CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[mgpetre]

Heading to bed, but I have a feeling that by sometime tomorrow we are going to be surprised by what that ULL and the remnants of Erin have done to the tracks...

[Starburst]

Not sure where I read it as I have read so much today but I believe I remember a ref from a met saying that the missions data would be factored into Saturday & todays model runs.

[WxGuy1]

This is just speculation Kelly and I could be off base a bit - Been a very long day.

The G4 mission was flown rather late this evening if I remember correctly, so I'm not sure when this data would have been ingested into the models. I would have thought the 0z GFDL run would have indicated any changes if this were to be true.

In no way I'm I claiming that the track is going to begin to shift back N. I'll probably be corrected very quickly with respect to the G4 info. Just wanted to throw that out there. I'm not sure how much this new HWRF model is trusted. I have seen it referenced lately.

It looks like the recon data made it into the NCEP models (GFS, NAM, etc). See the following:

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1047 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007
00Z MODEL CYCLE RUNNING SMOOTHLY AND IS ON TIME. MODEL
STATUS...NGM IS DONE/NAM IS OUT TO T+75 AND THE GFS STARTED
ON TIME.
00Z GFS RAOB RECAP...
YAH/71823 - TTBB NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE NAM. FULL REPORT IN
FOR THE GFS.
BIS/72764 - TTBB NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE NAM. FULL REPORT IN
FOR THE GFS.
RECEIVED A TOTAL OF 8 FLIGHT LEVEL AND 7 DROPSONDES FROM THE
USAFR C-130 IN AND AROUND HURRICANE DEAN.
GOES-W WILL REMAIN IN RSO TIL 0403Z.
$$
WOOLDRIDGE/SDM/NCO/NCEP
q

--> http://weather.noaa.gov/tgstatus/

With the latest data... My probabilities are:

Probability of hitting the Yucatan: 90%
Probability of missing the Yucatan: 10%

Probability of hitting mainland Mexico: 75%
Probability of hitting Texas: 25%
Probability of hitting Louisiana and points east: negligible

[Stratosphere747]

Thanks for that WxGuy....

Any opinion on the HWRF?

[southerngale]

Scott, Didn't they fly last night too? If so, that flight didn't cause a northward shift. I think they went farther south. I realize that conditions change in a day, but at least that's encouraging.

Btw, when I started my post, EWG's post with the Wunderground model map was the last post on here. I was multi-tasking (like I'm ever not? lol) and it took me a few minutes to finish it. I saw there were new posts, but didn't read them until I submitted my post. I hadn't seen the HWRF yet, but it's just one model, and hopefully it's just one run, and not a trend.

[gotoman38]

Next mission 8am EDT

A. 19/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0804A DEAN
C. 19/0930Z
D. BOUY DROP MISSION--12 BOUYS CNTR NEAR 20N 84W
E. 19/1200Z TO 19/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Good job guys!

[Stratosphere747]

I agree Kelly. I'm going against what I've preaching the last few days. All of a sudden flashbacks to Rita crop up and I'm looking for shifts that most likely are not going to happen.

I'm sticking with my benchmarks....

[btangy]

The 00Z GFS continues its shift further S. It handles the upper level low about the same as the 12Z run, but it builds in the 594dm+ 500mb ridge faster keeping the ridge axis more in line with the longitude of Dean and hence, the more southern solution tonight. Even the ensemble mean is starting to be pulled southward as the mid-upper level evolution is becoming clearer. It seems the trend is toward the NOGAPS and ECMWF models, which I think are becoming increasingly likely solutions even though they are on the southern edge of the guidance.

[WxGuy1]

Thanks for that WxGuy....

Any opinion on the HWRF?

The 00z HWRF looks good to me, and it agrees very well with what other models have been showing lately. The hit to the Yucatan has been shifting southward now, and Dean now looks like it may hit south of Cozumel. This means that Dean will spend more time over land, so it will likely drop to Cat 2 before emerging into the Bay of Campeche. The storm may make a little WNW-NW jog while in the southwestern Gulf, and a hit between Brownsville TX and Tampico MX seems very probable now. Props to the GFS if this ends up verifying, since it's been showing this for quite a while (after it had a run or two of forecasting Dean to be a fish).

Speaking of "props". The NHC forecast points have been remarkable. Look at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/gr ... p_5W.shtml (the loop of 5-day forecasts for Dean so far). After some uncertainty regarding whether Dean will turn northwestward a bit east of Puerto Rico, the forecast has been extremely good. Fox example, the 5-day (120hr) forecast point made on the 11am EDT Wednesday forecast package was just south of Jamaica. The timing has been adjusted a little (~6 hrs earlier), but the track error may be <50 miles (and it may be within 10 miles!). Major, major props to the NHC for their forecast of Dean so far. Granted, the relatively good model agreement makes a forecast a little easier (or, rather, adds confidence to the forecast), but that doesn't denounce the fact that the NHC forecast so far has been very good through the past 4 days.

[southerngale]

Scott, what are your benchmarks? I haven't been able to read all the posts and I guess I missed them, although it seems familiar. hmmm, maybe I saw them and just forgot.

[kozzieman]

[quote="mgpetre"]Heading to bed, but I have a feeling that by sometime tomorrow we are going to be surprised by what that ULL and the remnants of Erin have done to the tracks...[/quote]


Explain.

[Stratosphere747]

Scott, what are your benchmarks? I haven't been able to read all the posts and I guess I missed them, although it seems familiar. hmmm, maybe I saw them and just forgot.

It's been talked about here and elsewhere.

For a Texas threat - N of Jamaica and/or thru the Yucatan Channel. Otherwise most likely its Old Mexico.

[kozzieman]

Would someone mind telling me how to put the quote inside of the highlighted box?

[fci]

Cheryl Lemke of TWC said that this was the second most intense hurricane ever and most intense since Hugo

never thought I'd hear something that absurred

TWC got it wrong again. Gilbert is the second most intense Atlantic hurricane on record. Wilma is number one.

No surprise. It's a surprise when they get something right.

I think they were referring to storms East of 70 in the Carib.
That was the chart I saw earlier this evening.
Not speaking of ALL storms.
I believe that was what they were talking about.

[southerngale]

Would someone mind telling me how to put the quote inside of the highlighted box?

You should be able to just click the quote bottom in the bottom right of the post you want to quote.

It will only let you have 3 embedded quotes at a time.

-----------

Good benchmarks, Scott. I now remember reading them.

[Jagno]

Go to the post that you want to quote and hit the quote button on the lower right hand side. This will automatically bring up a reply box with the quote already in it.

[miamicanes177]

Would someone mind telling me how to put the quote inside of the highlighted box?

Sure, hit the quote button located in the bottom right corner of the post which you are quoting...then start typing after [/quote]

[miamicanes177]

18/2345 UTC 16.1N 71.0W T6.5/6.5 DEAN

These are the highest yet

[Ed Mahmoud]

This is just speculation Kelly and I could be off base a bit - Been a very long day.

The G4 mission was flown rather late this evening if I remember correctly, so I'm not sure when this data would have been ingested into the models. I would have thought the 0z GFDL run would have indicated any changes if this were to be true.

In no way I'm I claiming that the track is going to begin to shift back N. I'll probably be corrected very quickly with respect to the G4 info. Just wanted to throw that out there. I'm not sure how much this new HWRF model is trusted. I have seen it referenced lately.

It looks like the recon data made it into the NCEP models (GFS, NAM, etc). See the following:

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1047 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007
00Z MODEL CYCLE RUNNING SMOOTHLY AND IS ON TIME. MODEL
STATUS...NGM IS DONE/NAM IS OUT TO T+75 AND THE GFS STARTED
ON TIME.
00Z GFS RAOB RECAP...
YAH/71823 - TTBB NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE NAM. FULL REPORT IN
FOR THE GFS.
BIS/72764 - TTBB NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE NAM. FULL REPORT IN
FOR THE GFS.
RECEIVED A TOTAL OF 8 FLIGHT LEVEL AND 7 DROPSONDES FROM THE
USAFR C-130 IN AND AROUND HURRICANE DEAN.
GOES-W WILL REMAIN IN RSO TIL 0403Z.
$$
WOOLDRIDGE/SDM/NCO/NCEP
q

--> http://weather.noaa.gov/tgstatus/

With the latest data... My probabilities are:

Probability of hitting the Yucatan: 90%
Probability of missing the Yucatan: 10%

Probability of hitting mainland Mexico: 75%
Probability of hitting Texas: 25%
Probability of hitting Louisiana and points east: negligible

Doesn't mention Gulstream IV data. At this point though, with globals having been fairly consistent for a couple of days, and even GFDL showing South of Border (though Cat 1 conditions to BRO) I think NHC confidence cone around track pretty trustworthy.

I hope GFDL prediction of worst of Dean just misisng Jamaica verifies. Looks like while Yucatan resorts miss very worst, they get a major hurricane in terms of wind, at least per latest GFDL.

[Chacor]

18/2345 UTC 16.1N 71.0W T6.5/6.5 DEAN

These are the highest yet

A bit old, those are from over 6 hours ago.