CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[artist]

have you talked with your sister again NCS"Uwpack?

[timNms]

Question for the experts here.
Looking at this water vapor loop http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... op-12.html there appears to be a high building over the southwestern US. looks as if it's nugding into west texas. I can see the upper low moving south of MS in the loop.

Question 1: What effect, if any, will the high have on the upper low's movement toward the west...could it cause the low to stall or get cut off?

Question 2: Is Dean's current slow climb in lat. due to it feeling the pull of the upper low? On the NHC's floater it looks like a NW jog has occured in the last couple of frames. Also looks to my untrained eyes that Dean is going to miss the next plot by the NHC. It appears he will go just to the north of Jamaca if this trend continues.

Question 3: Could that thing I'm calling a high building in west TX possibly be why some of the models were turning Dean due west, then southwest near the end of the runs?

[HURAKAN]

[Aquawind]

The Texas benchmarks have been set since yesterday. N of Jamaica and then thru the Yucatan Channel. Neither of which look to happen.

Well its a tiny bit early to say he won't go north of Jamaica since he hasn't past the island yet. Will be interesting to see what the morning brings.

It's needs to start gaining some lat in hurry before I see that possibility. Will be fun to watch, especially for those that remember Ivan.

I agree with all of this. I do think it will be south at this point. We have some impressive wobbling that has taken place and that will continue but it seems the forecast it very good thus far. If it outright misses Jamaica to the north then maybe we can think the ridge is weaker but I tend to think it will be south it's just how far. The next question would be how much did the island disrupt the sytem if at all as it continues to the Cayman Islands.

[jhamps10]

30 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_030l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_030l.gif

OT of dean, but look at what's at 10N 40W in this image......

[teal61]

Upper LOw doesnt seem to move to much between 18 and 30 hours

[tropicwatch]

Sorry, brain fart. Thought I was on the decoder sight when I hit submit.

[Extremeweatherguy]

54 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_054l.gif

[Aquawind]

Upper LOw doesnt seem to move to much between 18 and 30 hours

Yeah but look at it on WV.. it's a movin..for now..


http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[wxmann_91]

Also there will be 2 daily G4 missions starting tonight. The atmosphere around and ahead of the storm will be heavily sampled.

Good info to know. I suspect there will be no change to the models though, as the atmosphere is already pretty well sampled.

Hola Senor Dean!

[dwsqos2]

Eyewall Drop...

000
UZNT13 KNHC 190343
XXAA 69037 99164 70719 04461 99955 25800 ///// 00905 ///// /////
92285 23806 02130 85023 20200 04126 70690 11800 06110 88999 77999
31313 09608 80313
61616 AF302 0704A DEAN OB 25
62626 EYEWALL 135 SPL 1630N07202W 0317 LST WND 038 MBL WND 02127
AEV 00000 DL M WND 04620 951706 WL150 01614 112 =
XXBB 69038 99164 70719 04461 00955 25800 11850 20200 22723 15002
33706 14600 44696 10000
21212 00955 ///// 11951 01600 22948 01602 33936 01630 44933 02134
55906 02630 66895 03121 77879 03624 88862 03633 99850 04126 11696
06108
31313 09608 80313
61616 AF302 0704A DEAN OB 25
62626 EYEWALL 135 SPL 1630N07202W 0317 LST WND 038 MBL WND 02127
AEV 00000 DL M WND 04620 951706 WL150 01614 112 =


955 mb; no surface winds; 925 mb winds of 130 knots; MBL winds of 127 knots.

EDIT...Nice Typo

[cycloneye]

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/SMN.html

This is the link to the Mexican Weather Service.

Este es el enlace con el Servicio de Meteorogia de Mexico.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Upper LOw doesnt seem to move to much between 18 and 30 hours

Yeah but look at it on WV.. it's a movin..for now..


http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

yes, and the GFS agrees with that movement. It starts slowing it up once it is closer to the TX coast.

[HURAKAN]

937
URNT15 KNHC 190348
AF302 0704A DEAN HDOB 39 20070819
033830 1528N 07059W 6966 03134 0080 +054 +054 194062 065 999 999 03
033900 1530N 07100W 6971 03121 0067 +058 +058 192064 066 999 999 03
033930 1532N 07101W 6965 03126 0051 +064 +064 194069 070 999 999 03
034000 1534N 07102W 6965 03121 0035 +074 +068 195066 068 056 023 00
034030 1536N 07102W 6970 03110 0028 +077 +065 197062 062 056 008 00
034100 1539N 07103W 6967 03113 0028 +075 +065 193063 064 056 009 00
034130 1541N 07103W 6965 03108 0026 +072 +067 193069 072 056 008 00
034200 1543N 07104W 6966 03106 0025 +071 +068 192073 073 057 010 00
034230 1545N 07104W 6968 03101 0021 +069 +067 191074 075 060 008 00
034300 1548N 07104W 6965 03101 0025 +064 +064 188076 076 060 007 00
034330 1550N 07104W 6967 03097 0021 +065 +065 186077 078 061 006 00
034400 1553N 07104W 6967 03094 0018 +066 +066 182078 079 061 007 00
034430 1555N 07104W 6967 03094 0012 +069 +069 180079 080 062 006 00
034500 1557N 07104W 6966 03093 0018 +062 +062 177081 083 063 006 00
034530 1600N 07104W 6967 03089 0014 +066 +066 176085 086 063 007 00
034600 1602N 07104W 6968 03086 0023 +057 +057 175086 087 060 009 00
034630 1605N 07103W 6965 03089 0017 +060 +060 169087 088 060 009 00
034700 1607N 07104W 6969 03081 0013 +060 +060 167089 090 060 008 00
034730 1610N 07105W 6970 03079 0002 +067 +067 162093 094 060 024 03
034800 1612N 07105W 6965 03078 0017 +053 +053 159094 095 063 016 03
$$

[wxmann_91]

NHC forecast points just went slightly south of Jamaica on NHC Satellite loops.

First time I've seen a forecast point predict a category 5 off yucatan.

<joke>It's now guaranteed not to reach Cat 5.</joke>

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hmm. This is interesting. Compare the ULL between the 6z, 12z, 18z and 0z runs...

6z - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif

12z - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_066l.gif

18z - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif

0z - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_054l.gif

It looks a lot stronger at hour 54 on the 0z run than it did during the same time on the other three.

[Aquawind]

and good luck getting in... I lost my connection and it took me 30 minutes to get back in.

It has buffered for me a couple times but sounded great otherwise..yes I like the music too.. I have changed stations so that may help.. Glad you made contact with your family earlier..

[vaffie]

I was noticing that too, EWG.

[HURAKAN]

[Derek Ortt]

remember, there was a G-IV flight tonight