out for $1000 per person! Geez can you believe that! All I could do was offer my prayers and I hope everyone on here offers prayers to all Jamaica. She said it was a beautiful day today and didn't even seem like anything is out there coming. She'll be giving me more updates as Dean gets closer, if everyone would like me to pass on information as I recieve from them I will.

BTW I love this music on Power 106FM.

[fox13weather]

I don't like this statement from the 5pm discussion.

THERE COULD BE VERY UNCERTAIN DAYS AHEAD SINCE THE GFDL HAS HAD A VERY
RELIABLE TRACK RECORD.

THEN WHY SHIFT THE DAMN TRACK SOUTH?!?!?! This is so annoying. It is giving EVERYBODY on the middle and upper Texas coast, includng my parents, a VERY false sense of security!

Because it's just ONE model out of many. It's correct in saying that computer models are not always accurate, but, for all we know, Dean could just as easily dive southwestward in the Bay of Campeche and hit between Veracruz and Tampico (where the NOGAPS and UKMET models show landfall). The NHC must take the track that appears most probably at this time, and right now, that seems to be a hit on northeastern Mexico. Now, it's worth noticing that much of the southern TX gulf coast area is in the cone, so I'd urge anyone south of Galveston to keep a very close eye on Dean.

FWIW, the CONU model consensus shows a landfall just north of Tampico. I only mention that because the CONU, GUNA, and FSU Super ensemble often have the best verification statistics. See http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/%7Evig ... _late1.png for a model spaghetti plot.

People said a couple of days ago "wait for the new 00z runs with the synoptic recon dropsonde data, then we can have more confidence". Indeed, since that time, a Mexico landfall has been forecast by nearly all forecast models. I'd say there's a 85% change of landfall south of Corpus Christi, and a 60% chance of landfall south of Brownsville. My "hunch" / forecast is a landfall south of Brownsville TX, and north of Tampico, MX.

right on chief .... great analysis....

Reading thru the posts it seems as though many are cheering for a US mainland post just for the "excitement"!! Exciting perhaps for the many here that would NOT be in harms way .... not so fun if you live along the texas coast.