New storm on the horizon??

[Scorpion]

Wow that CMC run is very interesting

[HurricaneRobert]

I think that Bahama buster is just a glitch in CMC's model.

[Zardoz]

See viewtopic.php?f=31&t=97069

Like he said, there's already a thread on this. This is the third that's been started so far.

[AL Chili Pepper]

When I saw that system that the Canadian had moving toward SE FL, I was mostly concentrated on Dean and blew it off as another phantom, which the CMC is good at. It does seem to have some support this time from the other models though. It looks like a wave splits east of the Bahamas, with the western half being caught under the ridge now guiding Dean. Most of the time when the globals agree like that, something does show up. Whether it's an open wave or a closed system is another thing. It's something to keep an eye on.

[fci]

The only model I see with a storm heading towards Florida is the CMC.

Please correct me if I am wrong but this is the ONLY model I see with this happening.

[Blown Away]

Is there a wave in the Atlantic that would become this low? If so approximately what latitude/longitude?

[tailgater]

See viewtopic.php?f=31&t=97069

Like he said, there's already a thread on this. This is the third that's been started so far.

If this is the same system as that thread is refering to, it's gonna have to book it across the Atlantic

[storms in NC]

One good thing the east coast is safer than any one else at this time. Till the fronts stop moving in we are some what safe. IMHO

[windstorm99]

One good thing the east coast is safer than any one else at this time. Till the fronts stop moving in we are some what safe. IMHO

Actually the fronts have been less frequent over the past couple of weeks and i do think the eastcoast is significant risk this hurricane season.

[canegrl04]

looks like the ukmet is picking up on it already -

Its says Storm 4.I think this is the Dean map

[digitaldahling]

looks like the ukmet is picking up on it already -

Its says Storm 4.I think this is the Dean map

Since that shows a definite curve to the north, aimed directly at the central gulf coast, would you please explain what this map is and the timing of it? Thanks.

[hcane27]

Th track labeled CLIP is the Cliper (Climatology and Persistence) in other words it is nothing but the compilation of the average movement of the storms that have passed within a given distance of the location of Dean within roughly the same time period of the season .. it is NOT a "model"

[windstorm99]

not sure why dean models are being posted in this thread....

[HurricaneRobert]

That wave behind Dean doesn't look so good. We don't need a Felix monster right now. Dean is bad enough.

[O Town]

not sure why dean models are being posted in this thread....

Yes, those are models for Dean, this thread is for what is behind Dean.
Here is a recent picture, looks like convection has died off some.

[fci]

CMC tonight is still the only one that spins up a system for Florida 5 days from now from the Bahamas.

This run it is a little further south than the last.

[jlauderdal]

CMC tonight is still the only one that spins up a system for Florida 5 days from now from the Bahamas.

This run it is a little further south than the last.

good work. one model doesn't make a dean, sofla is fine for now, its shaky though with that ridge in place, it took care of us this time but troughs are better than big ridges for sofla.

[jhamps10]

Convection is coming back now. I say this needs an invest by monday. I'm afraid we could have a 1-2 punch with Dean and Felix.

[jhamps10]

the only thing I see is the wave/Low that is talked about in the other thread. I don't see anything that would get to Florida that fast.

[Vortex]

00z 8/19 GFS shows closed low at H-132 in SW bahamas now as well. A wekaer version than the CMC but nevertheless it does indicate a closed low.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_132l.gif