Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

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dixiebreeze
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#341 Postby dixiebreeze » Sun Aug 19, 2007 11:01 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv-l.jpg

double eye or optical illusion
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#342 Postby gotoman38 » Sun Aug 19, 2007 11:09 am

dixiebreeze wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv-l.jpg

double eye or optical illusion


No mention in the lastest VDM

A. 19/15:22:50Z
B. 16 deg 56 min N
075 deg 15 min W
C. NA mb 2455 m
D. 110 kt
E. 301 deg 012 nm
F. 050 deg 132 kt
G. 307 deg 021 nm
H. 928 mb
I. NA C/ 3015 m
J. 16 C/ 3046 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO 10-40
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0904A DEAN OB 15
MAX FL WIND 145 KT NE QUAD 14:10:30 Z
UNABLE TO FIX CENTER DUE TO UNDERCAST
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#343 Postby ALhurricane » Sun Aug 19, 2007 11:11 am

The recon did report double (concentric) eyewalls, one 10 miles in diameter and the larger one 40 miles wide.

The pressure has also risen some more and the eye has become cloud filled. I think we are finally seeing the final processes of the ERC.
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#344 Postby gotoman38 » Sun Aug 19, 2007 11:12 am

They finally mentioned the 145kt FL from the second pass
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#345 Postby x-y-no » Sun Aug 19, 2007 12:21 pm

170830 1722N 07535W 6927 02895 9990 +074 +999 119135 144 114 025 05
170900 1724N 07536W 6964 02889 9990 +056 +999 109138 142 105 033 01
170930 1726N 07537W 6968 02908 9990 +056 +999 108140 141 102 023 01
171000 1728N 07537W 7028 02865 9828 +077 +077 106134 138 100 019 00
171030 1730N 07538W 6973 02953 9840 +087 +087 103128 131 092 004 03

Five flight level readings in a row over 130 kts.

NE quad.
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#346 Postby gotoman38 » Sun Aug 19, 2007 12:23 pm

Headed off to the NW - I guess they're sampling the right-front quad as it approaches Jamaica.

Looks like a hard hit for them
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#347 Postby gotoman38 » Sun Aug 19, 2007 12:35 pm

They've turned east - likely headed for home.

Waiting for the VDM - the last fix before Jamaica is likely in this vicinity
170200 1659N 07544W 6965 02516 9282 +151 +151 020000 006 021 005 03

On this track - it looks to me that the center will be about 30 mi south off the S coast of Jamaica this evening.
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#348 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 19, 2007 12:44 pm

I would guess the intensity at this point is 130 kt.
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#349 Postby Sanibel » Sun Aug 19, 2007 12:49 pm

Eye over Morant Cay right now. A group of four low-lying islands surrounded by a coral bank 35 miles SE of Jamaica. Mostly uninhabited.
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#350 Postby gotoman38 » Sun Aug 19, 2007 1:11 pm

From this plot of VDMs and significant winds in the last recon - looks like the strongest winds will likely hit Jamaica's coast S of Kingston and Spanish Town head on.

Image
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#351 Postby artist » Sun Aug 19, 2007 3:59 pm

have they taken off yet?
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#352 Postby WindRunner » Sun Aug 19, 2007 4:18 pm

Nothing yet . . . at least data-wise . . .
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#353 Postby artist » Sun Aug 19, 2007 4:55 pm

strange, huh?
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#354 Postby Pebbles » Sun Aug 19, 2007 5:26 pm

Any idea what happened to recon?
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#355 Postby miamicanes177 » Sun Aug 19, 2007 5:43 pm

Maybe they did not fly because the eye was too close to land
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#356 Postby gotoman38 » Sun Aug 19, 2007 5:47 pm

Just took off from St Croix
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#357 Postby gotoman38 » Sun Aug 19, 2007 5:51 pm

Henk's GE file is being updated tonight

http://wxgr.nl/tmppic/Recons.kmz
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#358 Postby Aquawind » Sun Aug 19, 2007 5:52 pm

Excellent.. Obs as is passes Jamaica and organizes from ERC. This should be an interesting flight..
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#359 Postby gotoman38 » Sun Aug 19, 2007 6:05 pm

Henk is showing 2 flights.

One just left Ct Croix and another S of Haiti. I can't find data for that one though.

Anyone know?

(Dinner time here - can't post obs)
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#360 Postby RL3AO » Sun Aug 19, 2007 6:07 pm

gotoman38 wrote:Henk is showing 2 flights.

One just left Ct Croix and another S of Haiti. I can't find data for that one though.

Anyone know?

(Dinner time here - can't post obs)


A think the NOAA plane is taking atmospheric readings. It took off at 1600z I think.
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