CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

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marcane_1973
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Re:

#9241 Postby marcane_1973 » Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:23 am

fasterdisaster wrote:I still can't see missing Jamaica to the south, it honestly looks straight headed for the island.

Me either. Looks like most of the island will be in the northern eyewall. Dude on power 106 in jamaica says he thinks it will not be a slam dunk and go south and get a little rain and wind and get just the outer fringes of the eyewall. :roll: I wish I was as positive as him.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (8 AM page 251) Discussions, Analysis

#9242 Postby miamicanes177 » Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:23 am

141030 1707N 07436W 6979 02853 9990 +066 +999 139141 145 111 028 01

145kts at flight level...150mph surface
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#9243 Postby Meso » Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:24 am

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Re: Hurricane DEAN Recon obs

#9244 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:24 am

I have never seen 2 planes at the same time in a storm. Do they do this often?
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#9245 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:25 am

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#9246 Postby x-y-no » Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:26 am

Let's keep discussion in the recon discussion thread, please.

Thanks
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (8 AM page 251) Discussions, Analysis

#9247 Postby fasterdisaster » Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:27 am

miamicanes177 wrote:141030 1707N 07436W 6979 02853 9990 +066 +999 139141 145 111 028 01

145kts at flight level...150mph surface


And it starts...Category 5 could be coming.
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#9248 Postby tallywx » Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:28 am

I have to disagree with those saying it's currently heading straight for Jamaica. If you open up this loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

and plot the lat-lon lines, you can see that for the past four hours, Dean has moved almost due west (and this is taking into consideration the trochoidal wobbles). The way it's going right now, I say it passes at least 0.5 degrees south of the south coast of Jamaica. Let's hope this holds.
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Re: Hurricane Dean Forecasts in AF

#9249 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:29 am

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=97244

#15... 150KT peak intensity
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Re:

#9250 Postby fasterdisaster » Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:29 am

tallywx wrote:I have to disagree with those saying it's currently heading straight for Jamaica. If you open up this loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

and plot the lat-lon lines, you can see that for the past four hours, Dean has moved almost due west (and this is taking into consideration the trochoidal wobbles). The way it's going right now, I say it passes at least 0.5 degrees south of the south coast of Jamaica. Let's hope this holds.


It's a wobble.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (8 AM page 251) Discussions, Analysis

#9251 Postby HollynLA » Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:30 am

canetracker wrote:http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?chnl=uw4&domain=amr&period=720&incr=30&rr=900&banner=uhmet&satplat=goes12&overlay=off

A few comments from looking at this sat pic. Looks like Dean is riding under the high, the upper level low is not moving as fast as it was yesterday. Looks like high pressure is trying to build in around central Texas area from the remnants of Erin.


I read this comment elsewhere too this morning, but am I correct in saying that this would still not affect the current track of Dean?
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (8 AM page 251) Discussions, Analysis

#9252 Postby Cape Verde » Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:32 am

It's clearly going to pass south of Jamaica, although that's somewhat worse than yesterday when it appeared that it would be somewhat north of the island. Good for us; not so good for them.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (8 AM page 251) Discussions, Analysis

#9253 Postby fasterdisaster » Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:34 am

Cape Verde wrote:It's clearly going to pass south of Jamaica, although that's somewhat worse than yesterday when it appeared that it would be somewhat north of the island. Good for us; not so good for them.


How can you say it's clearly going south of Jamaica? It could, but it's on course for Kingston right now. It has wobbled west for an hour now, but that can't continue long unfortunately for the island. If it resumes its WNW course that just wobbled it will head straight for Kingston.
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#9254 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:36 am

lets not focus on the wobbles. We have had hundreds of posts saying its going north and south of the island

at the very least, destructive hurricane force winds will be occurring, if not the eyewall itself
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (8 AM page 251) Discussions, Analysis

#9255 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:36 am

If Dean follows the NHC track would the 145 mph winds stay offshore of Jamica?
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (8 AM page 251) Discussions, Analysis

#9256 Postby canetracker » Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:37 am

HollynLA wrote:
canetracker wrote:http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?chnl=uw4&domain=amr&period=720&incr=30&rr=900&banner=uhmet&satplat=goes12&overlay=off

A few comments from looking at this sat pic. Looks like Dean is riding under the high, the upper level low is not moving as fast as it was yesterday. Looks like high pressure is trying to build in around central Texas area from the remnants of Erin.


I read this comment elsewhere too this morning, but am I correct in saying that this would still not affect the current track of Dean?


2 days ago, a local met said the only way we could have a problem is if the ULL stalled. I wish there was a pro met on board to chime in on this.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (8 AM page 251) Discussions, Analysis

#9257 Postby Sanibel » Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:37 am

No one wants to see suffering and devastation. Cross my fingers, this one looks to be passing well south of Jamaica. The south shore will probably get outside category 3 winds but the north shore should get less. Anything can happen and a 295* turn is always possible, but I'll bet Jamaicans are very happy right now to miss the eye over Kingston. Good news for Jamaica, bad news for the receivers of an unweakned Dean further west.
Last edited by Sanibel on Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (8 AM page 251) Discussions, Analysis

#9258 Postby Cape Verde » Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:38 am

The eye and the forecast path are taking it south of Jamaica. I'm not saying the storm won't hit Jamaica. It obviously will. The eye is not going to hit Kingston. It would have to take an abrupt turn to do that.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (8 AM page 251) Discussions, Analysis

#9259 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:38 am

fasterdisaster wrote:
Cape Verde wrote:It's clearly going to pass south of Jamaica, although that's somewhat worse than yesterday when it appeared that it would be somewhat north of the island. Good for us; not so good for them.


How can you say it's clearly going south of Jamaica? It could, but it's on course for Kingston right now. It has wobbled west for an hour now, but that can't continue long unfortunately for the island. If it resumes its WNW course that just wobbled it will head straight for Kingston.


Dean is nearly, if not more that, 100 miles SE of Jamaica at this time, moving west or "wobbling". It could very well wobble back to the north, but it has to take one hell of a turn, almost NW, to scrape the back half of the island
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (8 AM page 251) Discussions, Analysis

#9260 Postby HollynLA » Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:39 am

canetracker wrote:
HollynLA wrote:
canetracker wrote:http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?chnl=uw4&domain=amr&period=720&incr=30&rr=900&banner=uhmet&satplat=goes12&overlay=off

A few comments from looking at this sat pic. Looks like Dean is riding under the high, the upper level low is not moving as fast as it was yesterday. Looks like high pressure is trying to build in around central Texas area from the remnants of Erin.


I read this comment elsewhere too this morning, but am I correct in saying that this would still not affect the current track of Dean?


2 days ago, a local met said the only way we could have a problem is if the ULL stalled. I wish there was a pro met on board to chime in on this.


Right, but I consider stalling more like stopping rather than just slowing down. How much has it slowed? Is it really significant enough to change things?
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