New storm on the horizon??

[CrazyC83]

There is a ridge over the east coast so unless it moves, it is either going fishing or into Dean's footsteps...

[Dean4Storms]

True, the UKMET and the GFS have been showing weak low pressure and to some little extent a closed low, but the CMC has been bullish for several runs now on developing this and threatening the Bahamas and FL. We will have to keep an eye on this next wave. I wouldn't keep ignoring the CMC just because it has developed phantoms in the past.

[Cape Verde]

I stumbled on this when running some models of Dean and about swallowed my tongue.

Holy smokes. I hope this does not verify. Talk about no warning, no preparation.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Anything that Forms north of the lesser antilles
would likely be a threat to E. Florida and SE FLorida with the
ridge so strong.
Pay close attention folks.

[lencast]

JB hints at a storm on the east coast of Fl end of next week. I wonder if this is what he is talking about??

[DanKellFla]

The CMC has been predicting a lot of storms for Fla so far this season. Not a good track record so far.

[Bgator]

The other global models HINT at something the CMC is picking up, but they dont develop it nearly as much. Usually this means that there might be something there.

[Jinkers]

The CMC has been predicting a lot of storms for Fla so far this season. Not a good track record so far.

Let's hope they're wrong this time too...

[storms in NC]

There is a ridge over the east coast so unless it moves, it is either going fishing or into Dean's footsteps...

True but the ridge will not stay there. It will weak.

[fci]

This has been discussed in another thread for a couple of days now!

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=97194&start=40

And another:
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=97069

So now we can look in 3 places and have 3 different conversations about the same thing!!

[LarryWx]

The CMC is a awful tropical model compared to other global models imho. Whenever it is pretty much on its own, I pretty much disregard it and will do so here.

[Zardoz]

This has been discussed in another thread for a couple of days now!

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=97194&start=40

And another:
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=97069

So now we can look in 3 places and have 3 different conversations about the same thing!!

On many other forums moderators merge threads that are about the same subject. Does that not happen here?

[flwxwatcher]

This has been discussed in another thread for a couple of days now!

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=97194&start=40

And another:
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=97069

So now we can look in 3 places and have 3 different conversations about the same thing!!

On many other forums moderators merge threads that are about the same subject. Does that not happen here?

Right now I am pretty sure their main focus is making sure threads over in the active basin forum stay on topic with Major Hurricane Dean a threat in the Caribbean.

[flwxwatcher]

The CMC is a awful tropical model compared to other global models imho. Whenever it is pretty much on its own, I pretty much disregard it and will do so here.

Larrywx.. I have to agree with you about the CMC overdoing things and developing spurious Lows and I am sure its going way overboard here. but both the UKMET and the GFS have been hinting at something later this week in the bahamas/South Florida area and conditions look to be favorable in this area for development this week just not as quick or as strong as the CMC is showing

[alan1961]

just because it has been unreliable in the past dosent mean its wrong all the time..its been just about spot on with Dean..we'll have to see how it pans out.

[Cape Verde]

It certainly has my attention, and I'll be looking at the other models frequently. Nobody wants this one to verify.

[Robjohn53]

I'd like to see what the pros will say about this, I know there all really busy but hopefully soon they will weigh in on this. If there is any truth to this at all we need to be prepaired and know somthing beings it's possible so soon. Before things were alot differant but now that things are ramping up it dose need to be watched closely. Hope this don't pan out.

Robjohn53

[flwxwatcher]

I'd like to see what the pros will say about this, I know there all really busy but hopefully soon they will weigh in on this. If there is any truth to this at all we need to be prepaired and know somthing beings it's possible so soon. Before things were alot differant but now that things are ramping up it dose need to be watched closely. Hope this don't pan out.

Robjohn53

Here is a Tidbit from Joe Bastardi's mid-day update today.

Tropics still alive and kicking, to be discussed later. Next threat of storm development southwest atlantic later this week

[Vigilant]

The wave now has a low. TWD 2:00 p.m.

TROPICAL WAVES...
THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ALONG 46W IS ADJUSTED
AHEAD BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE DATA AND SSMI-DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER. THIS IS A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE TILTED ALONG
20N49W 15N52W 8N54W. A 101O MB SFC LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 11N53W. CU LINES DEFINE THE EXPOSED CENTER OF THE LOW.
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND ON THE
NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 46W-50W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM WEST OF THE LOW. THIS TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO THE
NE CARIBBEAN MON.

[jhamps10]

The wave now has a low. TWD 2:00 p.m.

TROPICAL WAVES...
THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ALONG 46W IS ADJUSTED
AHEAD BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE DATA AND SSMI-DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER. THIS IS A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE TILTED ALONG
20N49W 15N52W 8N54W. A 101O MB SFC LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 11N53W. CU LINES DEFINE THE EXPOSED CENTER OF THE LOW.
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND ON THE
NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 46W-50W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM WEST OF THE LOW. THIS TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO THE
NE CARIBBEAN MON.

If they have that sfc low there, it's going to crash into South America it looks like, however It needs to be watched very closely. Question, wasn't dean somewhere along that 10-12/50-55 area when it started to develop real quickly?

as a matter of fact, the area around 20/48 looks to be the best organization wise that is.


I really wish we would get some pro met help on this, as it looks to be in a favorable area, but TPC doesn't think so.