New storm on the horizon??

[Vortex]

H-150 western bahamas still there but weak

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif

[jhamps10]

ok so this thread is for the potential low that could effect SFL right? Question, where in the heck is the system that would spaun this?

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1057 PM AST SAT AUG 18 2007


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM AST SAT AUG 18 2007/

SYNOPSIS... AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. IT WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTHWEST AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH MOVES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
EARLY IN THE WEEK. A RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY BUT MOVES WEST ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN LATER
IN THE WEEK FROM THE EAST AND REMAINS IN THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...AN INVERTED TROUGH AT VERY LOW LATITUDES AROUND 45
WEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER SLOW MOVING TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO THE CARIBBEAN ON
FRIDAY AND OVER THE CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF THE PUERTO RICO BY SUNDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...DEAN IS NOW SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
AS STRONG AS EVER. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH BRIEFLY ON
SUNDAY OVER THE LOCAL AREA...BUT ANOTHER WAVE IS FOLLOWING AND WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE AND MORE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MORE MOISTURE
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THE 12Z GFS DEVELOPS A LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF 10 NORTH NEAR 40 WEST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SLOWLY
WHILE MOVING WEST NORTHWEST. IT CROSSES 10 NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AT
54 WEST...AND 60 WEST AT 11 NORTH ON THURSDAY NIGHT. FROM THERE
THE CURRENT MODEL RUN MOVES IT NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
INTENSITY TO THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF OUR COASTAL ZONE 740 BY SUNDAY
MORNING NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...THE EFFECTS OF DEAN ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. WINDS
ARE LESS AND THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN LIFTED FROM LOWER
ELEVATIONS BELOW 1500 FEET. IT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 10 PM AST. SEAS
ARE ALSO DIMINISHING AND THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
TO 10 PM WHEN IT IS EXPECTED THAT WE WILL ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE. RAIN
BANDS HAVE BEEN ACTIVE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AND RAIN IS AFFECTING MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF THE ISLAND. SINCE PARTIAL BANDS ARE STILL SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO
RICO RICO THE FLASH FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 2 AM
FOR PUERTO RICO EXCEPT THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ADDED FOR MAYAGUEZ AS MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO FALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE ISLAND. IT WILL CONTINUE
OVER VIEQUES AND SAINT CROIX. ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
IN SAINT THOMAS.

SOME DRYING OCCURS ON SATURDAY AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT THERE WILL
BE SOME SUN OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BUT A
SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM WITH THIS WAVE EAST OR NORTH OF THE AREA OR
BOTH...HOWEVER A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY...AND WHILE THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCED
SHOWERS AND SOME HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS IT MOVES TO OUR
WEST. IT WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR IT TO DEVELOP
FURTHER AND MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP IT BEFORE IT MOVES WELL AWAY
FROM THE AREA IF AT ALL.

THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A LOW AS DESCRIBED
IN THE LATTER PARAGRAPH OF THE SYNOPSIS WHICH THE GFS HAS BEEN
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FIRST SLOWER AND THEN FASTER...FIRST NORTH
AND THEN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE WITH MUCH CERTAINTY...BUT THIS COULD BE OUR NEXT
TROPICAL SYSTEM AND POSSIBLY A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE.
BECAUSE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AT UPPER LEVELS THAT WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE EAST OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...THERE
COULD BE VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP..

AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MID LEVEL DRYING WILL ALSO BE NOTICED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE BETTER CONDITIONS WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE THOUGH NOT STRONG AND NOT
BEARING MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS AND ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.

MARINE...SEAS WILL LOWER TO 6 FEET TONIGHT IN THE ATLANTIC. SEAS
IN THE CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 6 FEET BY MID AFTERNOON
ON SUNDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 4 FEET OR LESS FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...THOUGH ATLANTIC WATERS MAY BE A LITTLE HIGHER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HYDROLOGY...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 2 AM FOR THE
SAME AREAS AS BEFORE...WITH EXCEPTION OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO. IT
WAS RAISED FOR MAYAGUEZ IN CASE HEAVY RAINS DEVELOPED IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NOT YET VISIBLE IN THE RADAR STREAMING JUST
SOUTH OF US INTO HURRICANE DEAN 165 MILES SOUTH OF SANTO DOMINGO
AT 5 PM AST. SHOULD HEAVY RAIN NOT DEVELOP BY 10 OR 11 PM IT IS
LIKELY THE WATCH WILL BE CANCELED BEFORE MIDNIGHT FOR ALL OF
PUERTO RICO AND SAINT CROIX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 78 89 / 30 30 40 60
STT 79 87 80 86 / 30 30 40 50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

04/12

[jhamps10]

Ok I am going to assume that this system is the wave at 16N 35W. This is a low with convection developing with it, and it is something that I will be watching tomorrow and monday for signs of development. Possible Invest may be needed, but development will not be fast with this system. However it is in an area of favorable development if it just slows down some, as it is going just as fast, if not faster than Hurricane Dean in the Caribbean.


what's anyone else's thoughts on this feature?

[Vortex]

00z CMC 8/19 updated through H-120 has storm/hurricane still aprroaching Florida. This is a H-120 the model run is still rolling in...

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 36_100.gif

[jhamps10]

yeah Hurricanemaster, 00z GFS also develops this, in fact it has that feature looking stronger than Dean at hour 30 on tonights run. However it goes from a good looking storm to NOTHING in 6 hours on the 0z run tonight, but it develops at 10/40.

actually looking at the satellite in the 10/40 region, something may be trying to form right now to be quite honest. Something that needs watched.

[Vortex]

JHamps i think your right "Ok I am going to assume that this system is the wave at 16N 35W" thats also my estimation

[jhamps10]

Good to know I had someone else agreeing with me on that, well it was hard to figure out since GFS has something blowing up at 10N 40W, which San Juan NWS meantions in AFD, which is posted in the Behind Dean thread.

Those 2 are close to each other, so it could have gotten real confusing.

[Vortex]

Here's a view of the animated loop that "I think" this is what some of the models are latching on 2


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Ptarmigan]

We are entering a more active part of the season, I would not be surprised if another storm formed after Dean.

[Vortex]

CMC 007 8/19 H-132 nearing landfall along the southern florida...h144 not out yet



H-132

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 12_132.jpg

[Zardoz]

...actually looking at the satellite in the 10/40 region, something may be trying to form right now to be quite honest. Something that needs watched.

There appears to be rotation starting, centered at about 12N 44W.

[Ed Mahmoud]

New 0Z Canadian, aka "The Crazy Uncle" says big hurricane less than a week away from Central EC Florida.

[digitaldahling]

Th track labeled CLIP is the Cliper (Climatology and Persistence) in other words it is nothing but the compilation of the average movement of the storms that have passed within a given distance of the location of Dean within roughly the same time period of the season .. it is NOT a "model"

Thanks for the explanation.

[AL Chili Pepper]

I think the area back around 40W 10-15N is what the models are picking up on. There is some weak cyclonic rotation on the WV loop. There is also a large ULL at 30N 55W that is probably what draws it northwest before the ridge to the west traps it and sends it westward. UKMet and GFS show much weaker systems than CMC, but they both do show "something" around south FL in a few days.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

[fci]

It looks like a home grown system that starts in the SE Bahamas; NE of Puerto Rico and North of the Islands 48 hours from now.

CMC does not look like it takes it from any wave out there now.
(if I am reading it right)

[Vortex]

00Z 8/19 CMC brings hurricane to Florida East coast...This model has been consistent on development of a cyclone affection florida for several runs now

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Vortex]

CMC 976MB pressure at landfall in florida

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 12_144.jpg

[Coredesat]

Nothing here:

[Aquawind]

622
AXNT20 KNHC 191155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AS OF 19/1200 UTC THE EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DEAN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST OR
ABOUT 180 MILES...295 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTH-WEST NEAR 16 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 125 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS...THIS
MAKES DEAN A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 921 MB. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALL INTERESTS IN
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POWERFUL HURRICANE.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR THE MOST RECENT WATCH AND
WARNING INFORMATION. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. DEAN
REMAINS VERY IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A WELL-DEFINED
EYE AND SYMMETRIC SIGNATURE TO IT'S EYEWALL ...RAINBANDS AND
OUTFLOW. EYE DIAMETER IS 15 NM. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG IS
WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION...IN SPIRAL BANDS...IS ELSEWHERE FROM 13N-19N
BETWEEN 70W-76W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A VERY LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W S OF 21N MOVING W 15 KT.
A DISTINCT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED NEAR 13N46W. A VERY
BROAD ELONGATED AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING NOW
EXTENDS BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E
OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 36W-44W. PATCHES OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NRN PART OF THE WAVE
FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 39W-52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W
OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 52W-56W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 90W S OF 21N
MOVING W 15-20 KT. A WEAK INVERTED V-SHAPE IS SEEN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE IS BEING MASKED HOWEVER
BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 87W -92W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER S IN THE ERN PACIFIC FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 89W-92W. ...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 8N20W 11N30W 13N40W 11N50W
7N60W. BESIDES THE ACTIVITY MENTIONED ABOVE...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 4N-7N
BETWEEN 25W-28W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS
ALONG 30N. THUS SURFACE WINDS ARE MOSTLY FROM THE E AT 10-15 KT
E OF 80W...AND FROM THE SE AT 10-15 KT W OF 80W. PATCHES OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STREAMING OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE EASTERLIES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE ERN GULF NEAR 25N87W MOVING
W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS BETWEEN 80W-94W. THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 85W-90W. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE WRN GULF PRODUCING NLY FLOW W OF 94W.
ALL EYES ARE ON HURRICANE DEAN WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF ON TUE NIGHT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON POWERFUL CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE
DEAN. DEAN WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. FOR DETAILS REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE
SECTION ABOVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALSO TRAVERSING CENTRAL
AMERICA WITH LIMITED CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NRN VENEZUELA...NRN
COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA S OF 12N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 18N AND W OF
80W. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM DEAN IS NOW NOTED E OF 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE SCALE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ANCHORED BY A
1032 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES AT 38N34W PRODUCING WIDESPREAD FAIR
WEATHER AND MODERATE TRADES E OF 60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N AND W OF 70W THAT IS
PUSHING S AND WILL EFFECT THE FUTURE TRACK OF DEAN. AN UPPER LOW
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N56W MOVING W. LIGHTNING
DATA HAS BEEN DEPICTING A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE FROM 27N-34N BETWEEN 50W-57W. UPPER RIDGING IS OVER
THE ERN ATLANTIC E OF 40W.

$$
FORMOSA