CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Gorky]

I think the NHC has just given up and used the XTRAP 'model' for the latest plot


(yes, I know XTRAP isn't actually a mdoel)

[RL3AO]

yeah, Erin's remnants don't seem to be in a big hurry. If they are still hovering around north TX tomorrow, then they might end up having more of an affect than first thought.

Actually Erin doesn't have remnants. Its still a depression.

[canecaster]

Folks the average is clearly WNW as forcasted by the national hurricane center....Dont focus on every wobble cause whats important is 5-6 hour trends which clearly has been WNW.

Nobody is focusing on every wobble, but it has been moving north of forecast points (which were then adjusted), as was pointed out to you by several people. That could make a huge difference for a lot of people... especially those in Jamaica in the short term.

southerngale i could'nt have said it better myself.

Regarding the debate on forecast points and how far off the NHC is, I looked at the
5 AM Saturday Forecast Point Actual Difference
12HR VT 18/1800Z 15.6N 69.6W 16.1 N 70.2W +.5 +.6

As you can see, they are off and having made several other comparisons in the past two days, NHC has been consistenly missing by this amount. Whether or not this is signficant, I'll leave to the experts. But they are missing by .5 degrees N and .6 W in a twelve hour period

[M_0331]

I apologize for reporting a NHC news alert based on Yahoo alert.

[cycloneye]

I posted this in the top pinned thread but thought some here might be interested as well... Also which thread should I put the future information that I recieve from my family? I don't want to get in trouble.

I got in touch with my twin sister in Jamaica and she said that they are doing all they can to get ready. She said that our father is up on a ladder pulling all the coconuts off the trees right now. I was also told that a man was going in the neighborhood offering private flights out for $1000 per person! Geez can you believe that! All I could do was offer my prayers and I hope everyone on here offers prayers to all Jamaica. She said it was a beautiful day today and didn't even seem like anything is out there coming. She'll be giving me more updates as Dean gets closer, if everyone would like me to pass on information as I recieve from them I will.

BTW I love this music on Power 106FM.

You can put it in the sticky thread.Good luck to your sister over there.I am praying for your sister and to all in Jamaica.Hopefully,nothing tragic occurs.

[vacanechaser]

I don't like this statement from the 5pm discussion.

THERE COULD BE VERY UNCERTAIN DAYS AHEAD SINCE THE GFDL HAS HAD A VERY
RELIABLE TRACK RECORD.

THEN WHY SHIFT THE DAMN TRACK SOUTH?!?!?! This is so annoying. It is giving EVERYBODY on the middle and upper Texas coast, includng my parents, a VERY false sense of security!

i will say this, i just updated the tracking map for mark at hurricane track.com, he was in an area where he had no internet, the forecast points are not further sout than the 11am.. most of the points out 3,4,5 days are only extended westward for the timeline.. no southward shift at all.. i had to change the old points for the current ones and there was no shift what so ever southward.. there was no shift northward either... just an extended westward motion for time out since 11am


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[JusLimin]

I have seen very little mention of storm surge. How vulnerable is Jamacia to surge and how high do you think it will be?

[KBBOCA]

To those north of Brownsville, one thing to keep in mind is the SIZE of this storm. As one of the mods at Storm Carib posted this afternoon, this is a 550 mile wide (top to bottom) monster at the moment. The windfield has expanded, I think someone said hurricane force winds are now in a 90 mile radius? (though I last remember seeing 70 mile radius).

Anyway, according to folks on Storm Carib, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands are just NOW getting hit with ferocious rain squalls -- worse weather now even as Dean gets farther from them!! So, those on the north side of Dean cannot get complacent. While the landfall point DOES matter, the impact area can still be huge. Just something to keep in mind. Don't focus on the landfall point. Look at the whole impact area. (Skeetobite's graphics on the Storm 2K homepage are really helpful to show the size of the windfield...)

[RL3AO]

Regarding the debate on forecast points and how far off the NHC is, I looked at the
5 AM Saturday Forecast Point Actual Difference
12HR VT 18/1800Z 15.6N 69.6W 16.1 N 70.2W +.5 +.6

As you can see, they are off and having made several other comparisons in the past two days, NHC has been consistenly missing by this amount. Whether or not this is signficant, I'll leave to the experts. But they are missing by .5 degrees N and .6 W in a twelve hour period

Little error there. The forecast point was for 1800, but you posted the 2100 location.

The 1800 actual location was 15.9N 69.4W or a difference of +.3 -.2

[Derek Ortt]

CNN reporting that Hatians are not taking this seriously

If this is the case... we may have thousands of Darwin awards being handed out tomorrow morning

[Ptarmigan]

THEN WHY SHIFT THE DAMN TRACK SOUTH?!?!?! This is so annoying. It is giving EVERYBODY on the middle and upper Texas coast, includng my parents, a VERY false sense of security!

I agree. That model is meaningless and should be taken with a grain of salt. This will make people more complacent and for some reason Dean shifts northward towards Texas and that would be no good.

[jhamps10]

i dont know if this has been posted or not, but take a look at this

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... hr_11.html


Espically towards the end, CLear wnw- nw movement.



if already posted, I apologize,

[Ptarmigan]

To those north of Brownsville, one thing to keep in mind is the SIZE of this storm. As one of the mods at Storm Carib posted this afternoon, this is a 550 mile wide (top to bottom) monster at the moment. The windfield has expanded, I think someone said hurricane force winds are now in a 90 mile radius? (though I last remember seeing 70 mile radius).

Anyway, according to folks on Storm Carib, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands are just NOW getting hit with ferocious rain squalls -- worse weather now even as Dean gets farther from them!! So, those on the north side of Dean cannot get complacent. While the landfall point DOES matter, the impact area can still be huge. Just something to keep in mind. Don't focus on the landfall point. Look at the whole impact area. (Skeetobite's graphics on the Storm 2K homepage are really helpful to show the size of the windfield...)

Good point. If a hurricane hit directly, the nasty side would be to the northeast. A major hurricane hitting south of Houston would be much worse than a direct hit. The nasty side would be over Houston!

[KBBOCA]

Also on Storm Carib from the Jamaica Correspondent, this section of Jeff Masters' blog which provides historical data on Cat 4 - Cat 5 hurricanes for Jamaica & the Caymans, and more radio links from Jamaica:
---------

Jamaica and the Cayman Islands

Jamaica is my greatest concern. A direct hit by Dean
would make it the worst hurricane strike on Jamaica
for over a century. Jamaica has not received a direct
hit by a Category 4 or 5 hurricane since perhaps 1832.
The worst strikes of the 20th century were Category 3
Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 and Category 2 Hurricane
Charlie of 1951. The Cayman Islands also have much to
fear from Dean. Dean could rival Ivan as the Cayman's
worst hurricane strike of the past century.

Links, You can listen live to our local radio stations
by click the links.


Nationwide Radio (Hurricane coverage and live reports
starting tonight.)


http://www.nationwidenewsnetwork.com/

Newstalk93 (Hurricane coverage starts tonight)

http://newstalk.com.jm/



Love101fm

http://www.love101.org/

Kool 97 fm

http://www.kool97fm.com/


Irie fm
http://www.iriefm.net/

Power106 FM
http://www.go-jamaica.com/power/

[vacanechaser]

forecast points for 11am..

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/1500Z 15.7N 68.6W 130 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 16.4N 71.0W 130 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 17.3N 74.3W 135 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 18.3N 77.8W 125 KT...NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA
48HR VT 20/1200Z 19.5N 81.4W 140 KT
72HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 88.5W 100 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 22/1200Z 23.0N 94.0W 110 KT
120HR VT 23/1200Z 25.4N 100.0W 50 KT...INLAND

forecast points for 5pm

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 16.1N 70.2W 130 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 16.8N 72.6W 135 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 17.7N 76.0W 135 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 18.5N 79.3W 125 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 83.0W 140 KT
72HR VT 21/1800Z 21.5N 90.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 22/1800Z 23.0N 96.0W 105 KT
120HR VT 23/1800Z 24.5N 101.5W 40 KT...INLAND

so for those saying why shift it south if they are talking about the GFDL, as you see, no south shift at all... no change from the 11am..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[artist]

I got in touch with my twin sister in Jamaica and she said that they are doing all they can to get ready. She said that our father is up on a ladder pulling all the coconuts off the trees right now. I was also told that a man was going in the neighborhood offering private flights out for $1000 per person! Geez can you believe that! All I could do was offer my prayers and I hope everyone on here offers prayers to all Jamaica. She said it was a beautiful day today and didn't even seem like anything is out there coming. She'll be giving me more updates as Dean gets closer, if everyone would like me to pass on information as I recieve from them I will.

BTW I love this music on Power 106FM.

So glad you got in touch with your family. There ius always someone else trying to profit off of possible tragedies. Makes me sick. Please do pass on the info. I love the country and people there. I also have friends that have family there. It sounds like they are trying to really get it together to help keep everyone safe they can. Sounds like they have relief supplies staged everywhere, etc. Let us know how things are going, ok? And you all are in my prayers.

[Eyewall]

To those north of Brownsville, one thing to keep in mind is the SIZE of this storm. As one of the mods at Storm Carib posted this afternoon, this is a 550 mile wide (top to bottom) monster at the moment. The windfield has expanded, I think someone said hurricane force winds are now in a 90 mile radius? (though I last remember seeing 70 mile radius).

Anyway, according to folks on Storm Carib, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands are just NOW getting hit with ferocious rain squalls -- worse weather now even as Dean gets farther from them!! So, those on the north side of Dean cannot get complacent. While the landfall point DOES matter, the impact area can still be huge. Just something to keep in mind. Don't focus on the landfall point. Look at the whole impact area. (Skeetobite's graphics on the Storm 2K homepage are really helpful to show the size of the windfield...)

Good point. If a hurricane hit directly, the nasty side would be to the northeast. A major hurricane hitting south of Houston would be much worse than a direct hit. The nasty side would be over Houston!

that would depend on how far south it hit..

[Wx_Warrior]

Just spoke with a friend in San Antonio. They are VERY concerned at this point. City is very, very wet.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Thanks to the South side of the eye hugging 16ºN, it is easy to see nearly a due West jog the last two hours, although the floater updates about 45 minutes after the fact...

[HURAKAN]