
(yes, I know XTRAP isn't actually a mdoel)
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Extremeweatherguy wrote:yeah, Erin's remnants don't seem to be in a big hurry. If they are still hovering around north TX tomorrow, then they might end up having more of an affect than first thought.
perk wrote:southerngale wrote:windstorm99 wrote:Folks the average is clearly WNW as forcasted by the national hurricane center....Dont focus on every wobble cause whats important is 5-6 hour trends which clearly has been WNW.
Nobody is focusing on every wobble, but it has been moving north of forecast points (which were then adjusted), as was pointed out to you by several people. That could make a huge difference for a lot of people... especially those in Jamaica in the short term.
southerngale i could'nt have said it better myself.
NCSUwpack wrote:I posted this in the top pinned thread but thought some here might be interested as well... Also which thread should I put the future information that I recieve from my family? I don't want to get in trouble.
I got in touch with my twin sister in Jamaica and she said that they are doing all they can to get ready. She said that our father is up on a ladder pulling all the coconuts off the trees right now. I was also told that a man was going in the neighborhood offering private flights out for $1000 per person! Geez can you believe that! All I could do was offer my prayers and I hope everyone on here offers prayers to all Jamaica. She said it was a beautiful day today and didn't even seem like anything is out there coming. She'll be giving me more updates as Dean gets closer, if everyone would like me to pass on information as I recieve from them I will.
BTW I love this music on Power 106FM.
weatherguru18 wrote:Stormcenter wrote:I don't like this statement from the 5pm discussion.
THERE COULD BE VERY UNCERTAIN DAYS AHEAD SINCE THE GFDL HAS HAD A VERY
RELIABLE TRACK RECORD.
THEN WHY SHIFT THE DAMN TRACK SOUTH?!?!?! This is so annoying. It is giving EVERYBODY on the middle and upper Texas coast, includng my parents, a VERY false sense of security!
canecaster wrote:
Regarding the debate on forecast points and how far off the NHC is, I looked at the
5 AM Saturday Forecast Point Actual Difference
12HR VT 18/1800Z 15.6N 69.6W 16.1 N 70.2W +.5 +.6
As you can see, they are off and having made several other comparisons in the past two days, NHC has been consistenly missing by this amount. Whether or not this is signficant, I'll leave to the experts. But they are missing by .5 degrees N and .6 W in a twelve hour period
weatherguru18 wrote:
THEN WHY SHIFT THE DAMN TRACK SOUTH?!?!?! This is so annoying. It is giving EVERYBODY on the middle and upper Texas coast, includng my parents, a VERY false sense of security!
KBBOCA wrote:To those north of Brownsville, one thing to keep in mind is the SIZE of this storm. As one of the mods at Storm Carib posted this afternoon, this is a 550 mile wide (top to bottom) monster at the moment. The windfield has expanded, I think someone said hurricane force winds are now in a 90 mile radius? (though I last remember seeing 70 mile radius).
Anyway, according to folks on Storm Carib, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands are just NOW getting hit with ferocious rain squalls -- worse weather now even as Dean gets farther from them!! So, those on the north side of Dean cannot get complacent. While the landfall point DOES matter, the impact area can still be huge. Just something to keep in mind. Don't focus on the landfall point. Look at the whole impact area. (Skeetobite's graphics on the Storm 2K homepage are really helpful to show the size of the windfield...)
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/1500Z 15.7N 68.6W 130 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 16.4N 71.0W 130 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 17.3N 74.3W 135 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 18.3N 77.8W 125 KT...NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA
48HR VT 20/1200Z 19.5N 81.4W 140 KT
72HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 88.5W 100 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 22/1200Z 23.0N 94.0W 110 KT
120HR VT 23/1200Z 25.4N 100.0W 50 KT...INLAND
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/2100Z 16.1N 70.2W 130 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 16.8N 72.6W 135 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 17.7N 76.0W 135 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 18.5N 79.3W 125 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 83.0W 140 KT
72HR VT 21/1800Z 21.5N 90.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 22/1800Z 23.0N 96.0W 105 KT
120HR VT 23/1800Z 24.5N 101.5W 40 KT...INLAND
NCSUwpack wrote:I got in touch with my twin sister in Jamaica and she said that they are doing all they can to get ready. She said that our father is up on a ladder pulling all the coconuts off the trees right now. I was also told that a man was going in the neighborhood offering private flights out for $1000 per person! Geez can you believe that! All I could do was offer my prayers and I hope everyone on here offers prayers to all Jamaica. She said it was a beautiful day today and didn't even seem like anything is out there coming. She'll be giving me more updates as Dean gets closer, if everyone would like me to pass on information as I recieve from them I will.
BTW I love this music on Power 106FM.
Ptarmigan wrote:KBBOCA wrote:To those north of Brownsville, one thing to keep in mind is the SIZE of this storm. As one of the mods at Storm Carib posted this afternoon, this is a 550 mile wide (top to bottom) monster at the moment. The windfield has expanded, I think someone said hurricane force winds are now in a 90 mile radius? (though I last remember seeing 70 mile radius).
Anyway, according to folks on Storm Carib, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands are just NOW getting hit with ferocious rain squalls -- worse weather now even as Dean gets farther from them!! So, those on the north side of Dean cannot get complacent. While the landfall point DOES matter, the impact area can still be huge. Just something to keep in mind. Don't focus on the landfall point. Look at the whole impact area. (Skeetobite's graphics on the Storm 2K homepage are really helpful to show the size of the windfield...)
Good point. If a hurricane hit directly, the nasty side would be to the northeast. A major hurricane hitting south of Houston would be much worse than a direct hit. The nasty side would be over Houston!
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