CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

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txwatcher91
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (2 PM page 258) Discussions, Analysis

#9481 Postby txwatcher91 » Sun Aug 19, 2007 1:21 pm

Sanibel wrote:144KTS Flight Level = around 150mph surface

Dean is changing gears with a track across very warm SST's west of Jamaica. I expect category 5 and so does NHC.


This chart shows that Dean is getting very close to significantly higher TCHP. This is not good news for Jamaica.
Image
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Re: HURRICANE DEAN - Threat Area - Jamaica, Caymans, Hispanola

#9482 Postby NCSUwpack » Sun Aug 19, 2007 1:22 pm

Crap i'm scared to death now... I was just on the phone again with my sister and all the sudden no more... I tried calling back and I can't get through. Before cutting off she said it was horrible and the winds broke dads weather station.... I'll keep trying I pray they are okay. God i'm scared.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (2 PM page 258) Discussions, Analysis

#9483 Postby baitism » Sun Aug 19, 2007 1:22 pm

tolakram wrote:Something interesting is happening to the eye.


Could be wrong, but I think the outer eyewall is starting to strengthen as the inner one erodes...
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HURRICANE DEAN - Threat Area - Jamaica, Caymans, Hispanola

#9484 Postby Lost in Belize » Sun Aug 19, 2007 1:22 pm

Thanks Stephanie. I will be monitoring closely and will certainly be asking advice.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (2 PM page 258) Discussions, Analysis

#9485 Postby txwatcher91 » Sun Aug 19, 2007 1:22 pm

:uarrow: I agree.
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Re: HURRICANE DEAN - Threat Area - Jamaica, Caymans, Hispanola

#9486 Postby Stephanie » Sun Aug 19, 2007 1:23 pm

All of our prayers are with the citizens of Jamaica.

I hope that your sister is finding secure shelter NOW.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (2 PM page 258) Discussions, Analysis

#9487 Postby baitism » Sun Aug 19, 2007 1:25 pm

I also seem to notice a NW wobble. Normally, I would not care. But, this close to land it really matters.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (2 PM page 258) Discussions, Analysis

#9488 Postby Innotech » Sun Aug 19, 2007 1:27 pm

baitism wrote:Got this off a Jamaican news website:

Up to 53 stranded on Pedro Cays

There are reports that at least 53 persons are now stranded on the Pedro Cays.
According to Chairman of the Jamaica Fishermen Cooperation Havelan Honeygan the fishermen have refused to evacuate the Pedro Cays.
In the meantime, Mr. Honeygan says the Jamaica Coast Guard is asking the stranded fishermen to break off the locks to the JDF base and to use that facility.



Ok....now I dont feel sorry for them.


yeah just heard that report on the radio station. Its providing very good information. I love listening to these stations at times like this to see how places deal with hurricanes.
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Re: HURRICANE DEAN - Threat Area - Jamaica, Caymans, Hispanola

#9489 Postby Janie2006 » Sun Aug 19, 2007 1:29 pm

No worries, NCSU. They are in a safe place. It's natural to be scared. It's to be expected that wind gusts will disable most home wx stations at some point. Winds may have also knocked out cellphone towers or telephone lines. We're here for you.
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Re:

#9490 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 19, 2007 1:30 pm

Lost in Belize wrote:It was fantastic to have happened on to this great site. Thanks for the great information! Us non-US locations appreciate the attention given to our plight, even as most media is biased toward US threats.

Update from Belize: The island of Ambergris caye which is just south of Mexican territoriy is the most threatened. After a direct hit by Keith in 2000, the 10,000 residents of that island and 5,000 or so on Caye Caulker just 10 miles to the south are taking no chances. Nat'l Emergency Management Org (NEMO) has called for evacuation of tourists from the islands, and many residents are voluntarily evacuating early. Most people are focusing on securing boats and water assets at this early stage. There is fear that the circulation may come from the back of the island if the storm hits the Northern Yucatan (Keith's circulation hit the western part of the island after most boat owners had put their boats in ther lee for shelter, destroying hundreds of boats) so most people are moving the boats to the mainland. Belize City is rather quiet, some people are boarding up, but most are on a wait-see mode. The movement of the track somewhat south on the latest advisory is making many nervous, and I expect that tomorrow will be very active with stocking of supplies, boarding up, and movement inland. Belize City is low lying, but historically storm surges have been low because of the 180 mile barrier reef and hundreds of barrier islands dotting the shallow coastline. Belize City has not had a direct hit since Hurricane Hattie in 1961 which all but devastated the city.


First welcome to storm2k.The thread was moved to this one as is about the Yucatan Peninsula.Be safe there and my prayers go to you and your family.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (2 PM page 258) Discussions, Analysis

#9491 Postby Sanibel » Sun Aug 19, 2007 1:32 pm

Outer eye visible on that frame above.

Pedro Cays should be just south of southern eyewall. (Those guys are in for a real ride)
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#9492 Postby artist » Sun Aug 19, 2007 1:35 pm

they were prepared NCSU and it is normal to lose communications unfortunately. A tower probably went down. Keep your chin up. I know you are scared, but have faith they are fine. I think after the storm the Red Cross will have a way for you to get a message to them if communications are still out.
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Re: HURRICANE DEAN - Threat Area - Jamaica, Caymans, Hispanola

#9493 Postby artist » Sun Aug 19, 2007 1:38 pm

If you were talking to them on a land line I just heard all the power was just now turned off. They kept it up longer than anticipated. That could be why also.
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#9494 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Aug 19, 2007 1:38 pm

very bad news

Here is the latest TMI pass

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

an least a very large outer eyewall and if the EWRC completes 100%, that will be the eyewall
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#9495 Postby NCSUwpack » Sun Aug 19, 2007 1:39 pm

Thanks everyone for the support. I think this site is going to be my new home! Great information and more importantly awesome people!

Wow Power 106 power going out... She starts talking to Dean saying you're not going to stop us talking to everyone about what you're doing to us. lol.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (2 PM page 258) Discussions, Analysis

#9496 Postby gotoman38 » Sun Aug 19, 2007 1:41 pm

From this plot of VDMs and significant winds in the last recon - looks like the strongest winds will likely hit Jamaica's coast S of Kingston and Spanish Town head on.

Image
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#9497 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 19, 2007 1:42 pm

INCREDIBLE:
Image
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (2 PM page 258) Discussions, Analysis

#9498 Postby TampaFl » Sun Aug 19, 2007 1:43 pm

Image
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Re: HURRICANE DEAN - Threat Area - Jamaica, Caymans, Hispanola

#9499 Postby Janie2006 » Sun Aug 19, 2007 1:44 pm

Power 106 is still up, but getting interference with the signal.
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#9500 Postby artist » Sun Aug 19, 2007 1:44 pm

If you refresh your page you might get it back. Just keep trying, the radio page.
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