CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Aquawind]

126
URNT12 KNHC 191309
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 19/12:19:10Z
B. 16 deg 44 min N
074 deg 23 min W
C. 700 mb 2445 m
D. 125 kt
E. 127 deg 23 nm
F. 206 deg 110 kt
G. 115 deg 013 nm
H. 923 mb
I. 11 C/ 3036 m
J. 19 C/ 3046 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO16-34
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0904A DEAN OB 02
MAX FL WIND 110 KT SE QUAD 12:15:20 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND FROM CNTR 142 KT @ 12:27:20Z

[jrod]

The recon reports seem to indicate a stronger storm. Like the rest of us, I want to see what they find in the NE quandrant. They already found flight level winds of 141kts in the NW quad.

[Aquawind]

959
WHXX01 KWBC 191311
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1311 UTC SUN AUG 19 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEAN (AL042007) 20070819 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070819 1200 070820 0000 070820 1200 070821 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.8N 74.3W 18.0N 77.8W 19.1N 81.6W 19.9N 85.4W
BAMD 16.8N 74.3W 17.5N 77.3W 18.2N 80.4W 18.8N 83.7W
BAMM 16.8N 74.3W 17.7N 77.8W 18.4N 81.5W 19.1N 85.1W
LBAR 16.8N 74.3W 17.5N 77.7W 18.5N 81.3W 19.7N 85.0W
SHIP 125KTS 132KTS 140KTS 146KTS
DSHP 125KTS 132KTS 140KTS 146KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070821 1200 070822 1200 070823 1200 070824 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.6N 89.3W 21.9N 95.9W 23.0N 101.8W 23.5N 106.7W
BAMD 19.5N 87.1W 21.1N 94.0W 22.6N 100.8W 24.5N 106.6W
BAMM 19.8N 88.6W 21.1N 95.5W 22.3N 101.9W 23.2N 107.4W
LBAR 21.2N 88.6W 24.6N 95.8W 21.1N 100.6W .0N .0W
SHIP 144KTS 131KTS 110KTS 102KTS
DSHP 105KTS 69KTS 36KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.8N LONCUR = 74.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 71.0W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 15.4N LONM24 = 67.9W
WNDCUR = 125KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 125KT
CENPRS = 923MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 180NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 150NM

$$
NNNN


Still 146kts..

[Frank P]

Not to be a wobble watcher but ......... wobbles get quite critical as the system approaches land and could have a big factor in how much of the eye wall is delivered to the area.. last sat loop pix I just saw delineated a pretty decent NW wobble... you should assume within the next loop or two it should wobble back to the west... to keep it basically on track... however, ever little wobble to the nw as it approaches Jamaica is not a good sign... they need as many west wobbles as they can get ...

this loop clearly shows that wobble..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/loop-vis.html

[Weatherfreak14]

Yes, wobbles are very critical, in any landfall, i hope dean takes a huge W to WSW wooble to pass under the island but that is a wish....

[mgpetre]

What will be the effect if any of the ULL in the gulf of course, and the fact that Erin has intensified on land to tropical storm status (pretty much) have on the models?

The ULL low will continue west and the high will continue to build in behind, former Erin is a non factor.

I don't see how you can say Erin is a non factor. It could effect both the progression of the ULL and/or the ridge in the SE. If the remnants continue to explode and spin and decide to remain stationary, I just don't see the high building in as the models predict. None of the models really show anything like Erin from my relatively untrained view.

[Aquawind]

Not to be a wobble watcher but ......... wobbles get quite critical as the system approaches land and could have a big factor in how much of the eye wall is delivered to the area.. last sat loop pix I just saw delineated a pretty decent NW wobble... you should assume within the next loop or two it should wobble back to the west... to keep it basically on track... however, ever little wobble to the nw as it approaches Jamaica is not a good sign... they need as many west wobbles as they can get ...

this loop clearly shows that wobble..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/loop-vis.html

Agreed.. It's going to be so close. Any closer than forecast is eyewall. Wobble timing could be critical for the southern coastline..

[x-y-no]

Unfortunately, Jamaica is sitting in a hot bath ...

[deltadog03]

I would rather see it go north of jamaica....That would not be as bad as going south.

[CronkPSU]

Not to be a wobble watcher but ......... wobbles get quite critical as the system approaches land and could have a big factor in how much of the eye wall is delivered to the area.. last sat loop pix I just saw delineated a pretty decent NW wobble... you should assume within the next loop or two it should wobble back to the west... to keep it basically on track... however, ever little wobble to the nw as it approaches Jamaica is not a good sign... they need as many west wobbles as they can get ...

this loop clearly shows that wobble..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/loop-vis.html

it is already north of the next NHC point, of course it could correct itself with a WSW wobble like it has done in the past but getting less and less time to go south of jamaica

[tolakram]

What will be the effect if any of the ULL in the gulf of course, and the fact that Erin has intensified on land to tropical storm status (pretty much) have on the models?

The ULL low will continue west and the high will continue to build in behind, former Erin is a non factor.

I don't see how you can say Erin is a non factor. It could effect both the progression of the ULL and/or the ridge in the SE. If the remnants continue to explode and spin and decide to remain stationary, I just don't see the high building in as the models predict. None of the models really show anything like Erin from my relatively untrained view.

How?

From what I understand Erin is a low level low while the features important to steering are all in the upper levels.

[HURAKAN]

[Aquawind]

Kingston to Portland Point is going to have alot of Storm Surge pushed up into those bays..not to forget the rainwater coming down from the mountains..

http://www.jamaicancaves.org/jamaica-road-map.jpg

[mgpetre]

How?

From what I understand Erin is a low level low while the features important to steering are all in the upper levels.

Perhaps I am wrong, but I am goint under an assumption that Erin is still creating a localized effect on the upper atmosphere as it's storms build. It may just be feeding into the H pressure in the SE, but that in itself will have an effect on the movement of the high. I just don't have the confidence that everyone else seems to have that the ULL will move into Mexico at the same rate Dean progresses into the gulf. As a matter a fact, I have a hunch that the ULL is going to head into the mid-texas coast, just a hunch and very well may not pan out. Please don't flame. I have stated all along that the models know much more than I do, but I don't see harm in having an outlier opinion myself. I really hope that I'm wrong.

[MusicCityMan]

192 mph!? That means it's going to bomb out again after it lashes Jamaica.. My goodness..

[Javlin]

Not to be a wobble watcher but ......... wobbles get quite critical as the system approaches land and could have a big factor in how much of the eye wall is delivered to the area.. last sat loop pix I just saw delineated a pretty decent NW wobble... you should assume within the next loop or two it should wobble back to the west... to keep it basically on track... however, ever little wobble to the nw as it approaches Jamaica is not a good sign... they need as many west wobbles as they can get ...

this loop clearly shows that wobble..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/loop-vis.html

I have been noticing that also Frank it is stair stepping,looks like almost 3 frames slight NofW then 2 to the NW.I am still not buying the S of Jamaica solution.The scenario a few days ago was static(lack of a better word) for the WNW route just the High to the N now it has gotten more dynamic with the ULL in the picture.Now if Dean can go S of the ULL then I buy the WNW solution just never have seen it Claudette in 03? went around the ULL into N TX,followed the CCW flow.Hey I am just a hick from MS

[HURAKAN]

731
URNT15 KNHC 191328
AF304 0904A DEAN HDOB 23 20070819
131800 1605N 07604W 6967 03150 0052 +091 +058 356034 035 011 005 00
131830 1603N 07604W 6967 03155 0047 +095 +056 356034 035 011 005 00
131900 1601N 07605W 6967 03154 0052 +092 +057 356035 036 012 004 00
131930 1559N 07605W 6967 03154 0059 +088 +061 353036 037 012 005 00
132000 1557N 07605W 6968 03154 0058 +088 +061 351038 039 016 005 00
132030 1555N 07605W 6967 03155 0059 +089 +068 344037 039 016 006 00
132100 1552N 07606W 6968 03155 0061 +087 +076 338033 034 015 006 00
132130 1550N 07606W 6965 03159 0066 +082 +076 338033 034 014 006 00
132200 1548N 07606W 6967 03157 0072 +077 +077 341036 037 017 006 00
132230 1546N 07607W 6967 03159 0071 +079 +079 341037 038 017 006 00
132300 1544N 07607W 6965 03159 0073 +078 +078 340036 037 019 006 00
132330 1542N 07607W 6969 03156 0072 +081 +079 348034 034 017 005 00
132400 1540N 07608W 6967 03158 0069 +084 +081 345033 033 019 006 00
132430 1538N 07608W 6966 03162 0070 +083 +079 342034 034 021 007 00
132500 1536N 07608W 6959 03173 0074 +082 +082 340033 035 999 999 03
132530 1535N 07606W 6974 03151 0077 +079 +079 334029 030 031 008 03
132600 1534N 07605W 6967 03163 0081 +077 +077 324021 022 031 009 03
132630 1534N 07603W 6960 03170 0083 +074 +074 316021 022 019 014 03
132700 1536N 07602W 6967 03160 0071 +081 +081 321017 020 026 007 03
132730 1537N 07601W 6966 03161 0071 +082 +082 322016 018 027 007 03
$$

[Frank P]

I would rather see it go north of jamaica....That would not be as bad as going south.

Yeah, but at the moment the set up is not looking too good... I would say atm its just a matter of complete and total devastation as opposed to just complete devastation... bad, bad, bad

Kevin, just watching this loop brings flashbacks from Katrina... how I was plotting every single coordinate, measuring the distance from my house to what I thought was the eye wall... trying calculate what the storm surge should be in my area based on where I thougth the eye wall was going to go inland... and what kind of winds should I expect.. plotting crap all over the place... praying for every little wobble to the west I could get.... when Katrina straight lined north that was it for me.... I knew the ball game was over and I'd get my butt kicked big time... the rest is history... the criticality of wobbles also vaaries with the size of the storm... after the fact, Katrina's wobbles really didn't matter all that much to the MS coast it was so big... however, a couple of more wobbles to the west could have completely destroyed the big easy...

[dixiebreeze]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-l.jpg

[Starburst]

What will be the effect if any of the ULL in the gulf of course, and the fact that Erin has intensified on land to tropical storm status (pretty much) have on the models?

The ULL low will continue west and the high will continue to build in behind, former Erin is a non factor.

I don't see how you can say Erin is a non factor. It could effect both the progression of the ULL and/or the ridge in the SE. If the remnants continue to explode and spin and decide to remain stationary, I just don't see the high building in as the models predict. None of the models really show anything like Erin from my relatively untrained view.

See that is what I was not sure of because erin was embedded in the ridge and the models did not pick up on Erin strengthening to a tropical storm inland over Oklahoma today.