CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[tolakram]

The low over Florida is now moving rapidly west and the high east of it builds in. Isn't that exactly what is needed to keep this storm on a westward track? I guess the only other question, IF I understand this correctly, is how far the Florida low moves and if depression Erin will get out of the way or hold it up.

Right?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Does anyone have that pretty little spaghetti map that shows all the models and ensembles together? Like with 20 paths..that's the one I want to see.

[HURAKAN]

LATEST:

[Stratosphere747]

Texas should be looking for benchmarks if we are to be threatened. N of Jamaica and thru the Yucatan Channel. A hit on the YP and this is most likely a 2nd LF in Mexico.

[Extremeweatherguy]

humm what happened to the a stronger storm goes poleward theroy?

Not complaining bout the models, but come on we have a near cat 5 on our hands, and the GFS wants to take it due west?! Sorry I'm claiming BS as well.

yeah, especially with the GFS showing the edge of the high only reaching the TX/LA border with a SE to NW flow across Texas from the GOM. IMO, that would lead to a more WNW or NW turn after it crossed the Yucatan. The model isn't showing that yet, but I think it might switch to a scenario like that soon. I just do not see Dean continuing west instead of moving up around the outer edge of the high.

500mb flow at 96 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096l.gif
300mb flow at 96 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096l.gif

[Stratosphere747]

It's because the High builds westward, blocking any turn to the N. Simple and logical. For now that is what the NHC believes and they have stuck to this for a few days now.

[Normandy]

The low over Florida is now moving rapidly west and the high east of it builds in. Isn't that exactly what is needed to keep this storm on a westward track? I guess the only other question, IF I understand this correctly, is how far the Florida low moves and if depression Erin will get out of the way or hold it up.

Right?

Tolkram,
Look at EWG's post a couple posts back....
When Dean is approaching the coast, a weakness is present over Texas and the GFS shoots Dean WSW as if a building ridge is present over the top of Dean (In that run the ridge is centered over N AL and extends just past the TX/LA border). If Dean were a weak TD then yes, this could happen.....but best believe a Cat5 will take that weakness (Look at what Dean has done today with the weakness (and this weakness isn't as strong as the one depicted in the GFS model run over Texas). A wsw motion is very unlikely imo.

[Mathias]

Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't true, that in certain cases, that powerful hurricanes can facilitate the strengthening of a high pressure to it's north, pumping up the pressure, or having a physical influence i.e. dragging the high pressure atmosphere to it's north along with it? This is an amateur's question, who has had no experience in studying atmospheric thermodynamics.

[cycloneye]

As the other threads that we have for other areas this thread is for those in the above threatened area and our ProMets.Our friends over there have outr prayers.Any links to radio statios or webcams can be posted.

Cualquier mensaje que tengas sobre como se estan preparando en la Penninsula lo puedes poner aqui.Estamos con ustedes y rezamos que nada malo ocurra.Si tienen links de estaciones de radio o camaras fijas en puntos estrategicos son bienvenidos a postearlos.

[Normandy]

LOL I love it.
Dean's eye is jogging SW....gotta love those trochoidal wobbles....someone should save this loop of Dean to show an example of these if a question arises regarding the nature of troichoidal wobbles in the future.

[RL3AO]

765
URNT15 KNHC 182238
AF302 0704A DEAN HDOB 08 20070818
222830 1804N 06659W 5058 05728 0226 -060 -070 087038 039 999 999 03
222900 1804N 06702W 5059 05726 0219 -059 -068 089037 038 999 999 03
222930 1804N 06705W 5055 05639 0150 -060 -061 089038 039 999 999 03
223000 1804N 06707W 5059 05656 0191 -061 -064 087037 038 999 999 03
223030 1804N 06710W 5060 05762 0284 -058 -058 094036 037 999 999 03
223100 1804N 06713W 5055 05794 0301 -058 -064 086040 040 049 000 03
223130 1804N 06716W 5061 05790 0308 -060 -062 084038 039 036 002 00
223200 1805N 06718W 5058 05796 0310 -060 -061 088033 036 037 004 00
223230 1805N 06721W 5060 05793 0309 -060 -064 089028 029 036 003 00
223300 1805N 06723W 5056 05799 0310 -060 -063 095029 030 035 002 00
223330 1805N 06726W 5059 05794 0309 -060 -066 098029 030 036 002 00
223400 1805N 06729W 5057 05796 0310 -060 -067 098030 030 037 002 00
223430 1805N 06731W 5058 05798 0310 -061 -069 099029 029 038 002 00
223500 1805N 06734W 5058 05801 0309 -060 -070 101032 033 039 002 00
223530 1805N 06737W 5059 05796 0310 -055 -074 099033 033 039 002 00
223600 1805N 06739W 5059 05801 0311 -055 -081 099033 034 038 002 00
223630 1805N 06742W 5060 05798 0311 -055 -080 096033 034 037 000 00
223700 1805N 06742W 5060 05798 0311 -057 -072 097032 033 039 000 00
223730 1805N 06747W 5059 05796 0312 -056 -072 089031 031 036 001 00
223800 1805N 06750W 5057 05800 0312 -060 -070 089031 032 050 000 03
$$


Over western PR.

[KBBOCA]

Here's a link to the spaghetti map:
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_04.gif

Some of those are 12Z runs...

[tallywx]

Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't true, that in certain cases, that powerful hurricanes can facilitate the strengthening of a high pressure to it's north, pumping up the pressure, or having a physical influence i.e. dragging the high pressure atmosphere to it's north along with it? This is an amateur's question, who has had no experience in studying atmospheric thermodynamics.

This is interesting because I recall from past years when a hurricane was moving westward toward FL but predicted to be picked up by a trough, a lot of PIMBYs ("Please In My Back Yard") would say that a stronger hurricane could pump the ridge north of it and move westward for longer than it otherwise would.

So pro mets: which theory is correct? That a more powerful hurricane will move more poleward, or more westward because of its positive influence on a ridge?

[jhamps10]

humm what happened to the a stronger storm goes poleward theroy?

Not complaining bout the models, but come on we have a near cat 5 on our hands, and the GFS wants to take it due west?! Sorry I'm claiming BS as well.

yeah, especially with the GFS showing the edge of the high only reaching the TX/LA border with a SE to NW flow across Texas from the GOM. IMO, that would lead to a more WNW or NW turn after it crossed the Yucatan. The model isn't showing that yet, but I think it might switch to a scenario like that soon. I just do not see Dean continuing west instead of moving up around the outer edge of the high.

500mb flow at 96 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096l.gif
300mb flow at 96 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096l.gif

I don't even see a Yucatan crosssing that far south.

[x-y-no]

humm what happened to the a stronger storm goes poleward theroy?

Not complaining bout the models, but come on we have a near cat 5 on our hands, and the GFS wants to take it due west?! Sorry I'm claiming BS as well.

Given a strong enough ridge, even the strongest storms can go due west or even south of west.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I've noticed now that it is becoming obvious that a US landfall is rather unlikely (yes, I know, anything is possible) and that NHC track has been consistent and correct now for a couple of days, and even Joe Bastardi doesn't have an argument, the number of people posting here is starting to trail off.


I suppose traffic will go back up the day it hits Tampico or La Pesca.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I've noticed now that it is becoming obvious that a US landfall is rather unlikely (yes, I know, anything is possible) and that NHC track has been consistent and correct now for a couple of days, and even Joe Bastardi doesn't have an argument, the number of people posting here is starting to trail off.


I suppose traffic will go back up the day it hits Tampico or La Pesca.

JB doesn't have an arguement? I have been reading his posts all day and yesterday too. He is calling for a south Texas hit..which is part of the United States.

[RL3AO]

751
URNT15 KNHC 182248
AF302 0704A DEAN HDOB 09 20070818
223830 1805N 06752W 5059 05750 0276 -060 -063 087033 034 999 999 03
223900 1805N 06755W 5058 05725 0274 -060 -061 097037 038 999 999 03
223930 1805N 06758W 5058 05802 0307 -059 -064 101040 041 999 999 03
224000 1805N 06801W 5060 05793 0310 -055 -066 105043 044 999 999 03
224030 1805N 06803W 5059 05799 0310 -058 -061 108043 045 999 999 03
224100 1805N 06806W 5059 05794 0311 -058 -059 108045 046 999 999 03
224130 1805N 06809W 5058 05804 0311 -056 -057 105040 041 999 999 03
224200 1805N 06811W 5057 05795 0310 -055 -056 104040 041 999 999 03
224230 1805N 06814W 5059 05796 0310 -055 -055 111042 043 999 999 03
224300 1805N 06817W 5059 05798 0311 -055 -055 113043 045 999 999 03
224330 1805N 06820W 5058 05798 0310 -055 -055 113045 046 999 999 03
224400 1805N 06822W 5059 05798 0310 -055 -061 110042 043 999 999 03
224430 1805N 06825W 5057 05797 0308 -058 -061 111043 043 999 999 03
224500 1805N 06828W 5061 05786 0308 -060 -060 110041 042 999 999 03
224530 1805N 06830W 5058 05794 0307 -060 -065 112042 043 037 002 03
224600 1805N 06833W 5058 05797 0305 -057 -068 111046 047 052 003 00
224630 1806N 06836W 5061 05789 0303 -056 -064 111047 048 058 001 00
224700 1806N 06839W 5059 05783 0302 -055 -056 115046 047 046 000 00
224730 1806N 06841W 5059 05791 0302 -056 -056 117046 047 048 000 00
224800 1806N 06844W 5058 05789 0302 -058 -058 116049 050 046 000 00
$$

[whereverwx]

This will probably be the last visible until tomorrow morning.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't true, that in certain cases, that powerful hurricanes can facilitate the strengthening of a high pressure to it's north, pumping up the pressure, or having a physical influence i.e. dragging the high pressure atmosphere to it's north along with it? This is an amateur's question, who has had no experience in studying atmospheric thermodynamics.

This is interesting because I recall from past years when a hurricane was moving westward toward FL but predicted to be picked up by a trough, a lot of PIMBYs ("Please In My Back Yard") would say that a stronger hurricane could pump the ridge north of it and move westward for longer than it otherwise would.

So pro mets: which theory is correct? That a more powerful hurricane will move more poleward, or more westward because of its positive influence on a ridge?

I like a little excitement myself, as far as being a 'PIMBY'. If it hadn't already rained so much, I might almost be hoping for a tropical storm to pass near. But with all the rain, even Erin caused big problems, and T.S. Allison came w/i about an inch of ruining the carpets, and I spenta couple of days ripping up ruined carpet (no fun) at relatiives.


No 'PIMBY' for a Cat 4, that is for sure.