CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[KWT]

Yeah Normandy is right it doe shave mesovotices, not as good as Isabel but it is there now.

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB's disagreements with NHC have been small things, but he agrees with general track. JB also says if Dean hits Cozumel or Southward, it will miss Texas. His final target, which hasn't been updated, is pretty close for a 5 day forecast.

To quote JB from last night

FRIDAY 10 PM

BRAVO TPC, BRAVO.

I have been taking "ties" with tpc and though there may be some disagreement on this storm bending its track around Jamaica ( so far its moving straight west) there can be no disagreement on the excellence on the forecast on this storm so far. So I have good reason for not taking "bold stands" for there is no reason to as of yet. Check this out and be amazed. Since the track was adjusted south, I dont think the errors on 48 hours are over 30 miles. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/gr ... p_5W.shtml

He is close to the NHC track, but none the less he is still calling for a South Texas landfall. But yes, he did say if it is north of Cancun it will likely go to Texas and if it is south it will likely go to the Mexico. I guess that is what we should watch for closely.

[Normandy]

Isabel's were more pronounced because her eye was about 300% larger than Deans.....but Dean has some VERY evident mesovortices....


Got it off Easternwxus.


Bet the FARM this is a cat 5 right now.

[CrazyC83]

915
URNT15 KNHC 182308
AF302 0704A DEAN HDOB 11 20070818
225830 1804N 06940W 5061 05778 0292 -059 -075 110050 050 043 000 00
225900 1802N 06942W 5058 05780 0291 -055 -084 115050 051 043 000 00
225930 1800N 06944W 5157 05630 0282 -059 -102 110053 053 045 000 00
230000 1759N 06946W 5337 05347 0264 -042 -089 107053 053 045 000 00
230030 1757N 06948W 5514 05093 0101 -027 -058 106053 054 043 001 00
230100 1756N 06950W 5703 04818 0103 -014 -014 105054 055 041 001 00
230130 1754N 06951W 5926 04496 0094 +004 -010 106056 057 043 001 00
230200 1752N 06953W 6149 04222 0125 +018 -016 106055 056 043 002 00
230230 1751N 06955W 6373 03928 0119 +037 +000 108058 061 043 001 00
230300 1749N 06957W 6610 03629 0115 +056 +008 114064 066 045 001 00
230330 1748N 06958W 6853 03324 0107 +075 +021 112065 065 050 000 03
230400 1746N 07000W 6969 03186 0103 +081 +052 113066 066 045 001 00
230430 1745N 07002W 6966 03184 0105 +075 +059 111065 065 044 001 00
230500 1744N 07003W 6964 03181 0097 +078 +063 114065 067 044 001 00
230530 1742N 07004W 6967 03176 9990 +078 +999 114057 059 045 000 01
230600 1741N 07006W 6971 03170 9990 +078 +999 118059 061 044 002 01
230630 1740N 07007W 6977 03164 9990 +069 +999 117060 062 045 007 01
230700 1738N 07008W 6972 03166 9990 +076 +999 118069 070 046 005 01
230730 1737N 07009W 6959 03182 9990 +076 +999 116069 069 047 005 01
230800 1735N 07010W 6964 03171 9990 +071 +999 115068 068 048 004 01
$$

Now at operational altitude.

[ConvergenceZone]

one thing, with this storm PROBABLY going into Mexico, the interest to post as much will probably die down and we don't have to worry about server issues, hehe...I'm just basing that off of the forum behavior/traffic on previous storms that went into Mexico.....

[RL3AO]

915
URNT15 KNHC 182308
AF302 0704A DEAN HDOB 11 20070818
225830 1804N 06940W 5061 05778 0292 -059 -075 110050 050 043 000 00
225900 1802N 06942W 5058 05780 0291 -055 -084 115050 051 043 000 00
225930 1800N 06944W 5157 05630 0282 -059 -102 110053 053 045 000 00
230000 1759N 06946W 5337 05347 0264 -042 -089 107053 053 045 000 00
230030 1757N 06948W 5514 05093 0101 -027 -058 106053 054 043 001 00
230100 1756N 06950W 5703 04818 0103 -014 -014 105054 055 041 001 00
230130 1754N 06951W 5926 04496 0094 +004 -010 106056 057 043 001 00
230200 1752N 06953W 6149 04222 0125 +018 -016 106055 056 043 002 00
230230 1751N 06955W 6373 03928 0119 +037 +000 108058 061 043 001 00
230300 1749N 06957W 6610 03629 0115 +056 +008 114064 066 045 001 00
230330 1748N 06958W 6853 03324 0107 +075 +021 112065 065 050 000 03
230400 1746N 07000W 6969 03186 0103 +081 +052 113066 066 045 001 00
230430 1745N 07002W 6966 03184 0105 +075 +059 111065 065 044 001 00
230500 1744N 07003W 6964 03181 0097 +078 +063 114065 067 044 001 00
230530 1742N 07004W 6967 03176 9990 +078 +999 114057 059 045 000 01
230600 1741N 07006W 6971 03170 9990 +078 +999 118059 061 044 002 01
230630 1740N 07007W 6977 03164 9990 +069 +999 117060 062 045 007 01
230700 1738N 07008W 6972 03166 9990 +076 +999 118069 070 046 005 01
230730 1737N 07009W 6959 03182 9990 +076 +999 116069 069 047 005 01
230800 1735N 07010W 6964 03171 9990 +071 +999 115068 068 048 004 01
$$

[temujin]

WOAH!!!
Somebody save the last visible shot of Dean.....the eye has mesovortices (No joke.....take a look).

Unreal!

I thought that I'd been seen them for at least a couple hours. But I wasn't brave enough to make the claim.

[Duddy]

Isabel's were more pronounced because her eye was about 300% larger than Deans.....but Dean has some VERY evident mesovortices....


Got it off Easternwxus.


Bet the FARM this is a cat 5 right now.

mesovortices are the areas of low level clouds spinning around each other inside the eye, is that right?

[CrazyC83]

CNN reporting that Hatians are not taking this seriously

If this is the case... we may have thousands of Darwin awards being handed out tomorrow morning

That is a disaster waiting to happen. Haiti has a long and tragic hurricane history of weak storms and near-misses causing catastrophic loss of life.

[HURAKAN]

Last visible:

[Typhoon_Willie]

If there is nothing to pick up even a cat 5 storm and only a strong high pressure ridge to its north then it will head westward bound...

[KBBOCA]

Thanks for posting the pic. Couldn't find a high-res image. Thought I could spot them on the NOAA floater loop when zoomed in, but it was very fuzzy...

[Normandy]

Isabel's were more pronounced because her eye was about 300% larger than Deans.....but Dean has some VERY evident mesovortices....


Got it off Easternwxus.


Bet the FARM this is a cat 5 right now.

mesovortices are the areas of low level clouds spinning around each other inside the eye, is that right?

Yes.
I can count four in the eye of Dean.

[isobar5]

Not to change the subject, but what if anything has JB said about the CMC model of a major off the coast of Florida (not Dean) on the latest run?

[tailgater]

large wobble west or south of west, im sure its nothing, but puts it south of NHC track.

Yes, each wobble like that could be a godsend for Jamaica, they will still be on the strongest side but I think it will miss them to the south.

[CrazyC83]

466
URNT15 KNHC 182318
AF302 0704A DEAN HDOB 12 20070818
230830 1734N 07011W 6966 03168 0089 +074 +060 114067 067 047 001 00
230900 1732N 07012W 6969 03163 0082 +079 +052 116067 068 046 002 00
230930 1731N 07013W 6969 03155 0080 +077 +059 115068 069 047 002 00
231000 1729N 07014W 6967 03158 0073 +080 +064 116067 068 048 001 00
231030 1728N 07015W 6967 03153 0074 +073 +073 115067 067 049 000 00
231100 1726N 07016W 6965 03152 0074 +072 +072 113069 070 050 003 00
231130 1725N 07017W 6969 03145 0065 +077 +077 111070 071 050 002 00
231200 1723N 07018W 6965 03148 0061 +077 +077 111073 075 051 003 00
231230 1722N 07019W 6967 03146 0064 +074 +074 114081 082 050 004 00
231300 1720N 07020W 6968 03140 0061 +075 +059 115087 089 050 006 00
231330 1719N 07021W 6954 03150 0056 +074 +074 109090 095 051 008 00
231400 1717N 07022W 6968 03135 0068 +056 +056 108082 084 055 049 03
231430 1716N 07023W 6954 03149 0074 +053 +053 106073 076 055 017 01
231500 1714N 07024W 6974 03116 0054 +064 +064 098070 074 053 020 01
231530 1712N 07025W 6999 03093 0054 +069 +069 103086 088 051 032 03
231600 1711N 07026W 6971 03117 0045 +072 +068 105087 089 051 006 00
231630 1709N 07027W 6964 03127 0042 +070 +070 103084 085 055 009 00
231700 1707N 07028W 6970 03112 0034 +074 +066 101080 081 054 008 00
231730 1706N 07029W 6964 03112 0024 +078 +066 100077 078 055 007 00
231800 1704N 07030W 6967 03113 0012 +085 +066 101078 078 056 007 00
$$

[RL3AO]

Not to change the subject, but what if anything has JB said about the CMC model of a major off the coast of Florida (not Dean) on the latest run?

Thats the CMC we know and love.

[jaxfladude]

This will probably be the last visible until tomorrow morning.

Goodnight Dean as it relates to the visible Sat. Please break the records books for raid weakening overnight and just end up as a cluster of tropical showers when the next daytime Sat pics come along in the am....

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not to change the subject, but what if anything has JB said about the CMC model of a major of the coast of Florida (not Dean) on the latest run?

I don't want to cut & paste too much copywrited material, but JB says there is some possibility.

HPC long range discussion also noted that while Canadian model is extreme outlier, conditions for cyclone formation where predicted by Canadian is favorable.

[Hurricane Cheese]

Dean's track right now is very reminiscent of Hurricane Emily's in 2005. But Emily's CDO past well south of Jamaica, well Emily's final landing took her to the far north Mexican coast.

I, again, must stress that this would be a VERY unusual track for Dean to move that far west for such a long duration. It would be similar to Gilbert's track in a lot of ways.

I dunno, I just don't think the US is out of the woods yet.


Maybe it's the climatologist in me...???