CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[canetracker]

84 HR SURFACE
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_slp_084l.gif

84 HR 500 MB
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_084l.gif

Inland over Mexico

[cheezyWXguy]

Double eye?! Latest IR wv

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv-l.jpg

If you mean that little line going thru the center of the eye, that is the remainder of the old eye. , so yes, double eye for now, since the ERC hasnt finished yet

[Steve Cosby]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007081900&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

I was running this model to see what happens to Dean, but look at Florida! That could change the topic of discussion in a hurry.

Interesting but that's the Canadian - not a reliable model based on what I've read from here and from Bastardi.

It also looks suspect from the near explosive development.

[ROCK]

that is one strong ridge....geezz...

[fasterdisaster]

Double eye?! Latest IR wv

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv-l.jpg

That's just the pattern of cloud cover in the eye

[sphelps8681]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007081900&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

I was running this model to see what happens to Dean, but look at Florida! That could change the topic of discussion in a hurry.

Not sure what I am looking at. Could you please explain. Sorry not a weather gal. Just concerned here in Lumberton, Tx.

[marcane_1973]

Dean looks like it slowly weakening on IR and sure has turned into a small compact storm now. Deans eye looks ragged right now as well. Must be going through another ERC. Reminds me of Rita when she did this before landfall and weakened here on out. Too many ERC seem to really hurt a cane. I feel a Cat5 will not happen with Dean. That is just my opinion. I know it does not take long for a well structured storm like this to turn itself around real quick. I just think Dean won't be able to do that until he gets east of Jamaica. Hopefully he will be going down hill here on out for the folks not only in Jamaica but also for the Grand Cayman Islands and the Yucatan. What you guys think?

[gotoman38]

A. 19/15:22:50Z
B. 16 deg 56 min N
075 deg 15 min W
C. NA mb 2455 m
D. 110 kt
E. 301 deg 012 nm
F. 050 deg 132 kt
G. 307 deg 021 nm
H. 928 mb
I. NA C/ 3015 m
J. 16 C/ 3046 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO 10-40
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0904A DEAN OB 15
MAX FL WIND 145 KT NE QUAD 14:10:30 Z
UNABLE TO FIX CENTER DUE TO UNDERCAST

[HouTXmetro]

How is that a strengthening Erin and a ULL aligned N to S over each other wont weaken the Ridge? This goes against conventional wisdom.

[DelrayMorris]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007081900&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

I was running this model to see what happens to Dean, but look at Florida! That could change the topic of discussion in a hurry.

Not sure what I am looking at. Could you please explain. Sorry not a weather gal. Just concerned here in Lumberton, Tx.

When you go to the link, it runs a model (the CMC) that shows a rather significant Low Pressure system (probably a major hurricane) hitting the SE/E Coast of Florida 6 days from now. I'm not an expert either, but that's what I got out of that.

[gotoman38]

000
URNT15 KNHC 191608
AF304 0904A DEAN HDOB 39 20070819
155800 1535N 07407W 6967 03161 0080 +078 +071 202040 040 033 005 00
155830 1535N 07407W 6967 03161 0079 +079 +076 202039 039 032 005 00
155900 1533N 07407W 6968 03162 0079 +079 +079 204036 037 033 004 00
155930 1531N 07406W 6969 03163 0078 +080 +080 202037 038 034 004 00
160000 1530N 07406W 6968 03165 0077 +080 +080 199037 037 034 004 00
160030 1530N 07406W 6968 03165 0080 +078 +078 198037 037 034 004 00
160100 1527N 07406W 6964 03170 0081 +080 +079 199036 037 032 004 00
160130 1526N 07406W 6968 03160 0086 +075 +075 201035 036 032 004 00
160200 1524N 07406W 6969 03162 0088 +075 +075 201033 033 032 004 03
160230 1523N 07405W 6964 03173 0090 +075 +075 197035 036 999 999 03
160300 1523N 07403W 6969 03169 0091 +077 +077 195037 037 999 999 03
160330 1525N 07402W 6968 03169 0086 +079 +079 193037 038 999 999 03
160400 1526N 07404W 6967 03172 0086 +079 +079 192034 035 999 999 03
160430 1526N 07405W 6969 03169 0089 +076 +076 197032 032 999 999 03
160500 1525N 07405W 6969 03170 0092 +075 +075 196034 035 999 999 03
160530 1524N 07403W 6966 03169 0089 +076 +076 194037 038 025 004 03
160600 1526N 07402W 6969 03163 0084 +078 +078 193038 039 028 004 03
160630 1527N 07400W 6969 03163 0078 +083 +076 193040 041 031 005 00
160700 1529N 07359W 6968 03166 0077 +084 +073 190040 041 032 004 00
160730 1531N 07358W 6969 03165 0081 +080 +077 187040 040 031 005 00
$$

[theworld]

Live Video from FOX
http://www.foxnews.com/video2/player06. ... &180&&&new

edit..
this is a good clear stream running, as FOX in NY breaks in from time to time for an update from the crew there in Kingston.

[Sanibel]

My opinion not endorsed by Storm2k:

Double eye?! Latest IR wv

Disagree marcane. A sharpening eye is the sign of strengthening. This could be bad happening right before approach on Jamaica. Hopefully it's a mild one in a warm-top storm.

[aguaviva]

Jamaica trek note: If the eye stays just off shore but the northern eyewall hits the southern coast (much more densely populated than the north) from one end to the other end of that island, the storm may not do as more damage to the north coast but that southern coast will see no mercy, not even the one you get from an eye being on land, or from being at least for a while on the southern side of the storm (relative mercy that is). Hell, it can even continue to intensify, and this is almost a Cat 5 already. On a track like that you can expect at least the type of damage that Hugo caused on the eastern coast of Puerto Rico in 1989, that is, massive. And again, I do not think that Jamaican infrastructure is as good today as Puerto Rico's infrastructure was in 1989.

[JessRomero]

I just watched Fox news and they still have houston in the red i guess to be on the safe side with Dean because of it might develop a different eye hell i don't know lol But my question is to ya'll I am in Port neches and I have rooms reserved in Lufkin can this storm still be unpredictable in its path?? Could it possibly turn our direction still?? I just don't want a rita on our hands here

[cheezyWXguy]

Dean looks like it slowly weakening on IR and sure has turned into a small compact storm now. Deans eye looks ragged right now as well. Must be going through another ERC. Reminds me of Rita when she did this before landfall and weakened here on out. Too many ERC seem to really hurt a cane. I feel a Cat5 will not happen with Dean. That is just my opinion. I know it does not take long for a well structured storm like this to turn itself around real quick. I just think Dean won't be able to do that until he gets east of Jamaica. Hopefully he will be going down hill here on out for the folks not only in Jamaica but also for the Grand Cayman Islands and the Yucatan. What you guys think?

Dean is most certainly not weakening, other than possibly pressure is rising slightly. Nor is it going through another ERC. The reason the eye looks ragged and cloud tops have warmed are all effects of the storm finishing its ERC. Even Derek Ortt, who usually is very conservative on tropical systems, forecasts it to reach 150kt, 170-175mph. We'll see.

[SunnyThoughts]

http://www.nowpublic.com/more-pics-hurricane-dean-seen-space-shuttle-crew-members-1 awesome pic of Dean from space shuttle

[Sanibel]

"Ragged" Uh, the latest loops show the eye getting sharp. Check it out. That is ALWAYS the sign of strengthening. (Not good with an approaching storm)

[gotoman38]

000
URNT12 KNHC 191603 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 19/15:22:50Z
B. 16 deg 56 min N
075 deg 15 min W
C. NA mb 2455 m
D. 110 kt
E. 301 deg 012 nm
F. 050 deg 132 kt
G. 307 deg 021 nm
H. 927 mb
I. NA C/ 3015 m
J. 16 C/ 3046 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0904A DEAN OB 15 CCA
10-40
MAX FL WIND 145 KT NE QUAD 14:10:30 Z
UNABLE TO FIX CENTER DUE TO UNDERCAST
CORRECTED SLP

[canegrl04]

BIG change in projected path since yesterday TWC's latest shows Corpus Christi in the far north path.Looks like they think Dean could take a sharp turn north toward the end.