CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[CrazyC83]

I think, for the moment at least (with the ERC ending), Dean is a Cat 3 that is waiting for the moment to charge up...

[mgpetre]

I don't think it would be smart at all for anyone to let their guard down. Remember Erin was predicted by NHC and GFS to head Brownsville and south most of the time... the actual landfall ended up North of Corpus... We know this is probably significant, does the model think much about it? Just something I think we should remember as this unfolds.

[vacanechaser]

Windstorm99, please refrain from posting those animated GIF images here inline. Please post a link instead. The one you just posted is 2.9 MB!!! That really slows down page reloading and viewing and is really brutal for people without superfast connections who want information. Thanks!

he posted a weathertap image... that is a pay site and unless you pay for the site, you cant use the link... he has the right to post those here... there is nothing wrong with the posts windstorm, unless a mod says so... i love the images... keep it up


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[southerngale]

I was in Jamaica last year... a lot of really nice people there. I don't see how the places I saw on and near the coast will survive Dean. My prayers go out to the people in Jamaica, and everyone in the path.

[HURAKAN]

Can you please link me to the Google Earth addon that allows you to get the HH data please?

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/sta ... RNT15.KNHC

I get the data from this website.

[Weather Watcher]

Isabel's were more pronounced because her eye was about 300% larger than Deans.....but Dean has some VERY evident mesovortices....


Got it off Easternwxus.


Bet the FARM this is a cat 5 right now.

Im learning about hurricanes so could you please show me the mesovortices on dean or can you explain what those are and how to see it?

Thanks Steve

[Yankeegirl]

Galveston just canceled their press confrence that was supposed to be at 11 am tomorrow in reguards to the evac. of the island... they are going with the forecast that puts dean near brownsville...

[rainman31]

Sounds like we can relax a little here in Houston, the media is freaking people out.

[CrazyC83]

234
URNT15 KNHC 190018
AF302 0704A DEAN HDOB 18 20070819
000830 1448N 07207W 6968 03143 0030 +098 +090 321038 040 041 002 00
000900 1447N 07209W 6966 03148 0032 +098 +088 321034 035 039 002 00
000930 1446N 07210W 6965 03147 0039 +094 +090 322033 034 039 001 00
001000 1444N 07211W 6967 03149 0040 +094 +090 322032 032 039 000 00
001030 1443N 07213W 6968 03146 0040 +094 +090 320031 032 038 000 03
001100 1442N 07213W 6959 03165 0044 +095 +093 315030 031 999 999 03
001130 1440N 07212W 6968 03152 0046 +095 +092 310031 031 999 999 03
001200 1440N 07210W 6976 03140 0037 +098 +088 305030 030 037 000 03
001230 1441N 07208W 6965 03148 0032 +100 +085 301029 030 036 000 03
001300 1441N 07206W 6965 03148 0035 +100 +083 302030 030 037 000 00
001330 1441N 07204W 6965 03150 0034 +097 +081 302031 032 037 000 00
001400 1441N 07202W 6968 03143 0035 +097 +073 301032 033 037 000 00
001430 1441N 07200W 6965 03148 0038 +095 +070 303036 037 038 000 00
001500 1441N 07158W 6969 03142 0037 +095 +073 302038 039 039 001 00
001530 1441N 07156W 6967 03144 0038 +095 +070 298034 036 039 001 00
001600 1441N 07154W 6967 03139 0037 +094 +071 295033 035 040 001 00
001630 1441N 07152W 6965 03144 0038 +092 +075 293032 035 040 002 00
001700 1441N 07149W 6964 03145 0043 +087 +081 290031 032 040 002 00
001730 1442N 07147W 6968 03140 0047 +084 +083 289032 032 041 003 00
001800 1442N 07145W 6968 03139 0053 +079 +079 289031 032 041 004 00
$$

[HenkL]

GE file for this flight: http://wxgr.nl/tmppic/WXRecon.kml.

[cheezyWXguy]

I think, for the moment at least (with the ERC ending), Dean is a Cat 3 that is waiting for the moment to charge up...

2 things wrong: 1, as of the 8pm advisory, Dean is at 150mph, 920mb. The pressure is WAYYY too low for a category three, unless it expects to beat out wilma as a category 4 hurricane. 2, the ERC has barely begun. The concentric eyewalls have become more defined, and in about 8-12 hours the inner eye should collapse.

[shelby]

It is interesting that the ULL in FL is not moving as quickly. Also - what happens if Dean shoots the gap?

[Normandy]

Isabel's were more pronounced because her eye was about 300% larger than Deans.....but Dean has some VERY evident mesovortices....


Got it off Easternwxus.


Bet the FARM this is a cat 5 right now.

Im learning about hurricanes so could you please show me the mesovortices on dean or can you explain what those are and how to see it?

Thanks Steve

Look at the eye and notice the 4 "dark spots"....those are the mesovortices that rotate around the center of the eye.

[CrazyC83]

I think, for the moment at least (with the ERC ending), Dean is a Cat 3 that is waiting for the moment to charge up...

2 things wrong: 1, as of the 8pm advisory, Dean is at 150mph, 920mb. The pressure is WAYYY too low for a category three, unless it expects to beat out wilma as a category 4 hurricane. 2, the ERC has barely begun. The concentric eyewalls have become more defined, and in about 8-12 hours the inner eye should collapse.

The 150 was based on old information and is not supported by the latest flight or the structure. The shape and wind field is just like Katrina and that means a pressure much lower than the wind calls for.

I estimate it at 125 mph at the moment.

[Weather Watcher]

Isabel Mesovortices (for those who want to compare to Dean)

I see the mesovortices!!! I should have read further.

Steve

[vacanechaser]

I think, for the moment at least (with the ERC ending), Dean is a Cat 3 that is waiting for the moment to charge up...

2 things wrong: 1, as of the 8pm advisory, Dean is at 150mph, 920mb. The pressure is WAYYY too low for a category three, unless it expects to beat out wilma as a category 4 hurricane. 2, the ERC has barely begun. The concentric eyewalls have become more defined, and in about 8-12 hours the inner eye should collapse.

yep, no cat 3 with that pressure... lol... if they dont find stronger winds, i would guess they might leave the winds at 150mph..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[MusicCityMan]

Is Jamaica an hour behind us? I just heard Power 106 say that it's only 7:20pm..

[RL3AO]

I think, for the moment at least (with the ERC ending), Dean is a Cat 3 that is waiting for the moment to charge up...

2 things wrong: 1, as of the 8pm advisory, Dean is at 150mph, 920mb. The pressure is WAYYY too low for a category three, unless it expects to beat out wilma as a category 4 hurricane. 2, the ERC has barely begun. The concentric eyewalls have become more defined, and in about 8-12 hours the inner eye should collapse.

Thank you. I've been seeing people say that the ERC was over and I was asking when did that happen.

[mgpetre]

Sounds like we can relax a little here in Houston, the media is freaking people out.

Yes, but maps with Houston removed from the cone may make people a little complacent too. Still a lot of room for change...

[hiflyer]

ATCSCC ADVZY 067 DCC 08/18/2007 CARIBBEAN HURRICANE TELCON_FYI

MESSAGE:


IMPACTED AREA: HAITI, CUBA, JAMAICA, CAYMAN ISLANDS
1. HURRICANE DEAN
PUBLIC ADVISORY - HURRICANE DEAN PUBLIC ADVISORY 023
LOCATION - 455 MILES ESE OF KINGSTON, JAMAICA
ARPT CLOSURES - REFER TO INTERNATIONAL NOTAMS FOR LATEST UPDATES
- HURRICANE WARNING WESTERN HISPANIOLA, JAMAICA
- HURRICANE WATCH FOR CUBA, CAYMAN ISLANDS
- TROPICAL STORM WARNING EASTERN HISPANIOLA,
ROUTE CLOSURES - NONE AT THIS TIME. IF KINGSTON CENTER CANNOT
PROVIDE ATC SERVICES THE COMMAND CENTER WILL
ISSUE ROUTE ADVISORY AROUND KINGSTON AIRSPACE.
EASTERN CARIB - PIARCO REPORTS THAT ALL AIRPORTS HAVE REOPENED AND
ARE NORMAL OPS.
PUERTO RICO - SAN JUAN CENTER IS NORMAL OPS.
DOM REPUBLIC - NORMAL ATC OPERATIONS. REFER TO INTERNATIONAL
NOTAMS FOR AIRPORT CLOSURES.
JAMAICA - KINGSTON CENTER PLANNING TO REMAIN OPEN. AIRPORTS
BEGIN CLOSING AT 0000Z, REFER TO INTERNATIONAL
NOTAMS.
MEXICO - NORMAL OPS. INCREASE IN VOL TO MMUN/MMCZ EXPECTED.