New storm on the horizon??

[SeaBrz_FL]

Any comments on the CMC's prediction for a FL East Coast Hurricane late next week?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Vortex mentioned this Bahama "home grown system" in a couple other threads here earlier this morning, but received no responses.

I totally understand that everyone else is focusing on Dean, but if this CMC system is a possibility, it's a real short-tracker for those of us on the FL EC.

I don't recall ever paying attention to a CMC track in the past. Hopefully it's totally whacko.

Thanks for any feedback.

[Emmett_Brown]

Hmm... Interesting. I dont know about the accuracy of that model. If it were to happen, it looks like the Tropical Wave at 46 W might be to culprit.

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/Atl_Tropics.gif

As we have seen in recent years, we have to look out for home brew. You can also see this wave nicely near the islands in 48 hours on this GFS surface map:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/slp_48.gif

Shear in the region will be favorable in 48 hours per this map:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_48.gif

Looks like a legit system to keep an eye on. Nothing organized at the moment, but who knows.

[SeaBrz_FL]

Thanks, Emmett, I appreciate the feedback. Dammit -- hoped the CMC had little validity. Isn't it really early in the season for these Carib home brews? Seems like those in the past were much later.

Anyway, off to think about canceling my out-of-state business trip tomorrow. I definitely don't want to be fighting for a seat home later in the week.

And more importantly, back to watching Dean and praying for all those in the path this week. I have left little pieces of my heart in both Jamaica and Cancun in past years, and it makes me sick to my stomach knowing what they are facing.

[windstorm99]

Just takeing a view at the global models this morning and i noticed how the CMC model has been now showing a pretty significant system affecting the eastcaost of florida in the coming days.It been showing this for a few runs now and at the moment there is not much model support to get to concerned but all in all it would not surprise me to see more models picking up on tropical development in the next few days as conditions look favorable in the region.Unfortunately this season is only starting for the eastcoast and hopefully everyone has a plan in place as we approach the meat of the season in the coming weeks.

Here a view of the lastest CMC showing a hurricane in south florida

[flwxwatcher]

The GFS has been hinting at this the last few days as well and so has the UKMET .

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[windstorm99]

THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A LOW AS DESCRIBED
IN THE LATTER PARAGRAPH OF THE SYNOPSIS WHICH THE GFS HAS BEEN
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FIRST SLOWER AND THEN FASTER...FIRST NORTH
AND THEN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE WITH MUCH CERTAINTY...BUT THIS COULD BE OUR NEXT
TROPICAL SYSTEM AND POSSIBLY A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE.
BECAUSE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AT UPPER LEVELS THAT WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE EAST OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...THERE
COULD BE VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP..

Something to keep an eye on for sure...

[jhamps10]

THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A LOW AS DESCRIBED
IN THE LATTER PARAGRAPH OF THE SYNOPSIS WHICH THE GFS HAS BEEN
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FIRST SLOWER AND THEN FASTER...FIRST NORTH
AND THEN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE WITH MUCH CERTAINTY...BUT THIS COULD BE OUR NEXT
TROPICAL SYSTEM AND POSSIBLY A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE.
BECAUSE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AT UPPER LEVELS THAT WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE EAST OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...THERE
COULD BE VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP..

Something to keep an eye on for sure...

Indeed, in fact it looks like it has it hitting EC of florida, alomst on a 2004 hurricane track, then takes it west towards the GOM too. ALthough that disco describes about a wave in the 10-15N 40W area. THIS appears to be something that develops away from that. however the entire area is something to watch.

[Robjohn53]

Seems like CMC has had it in for Florida for a while now, just hope it's not gonna be true this time. I read several time people saying it could be a 2004 year and this would could fall into the same rutine. we got 2 in or about the same place there Jeanne and Francsis. CMC has not been to dependible so i hope for our sakes it's still is.

Robjohn53

[jhamps10]

Seems like CMC has had it in for Florida for a while now, just hope it's not gonna be true this time. I read several time people saying it could be a 2004 year and this would could fall into the same rutine. we got 2 in or about the same place there Jeanne and Francsis. CMC has not been to dependible so i hope for our sakes it's still is.

Robjohn53

well it wasn't just CMC with this, Ukmet had it for a while, as well as GFS, abit in a much weaker fashion.

[wzrgirl1]

wasn't even mentioned on TWC's tropical update this morning

[jhamps10]

wasn't even mentioned on TWC's tropical update this morning

yeah no kidding, too busy with Dean and the resurgeance of Erin in Oklahoma.

[johngaltfla]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1057 PM AST SAT AUG 18 2007


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM AST SAT AUG 18 2007/

SYNOPSIS... AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. IT WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTHWEST AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH MOVES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
EARLY IN THE WEEK. A RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY BUT MOVES WEST ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN LATER
IN THE WEEK FROM THE EAST AND REMAINS IN THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...AN INVERTED TROUGH AT VERY LOW LATITUDES AROUND 45
WEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER SLOW MOVING TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO THE CARIBBEAN ON
FRIDAY AND OVER THE CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF THE PUERTO RICO BY SUNDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...DEAN IS NOW SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
AS STRONG AS EVER. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH BRIEFLY ON
SUNDAY OVER THE LOCAL AREA...BUT ANOTHER WAVE IS FOLLOWING AND WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE AND MORE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MORE MOISTURE
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THE 12Z GFS DEVELOPS A LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF 10 NORTH NEAR 40 WEST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SLOWLY
WHILE MOVING WEST NORTHWEST. IT CROSSES 10 NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AT
54 WEST...AND 60 WEST AT 11 NORTH ON THURSDAY NIGHT. FROM THERE
THE CURRENT MODEL RUN MOVES IT NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
INTENSITY TO THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF OUR COASTAL ZONE 740 BY SUNDAY
MORNING NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...THE EFFECTS OF DEAN ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. WINDS
ARE LESS AND THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN LIFTED FROM LOWER
ELEVATIONS BELOW 1500 FEET. IT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 10 PM AST. SEAS
ARE ALSO DIMINISHING AND THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
TO 10 PM WHEN IT IS EXPECTED THAT WE WILL ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE. RAIN
BANDS HAVE BEEN ACTIVE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AND RAIN IS AFFECTING MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF THE ISLAND. SINCE PARTIAL BANDS ARE STILL SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO
RICO RICO THE FLASH FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 2 AM
FOR PUERTO RICO EXCEPT THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ADDED FOR MAYAGUEZ AS MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO FALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE ISLAND. IT WILL CONTINUE
OVER VIEQUES AND SAINT CROIX. ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
IN SAINT THOMAS.

SOME DRYING OCCURS ON SATURDAY AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT THERE WILL
BE SOME SUN OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BUT A
SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM WITH THIS WAVE EAST OR NORTH OF THE AREA OR
BOTH...HOWEVER A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY...AND WHILE THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCED
SHOWERS AND SOME HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS IT MOVES TO OUR
WEST. IT WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR IT TO DEVELOP
FURTHER AND MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP IT BEFORE IT MOVES WELL AWAY
FROM THE AREA IF AT ALL.

THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A LOW AS DESCRIBED
IN THE LATTER PARAGRAPH OF THE SYNOPSIS WHICH THE GFS HAS BEEN
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FIRST SLOWER AND THEN FASTER...FIRST NORTH
AND THEN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE WITH MUCH CERTAINTY...BUT THIS COULD BE OUR NEXT
TROPICAL SYSTEM AND POSSIBLY A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE.
BECAUSE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AT UPPER LEVELS THAT WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE EAST OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...THERE
COULD BE VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP..

AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MID LEVEL DRYING WILL ALSO BE NOTICED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE BETTER CONDITIONS WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE THOUGH NOT STRONG AND NOT
BEARING MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS AND ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.

MARINE...SEAS WILL LOWER TO 6 FEET TONIGHT IN THE ATLANTIC. SEAS
IN THE CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 6 FEET BY MID AFTERNOON
ON SUNDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 4 FEET OR LESS FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...THOUGH ATLANTIC WATERS MAY BE A LITTLE HIGHER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HYDROLOGY...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 2 AM FOR THE
SAME AREAS AS BEFORE...WITH EXCEPTION OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO. IT
WAS RAISED FOR MAYAGUEZ IN CASE HEAVY RAINS DEVELOPED IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NOT YET VISIBLE IN THE RADAR STREAMING JUST
SOUTH OF US INTO HURRICANE DEAN 165 MILES SOUTH OF SANTO DOMINGO
AT 5 PM AST. SHOULD HEAVY RAIN NOT DEVELOP BY 10 OR 11 PM IT IS
LIKELY THE WATCH WILL BE CANCELED BEFORE MIDNIGHT FOR ALL OF
PUERTO RICO AND SAINT CROIX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 78 89 / 30 30 40 60
STT 79 87 80 86 / 30 30 40 50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

04/12

I could really have done without reading this. I know Florida usually doesn't get much in the late-August to mid-September time frame, but when we do, they are monsters.

Let's pray this goes fishing gang.

[DIDDLESBABE]

I know all are busy with Dean, but when does everyone think this will
be picked up, and talked about. Hope it does not happen, but "late
next week" is really not that far off......

[wzrgirl1]

none of the models really develop this except the cmc....i wouldn't worry too much as this is not a favorable area for a south florida hit in august

[windstorm99]

none of the models really develop this except the cmc....i wouldn't worry too much as this is not a favorable area for a south florida hit in august

Uh.....Thats absolutely not true.With high pressure building this entire looks to be very favorable for something to pop up and if the set-up is right an eastcoast threat is a real possibility.Unfortunately the season is only starting .

NWS-Puerto rico

THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A LOW AS DESCRIBED
IN THE LATTER PARAGRAPH OF THE SYNOPSIS WHICH THE GFS HAS BEEN
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FIRST SLOWER AND THEN FASTER...FIRST NORTH
AND THEN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE WITH MUCH CERTAINTY...BUT THIS COULD BE OUR NEXT
TROPICAL SYSTEM AND POSSIBLY A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE.
BECAUSE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AT UPPER LEVELS THAT WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE EAST OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...THERE
COULD BE VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP..

[wzrgirl1]

none of the models really develop this except the cmc....i wouldn't worry too much as this is not a favorable area for a south florida hit in august

Uh.....Thats absolutely not true.With high pressure building this entire looks to be very favorable for something to pop up and if the set-up is right an eastcoast threat is a real possibility.Unfortunately the season is only starting .

NWS-Puerto rico

THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A LOW AS DESCRIBED
IN THE LATTER PARAGRAPH OF THE SYNOPSIS WHICH THE GFS HAS BEEN
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FIRST SLOWER AND THEN FASTER...FIRST NORTH
AND THEN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE WITH MUCH CERTAINTY...BUT THIS COULD BE OUR NEXT
TROPICAL SYSTEM AND POSSIBLY A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE.
BECAUSE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AT UPPER LEVELS THAT WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE EAST OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...THERE
COULD BE VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP..

wow i didn't see that discussion....thanks for sharing...let's hope it doesn't pan out....not much discussion about it yet....i guess they are a little busy

[jaxfladude]

wasn't even mentioned on TWC's tropical update this morning

yeah no kidding, too busy with Dean and the resurgeance of Erin in Oklahoma.

Yep she is just singing:

They couldn't pick a better time to start in life
It ain't too early and it ain't too late
Starting as a farmer with a brand new wife
Soon be living in a brand new state!
Brand new state, gonna treat you great!
Gonna give you barley, carrots and pertaters,
Pasture fer the cattle, spinach and termayters!
Flowers on the prairie where the Junebugs zoom,
Plen'y of air and plen'y of room,
Plen'y of room to swing a rope,
Plen'y of heart and plen'y of hope!

Oklahoma! Where the wind comes sweepin' down the plain
And the wavin' wheat can sure smell sweet
When the wind comes right behind the rain.
Oklahoma! Ev'ry night my honey lamb and I
Sit alone and talk and watch a hawk
Makin' lazy circles in the sky.
We know we belong to the land
And the land we belong to is grand!
And when we say
"Yeeow! Ayipioeeay!"
We're only sayin'
"You're doin' fine, Oklahoma!"
Oklahoma O.K.

[Zardoz]

Nothing here

This is nothing? I don't understand:

A VERY LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W S OF 21N MOVING W 15 KT.
A DISTINCT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED NEAR 13N46W. A VERY
BROAD ELONGATED AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING NOW
EXTENDS BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E
OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 36W-44W. PATCHES OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NRN PART OF THE WAVE
FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 39W-52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W
OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 52W-56W.

[Aquawind]

132
ABNT20 KNHC 191510
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DEAN...LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN...LOCATED NEAR CHANDLER OKLAHOMA.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS LOCATED
ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[weatherwindow]

just looking at the gfs 06z and the cmc 00z....the gfs drops it and the cmc carries it to fla at 144hr...while the ridging mentioned in the nws/sju discussion persists east of 70-75west, it weakens dramatically as an east coast trof deepens late in the forecast period...if something forms, the chances of it getting as far west as fla is fading as the ridging retreats east....of course, "subject to change".....rich