CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Recurve]

Goodnight to Wxman -- really appreciate you being around.

Wow. SHIP goes to 143k -- 170+ sustained!


Just want to mention ...those who aren't experts....
The worst part of a hurricane, even a major, is a narrow band surrounding the eye. That giant thing you see on satellite pictures is the top of a mushroom cloud at 40,000 feet above the ocean. It's the umbrella of a storm where only the handle has the max winds.
Being 20 miles away from that can take you out of the greatest danger. A sensible evac plan is getting out 15-20 miles to a strong structure, out of eyewall winds, rather than flee 150 miles if you're 100 miles from the center (vulnerable surge zone on dangerous side is an exception). Though tornadoes do spawn in the NW quad at a good distance from the center on land.

I do not want to minimize anything about Dean. This is a terrible storm. And even tropical storms kill. Be aware of your flood potential, the strength of your structure, and your preparation for self-sufficiency (water, food, medicine, flashlights, fire extinguisher, first aid.).



When this storm nears landfall, the windfield analysis of HRD may mean a lot to those on the ground. There's a thread here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=97213 if you need to know what kind of winds are where and what the destructive potential is. This is the first objective and analysis research product that attempts to go beyond s-s scale for people on the ground at landfall.

[HURAKAN]

[CronkPSU]

Interesting I am listening to Jamaican Radio and they just mentioned the wobble/movement to the west and that models suggested it will go south of the island and thus it's somewhat good news.. Tad premature but then no need to create panic tonight..

um, just south of the island is not much better for them...and I am not sure they should be giving anyone any false hope for what tomorrow afternoon may bring

[wxman57]

I have a little hunch.....Today, and most of day, dean was moving around 295 or so. When his EWRC started he really jogged W and even WSW. I am wonding if now thats starting to wrap up I wonder if that WNW motion will really continue. Any thoughts>?

It actually has already just starting returning to its WNW motion!

You're just observing what is called trochoidal motion. It's kind of like watching a spinning top. The whole top is spinning, but the top part wobbles in little circles. That's why you can't use short-term motion to estimate which way Dean is tracking. For a 2 hour period, I measured a movement toward 241 degrees! But it wasn't moving southwest, just wobbling.

[HurricaneBill]

Power 106 reporting that some living on coastal communities in Jamaica are REFUSING TO HEED evacuation orders. I just stop and wonder a little bit.. what is with these people..?

I think somebody during Ivan said people refused to evacuate because they were afraid their homes would get looted.

[KatDaddy]

Thanks Wxman57. Get some well needed rest and I agree. This is tropical cyclone I do not want to see up close. Looks like the upper TX Coast has dodged another bullet. I will take it.

[Aquawind]

Jamaican Information Service..

http://www.jis.gov.jm/


Prime Minister, the Most Hon. Portia Simpson Miller has urged all Jamaicans to unite as the nation prepares for the passage of Hurricane Dean this weekend. She was addressing a press briefing at Jamaica House on Friday, August 17 following a meeting of the National Disaster Committee.

The Prime Minister said, "I have asked the Leader of the Opposition to name a team so a bipartisan approach can be taken and both of us have agreed to be in touch, as we rally Jamaicans to support each other."

Prime Minister Simpson Miller appealed to the nation to pay special attention to ensuring that the elderly, sick, physically challenged, children and all vulnerable members of society are taken care of.

"Everyone must take the threat very seriously and put in place all necessary safety measures," the Prime Minister stressed.

In the meantime, the state of readiness of the various disaster response agencies was assessed during the meeting of the National Disaster Committee.
The Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM) is coordinating the national response effort.

As Jamaica braces for the possible impact of Hurricane Dean, all the emergency services including the army, the Jamaica Constabulary Force, the Fire Brigade and the health facilities are on high alert.

Non-governmental agencies such as the Red Cross, Food for the Poor, the Salvation Army and the Adventist Disaster Relief Agency (ADRA) are on stand-by while Parish Disaster Committees have been activated.

The Prime Minister has instructed that all designated emergency shelters be made available. She said, "Persons responsible for shelters who have keys must be on stand-by to open them."

The Prime Minister further stated, "The National Arena should be available if the need arises as well as all schools selected as emergency shelters."

With respect to transporting evacuees to emergency shelters, the Prime Minister advised that the Jamaica Urban Transit Company would be providing 50 buses.

"All police, fire and other personnel on leave must return to work immediately and all public buildings and state records and documents must be properly secured," the Prime Minister instructed.

[mf_dolphin]

Cloud tops are definitely cooling in the last few frames so I'm sure Dean is getting ready to wind up once again. Not good news for Jamaica but not unexpected.

[CrazyC83]

851
URNT15 KNHC 190158
AF302 0704A DEAN HDOB 28 20070819
014830 1524N 07221W 6967 03114 0029 +074 +074 337052 054 047 007 00
014900 1525N 07219W 6965 03112 0020 +078 +078 338052 052 046 008 00
014930 1526N 07218W 6967 03105 0010 +082 +082 336055 059 048 007 00
015000 1527N 07217W 6963 03105 0013 +076 +076 332058 061 048 008 03
015030 1528N 07216W 6968 03100 0012 +074 +074 335054 054 049 010 03
015100 1529N 07214W 6968 03096 0016 +069 +069 333055 058 999 999 03
015130 1530N 07213W 6969 03091 0002 +075 +075 331060 063 999 999 03
015200 1531N 07212W 6963 03093 0007 +067 +067 331064 065 051 043 03
015230 1532N 07211W 6964 03084 0008 +062 +062 329063 065 051 043 03
015300 1533N 07209W 6969 03073 0006 +061 +061 328066 068 052 039 03
015330 1534N 07208W 6964 03076 0000 +060 +060 326069 071 053 020 00
015400 1535N 07207W 6962 03070 9994 +059 +059 324073 078 056 021 00
015430 1536N 07205W 6961 03069 9989 +059 +059 325077 081 056 020 01
015500 1537N 07204W 6965 03062 9973 +070 +070 329072 074 056 055 03
015530 1538N 07203W 6963 03058 9972 +067 +067 331069 070 058 016 03
015600 1539N 07202W 6958 03057 9962 +069 +069 327068 074 060 039 03
015630 1541N 07200W 6970 03039 9942 +079 +079 326065 067 062 032 03
015700 1542N 07159W 6968 03037 9941 +074 +074 329066 067 064 031 03
015730 1543N 07158W 6969 03028 9940 +068 +068 330063 065 066 017 00
015800 1544N 07157W 6959 03031 9990 +067 +999 330067 070 067 023 01
$$

Back to the middle bands...

[vacanechaser]

I have a little hunch.....Today, and most of day, dean was moving around 295 or so. When his EWRC started he really jogged W and even WSW. I am wonding if now thats starting to wrap up I wonder if that WNW motion will really continue. Any thoughts>?

It actually has already just starting returning to its WNW motion!

You're just observing what is called trochoidal motion. It's kind of like watching a spinning top. The whole top is spinning, but the top part wobbles in little circles. That's why you can't use short-term motion to estimate which way Dean is tracking. For a 2 hour period, I measured a movement toward 241 degrees! But it wasn't moving southwest, just wobbling.

yes the earth does that too.. it is called procession and thats why the north star will not always be polaris... and thats why we sometimes have ice ages..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[tolakram]

Latest Morphed Microwave Imagery:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... splay.html

[Ptarmigan]

Thanks Wxman57. Get some well needed rest and I agree. This is tropical cyclone I do not want to see up close. Looks like the upper TX Coast has dodged another bullet. I will take it.

I would like to wish that, but I don't want to let my guards down yet.

[HURAKAN]

[jimvb]

Hicksta, you said that if the storm takes a turn, it could go south quick. But you don't mention that it could take a turn north quick. That is what the people in Texas are fearing the most. If it went south, it would strike southern Mexico and Central America and not be a problem for Texas.

[O Town]

Thank you so much HURAKAN for posting graphics, I think it is helpful for all who are paying attention to recon.
I think it should be done for every recon flight.

[HURAKAN]

Thank you so much HURAKAN for posting graphics, I think it is helpful for all who are paying attention to recon.
I think it should be done for every recon flight.

My pleasure!!!

A picture is worth a thousand words, a bunch of numbers is confusing.

Everytime that I can I will do it.

[vaffie]

Hicksta, you said that if the storm takes a turn, it could go south quick. But you don't mention that it could take a turn north quick. That is what the people in Texas are fearing the most. If it went south, it would strike southern Mexico and Central America and not be a problem for Texas.

When he said "go south" he didn't mean it literally, he meant "go bad" or "downhill".

[whereverwx]

The new eyewall is becoming increasingly evident on water vapor imagery. I have circled the area that I am looking at for easy reference.

[MusicCityMan]

Beautiful storm It's a shame what its about to do to Jamaica and the Yucatan..

[tropicwatch]

I believe this recon ends around 0600z