CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Ed Mahmoud]

that would depend on how far south it hit..

GFDL with hit North of BRO showed tropical storm force winds on the wide view about as far North as Galveston.

[aerojad]

Been a while since I've been here, heh. Looks like I showed up just in time.

Dean's track over Jamaica has me nervous, not so much for Kingston though they will have it pretty bad, but moreso for Montego Bay. I have gone ahead and drawn up some maps to that end but what it comes down to is if Dean keeps hugging the forecast track for the next 24 hours like it has been you are looking at serious wind damage in Kingston of course (across the entire island, actually) but in Montego Bay, you are looking at a serious storm surge as well as serious wind damage.

I still remember when I went to Jamaica in 1993 as a kid. We landed in Montego Bay and the bus driver was all proud that all the light poles that were up before Gilbert were recently restored - and that's a few years later. Jamaica is going to take a heck of a beating, it looks like.

[jasons2k]

Briefly checkin-in from the road. I'm surprised the models haven't shifted right yet based on the ULL soundings in FL. Were they not ingested in the model suite yet?

FWIW I still think the GFS is out to lunch and will eventually shift to align more with the GFDL.

I'm just sayin'.....don't be surprised when it happens.

[KBBOCA]

original post deleted.

[I've decided to delete my post about Derek's comment above. Not the time or place for this discussion. I should have pm-ed Derek instead of posting my remarks here. Sorry for the tangent.]

[wxwatcher91]

Based on latest IR, Dean has turned to the west.

Vacanechaser, the forecast did shift south, or in this case, west (overall to the left):
72HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 88.5W
72HR VT 21/1800Z 21.5N 90.0W
1.5 further W

96HR VT 22/1200Z 23.0N 94.0W
96HR VT 22/1800Z 23.0N 96.0W
2.0 further W

[canegrl04]

Since the NHC has more faith in the GFDL,I am going to accept that model's tracking of Dean

[Ptarmigan]

I read the latest advisories and Dean now has TS force wind extending up to 230 miles and Hurricane force winds extending up to 70 miles. Dean is quite a large hurricane. I would not be surprised if Dean gets larger than Katrina.

[jhamps10]

Based on latest IR, Dean has turned to the west.

Vacanechaser, the forecast did shift south, or in this case, west (overall to the left):
72HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 88.5W
72HR VT 21/1800Z 21.5N 90.0W
1.5 further W

96HR VT 22/1200Z 23.0N 94.0W
96HR VT 22/1800Z 23.0N 96.0W
2.0 further W

actually the very last image on IR2 floater has a new wobble NW. Will see what happens though.

[RL3AO]

Based on latest IR, Dean has turned to the west.

Vacanechaser, the forecast did shift south, or in this case, west (overall to the left):
72HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 88.5W
72HR VT 21/1800Z 21.5N 90.0W
1.5 further W

96HR VT 22/1200Z 23.0N 94.0W
96HR VT 22/1800Z 23.0N 96.0W
2.0 further W

They aren't the same times. That is the main reason why the track shifted. Since they don't have a 66 hour forecast, you can't make the comparison.

[dwg71]

Since the NHC has more faith in the GFDL,I am going to accept that model's tracking of Dean

As much faith as one can have in a model. They are all imperfect. GFDL has been like Ebby Calvin 'Nuke' LaLoosh....kind of all over the place. Hard to put too much stock in it. Its been from Mexico to LA.

[Derek Ortt]

some cannot prepare, but some are not heading the warnings at all, and that troubles me.

Unless the CNN report was wrong... but in any event, people MUST TAKE THIS STORM SERIOUSLY

[Sanibel]

This is my own opinion and not endorsed by Storm2k


Looks straight on for Jamaica still.

[artist]

knowing Derek as I think I do, I don't think he was thinking of it that way. He has been working long hours, probably just thinking of it that were here - not that they wouldn't even know about it.

[southerngale]

vacanechaser...

I (and I believe others) were saying they changed them AT the 11am advisory, not SINCE the 11am advisory. On that, I'm certain. Shortly before the 11am advisory, I was watching the IR loop with the trop pts, and the next forecast point was at 15.3 and 69.3 - at that time, the eye was only at 68.3 and already at, or slightly past 15.3 moving wnw. When I typed that to my sister, she came back and said it was right on the trop pt. So I opened the same loop in another window, and she was right. They had moved that trop pt. to 68.3'ish and had the eye right over it, giving the appearance that it was right on track with the forecast points.
I understand they were updating them for the 11am advisory... but they were definitely north of the points then.

I don't know if it will make any difference in the long term track, but it could mean a lot to Jamaica and Haiti.

[Derek Ortt]

Dean ahs not shifted its track all day

It is only wobbling

[MGC]

The 12Z GFDL has Dean running the lenght of Jamica Mon and not losing any intensity. That won't happen......MGC

[RL3AO]

Recon is on the runway...HDOB's transmitting.

[SaveNola]

When will the next model updates be available?

I'm expecting more of the same.

[vacanechaser]

Based on latest IR, Dean has turned to the west.

Vacanechaser, the forecast did shift south, or in this case, west (overall to the left):
72HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 88.5W
72HR VT 21/1800Z 21.5N 90.0W
1.5 further W

96HR VT 22/1200Z 23.0N 94.0W
96HR VT 22/1800Z 23.0N 96.0W
2.0 further W

correct... however there is no shift southward... the track did not cross the coast further south that before.. he did not change the lat. points... only extended them westward for time past from the 11am to now... so that does not conunt as a southward shift... people were saying how they did not understand how the nhc made the statement about the gfdl and took the storm further south.. just pointing out that it is not further south... no change just an extension..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

edit:
here is the post i am referring to.. not people, i guess one person was saying a shift south

THEN WHY SHIFT THE DAMN TRACK SOUTH?!?!?! This is so annoying. It is giving EVERYBODY on the middle and upper Texas coast, includng my parents, a VERY false sense of security!

[jlauderdal]

Just spoke with a friend in San Antonio. They are VERY concerned at this point. City is very, very wet.

115 kt is of more concern than rain if you take dean. Anyone see those good images from UW today?