CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[kozzieman]

[quote="miamicanes177"][quote="kozzieman"]Would someone mind telling me how to put the quote inside of the highlighted box?[/quote]Sure, hit the quote button located in the bottom right corner of the post which you are quoting...then start typing after [/quote][/quote] Testing 123. Well it didn't work; I'll try again later; thanks.

[SETXweatherwatcher]

We were just in the Caribbean in June and everything is so beautiful - Grand Cayman, Jamacia, and Cozumel were the 3 ports that we visited. I wish we could have spent more time on the islands. Everything was kind of rush rush to get back to the Ship in time. I now know people in Grand Cayman and I am so worried for them. Margie and her family as well as Rodney our "tour guide" - and everyone that I don't know - I hope y'all are safe. This comes to you from Port Neches, TX.

Everything that we did was the touristy stuff except in Cayman - we went to Margie's house for lunch after Stingray City and Rodney took us anywhere we wanted to go.

Jamacia was a relaxing time on the beach and then to Margaritaville - except that I didn't expect to see the police (6 of them in one van) with M-16s - that was a little scary! But the island was absolutely gorgoues!!! I hope all are safe there as well.

Cozumel was so much fun! We had a great day there with a party on the beach and a party boat ride. Pedro - y'all take care and be safe as well.

[Coredesat]

Storm2K disclaimer: The following post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

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Intense Hurricane Dean (04L)
Tropical Cyclone Warning - Atlantic
Forecast #4 - 0600 UTC 19 August 2007

...Dean weakens slightly...

Estimated Position: 16.6°N 73.1°W (confidence good, extrapolated)
Est. Maximum Sustained Winds: 120 knots (140 mph)
Est. Minimum Pressure: 921 hPa
Movement: WNW at 15 knots

DISCUSSION

Dean (04L) is still in the middle of an eyewall replacement cycle this morning. Infrared and water vapor satellite imagery shows concentric eyewalls, with the inner eyewall rapidly collapsing. As a result, the eye has contracted somewhat, although it should expand as the outer eyewall stabilizes later this morning. In response to the weakening inner eyewall, the overall convective mass associated with Dean has expanded somewhat, with rainbands now extending over southern Hispaniola. Outflow remains good in all quadrants and conditions appear to be favorable with low shear and moist air in the vicinity. Dvorak estimates are T6.5/6.5 from SAB and T6.0/6.0 from TAFB. Based on recon reports of lower flight-level winds, the intensity is reduced to 120 kt.

The forecast reasoning is unchanged from the previous forecast, given that the models have not shifted much. The current forecast track shows a general west-northwestward motion under the subtropical ridge. Dean should pass near or over Jamaica later today or tonight on this track, and make landfall along the Yucatan Peninsula by the end of the 72 hour forecast period. Strengthening is forecast as Dean completes its eyewall replacement cycle, and Dean may possibly become a Category 5 hurricane before the end of the period.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

Init...16.7°N 73.1°W...120 kt
12 hr...17.2°N 75.7°W...125 kt
24 hr...17.8°N 78.3°W...130 kt
36 hr...18.4°N 80.6°W...135 kt
48 hr...19.1°N 82.8°W...140 kt
72 hr...20.5°N 87.0°W...125 kt...overland

[dwsqos2]

Once again a mildy impressive observation from Barahona, DR...

METAR MDBH 190600Z 11040G80KT 9999 FEW014CB SCT014 BKN100 28/25 Q1009 CB/SE

[wxmann_91]

If you've been reading my personal forecasts (yeah, only the third one I made), I mentioned two possible tracks.

Here's the graphical representation:

(18Z GFS ensembles, from here)



Although I'm ruling out Houston north, south TX is still in the thick of this.

[P.K.]

Public advisory from Jamaica.

BULLETIN No. 12

*** HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT… FORECAST TRACK ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD***
The HURRICANE WARNING for Jamaica remains in effect as Hurricane Dean continues to approach Jamaica. This means that dangerous effects of a hurricane are expected to affect Jamaica in 24 hours or less.

At 10:00 p.m. the centre of Hurricane Dean was located near Latitude 16.2 degrees North, Longitude 71.7 degrees West. This is about 275 km (170 miles) south-southeast of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, or 530 km (330 miles) east-southeast of Morant Point, Jamaica.

Dean is moving towards the west-northwest near 28 km/h (17 mph) and a general west to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased slightly to near 230 km/h (145 mph), with higher gusts, and fluctuations in strength are likely during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward approximately 95 km (60 miles), while tropical storm force winds extend 335 km (205 miles) from the centre.

The forecast track has been adjusted to move the centre of Hurricane Dean over the waters south of Haiti on Sunday morning and close to Jamaica’s southern coastline from Sunday afternoon and through the evening.

Outer bands of the hurricane could, however, start affecting the island early Sunday morning with periods of showers and gusty winds reaching near gale force. As Dean approaches the island, expect heavy rainfall to spread across the island with the potential for severe flash flooding and landslides. Storm surge flooding of 1.5-3 metres (7-9 feet) above normal tide levels along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected near the centre of Dean, especially over southern coastal areas.

All interests should continue to monitor subsequent Releases from the Meteorological Service. The next Bulletin on Hurricane Dean will be issued at 5:00 a.m.

-END-

[HarlequinBoy]

Is the eye clouding up? It does not look as distinct to me, personally.

[SETXweatherwatcher]

I moved this to another thread

[Normandy]

The inner eyewall is eroding and closing up....looks like Dean might be finishing up his ERC soon.

[aerojad]

yeah, it looks like Dean is about ready to kick it into high gear again. maybe this will be the Cat 5 run.

[CronkPSU]

looks to be going a little N of WNW, making a beeline for kingston or perhaps a tad north of it on its current path, eye has gotten smaller the past few frames since the eclipse and looks like something is happening to the NE quad, dry air or shear? maybe just interaction with Domincan Republic?

[Innotech]

the eyewall may miss Jamaica altogether. heres to hoping. Of course then it can just spin up to 190 mph and hit yucatan and wipe out Cozumel/Quinta roo so its not much nicer.

[wxmann_91]

From my amateur eyes, the eyewall is not even close to closing up. The moat is just developing, per CIMSS MIMIC imagery. This ERC will likely take longer than expected due to land interaction w/ Jamaica and Hispaniola. Might not complete until Dean's virtually on top of the Yucatan. We shall see. At the very least I expect continuous eyewall instability until the Caymans. Of course, as a disclaimer, please don't take this info as official.

[HarlequinBoy]

It doesn't look as circular as it did before. The western side isn't as pronounced.

But it still looks like a VERY ominous storm.



EDIT: Looking at a few loops, maybe I was wrong about the western side.

[crazycajuncane]

Wouldn't the whole world freak out if Dean just decided to go NW over the next 24 hours? Just a weird thought. I'm pretty sold on Dean hitting Mexico... maybe South Texas at best. I just hope Dean rides to the north of Jamaica... the power of prayer and mother nature we can hope!!!

[CronkPSU]

Wouldn't the whole world freak out if Dean just decided to go NW over the next 24 hours? Just a weird thought. I'm pretty sold on Dean hitting Mexico... maybe South Texas at best. I just hope Dean rides to the north of Jamaica... the power of prayer and mother nature we can hope!!!

Cuba certainly wouldn't be happy about that at all

[SETXweatherwatcher]

I am very new at this but I was looking at the surface model maps a little while ago and I am confused. Maybe you can help me understand.

The remnants of Erin are in Oklahoma, now and there is a H and a L butting up against each other in New Mexico and a H to our east. What I think is the stearing current, has shifted from around Victoria area to Beaumont. With this set up, how is Dean going to track that far south? What am I missing?

[AJC3]

I am very new at this but I was looking at the surface model maps a little while ago and I am confused. Maybe you can help me understand.

The remnants of Erin are in Oklahoma, now and there is a H and a L butting up against each other in New Mexico and a H to our east. What I think is the stearing current, has shifted from around Victoria area to Beaumont. With this set up, how is Dean going to track that far south? What am I missing?

Only about the other 99.999% of the atmosphere above the surface. j/k

Seriously though, what you need to be looking at is the current and forecast deep layer steering currents. Usually this would mean looking at mean layer heights and winds (for instance mean 850-300MB heights and winds) , however but since those are hard to find online, a decent first-guess proxy would be 500MB heights/winds.

The most pronounced feature to be looking at is the strong ridge over the southeast CONUS and western ATLC and how it builds westward with time in the wake of the retrograding mid/upper level low.

[SETXweatherwatcher]

Thank you - I will see what I can find.

[Sanibel]

921 - 145mph

Small uncircular eye, warm tops in large CDO

Current track stays just offshore Jamaica to south. Could veer over island still.

Back to sleep.