New storm on the horizon??

[jhamps10]

here's Jeff Masters' blog on this potential

After Dean, what next?
There is an area of disturbed weather that has formed off the northeast coast of South America, 400 miles southest of Barbados. Wind shear is 20-25 knots in this region, and will stay too high to allow develoment for at least the next two days. None of the reliable computer models are suggesting anything will develop over the coming week. The ITCZ region between Africa and the Lesser Antilles is relatively quiet.

[flwxwatcher]

NOGAPS trying to develope something now as well.. Lets see what if anything happens in the SW Atlantic this week.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[jhamps10]

NOGAPS trying to develope something now as well.. Lets see what if anything happens in the SW Atlantic this week.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

I don't see anything there, other than dean.

[fci]

NOGAPS trying to develope something now as well.. Lets see what if anything happens in the SW Atlantic this week.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

Where do you see anything on NOGAPS?
I see nothing on ANY model except the CMC

[Hurricaneman]

NOGAPS trying to develope something now as well.. Lets see what if anything happens in the SW Atlantic this week.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

I don't see anything there, other than dean.

The only other thing I see on that map is a trough of low pressure

[flwxwatcher]

12z EURO developes a weak low East of Florida and moves it across Florida and into the Gulf.. lets see if any of this pans out.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7081912!!/

[jhamps10]

12z EURO developes a weak low East of Florida and moves it across Florida and into the Gulf.. lets see if any of this pans out.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7081912!!/

Looks more like a ULL than a possible storm, but at least it shows something.

[rockyman]

the NOGAPS does show a low pressure area moving from the Atlantic and then up the SE coast...but the resolution is so coarse that it's impossible to tell if the low is closed off...just because there is no "circle" does not mean that there is no surface low....

The Euro's low is not an upper level low...the model map linked above is for sea level pressure...the Euro's upper level model maps are not public (I think)

So...we have NOGAPS, CMC, and the Euro showing something brewing and moving toward Florida

[jhamps10]

naked surface low at the 10/50 that TPC was talking about, however I am now noticing something new at 10/45 developing, looks like some rotation in that too. Be advised, GFS last night had something forming by midnight at 10/40.

[RL3AO]

Being mentioned in the TWO is the first step.

[jhamps10]

guys our low is starting to show signs of convection now. Also we have not 1, not 2 but 3 distinct areas of convection, 1 at 10/45, another one at 21/55, and our surface low at 11/56.


I'll be honest the area at 10/45 looks to be the best looking area of all of them right now.

[SeaBrz_FL]

This has been discussed in another thread for a couple of days now!

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=97194&start=40

And another:
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=97069

So now we can look in 3 places and have 3 different conversations about the same thing!!

Since I'm the original poster, I would like to respond, especially since I detest multiple threads on the same topic.

The two previous threads -- "New storm on the horizon??" and "Look at what's behind Dean" -- had posts about this Carib wave, but there was more discussion about the next CV wave coming off of Africa.

I also mentioned, in my first post, that Vortex had posted about this specific wave in "a couple other threads", but there was no response.

I don't feel that creating a new topic about a specific tropical situation was wrong, and two pages of responses suggests the same.

[Frank2]

Both the CMC and JP (the person, not a computer program) have had poor track records...

Right now the tropics are quiet - aside from Dean...

[CourierPR]

Actually, the area at 20 degrees N and 50-55 degrees W is the area to watch, in my opinion. It will move west and get under the ridge and then look for things to happen.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 192129
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DEAN...CENTERED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN...LOCATED ABOUT 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF TULSA
OKLAHOMA.

THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED 300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
BARBADOS IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE
LOW NEAR BARBADOS APPEARS UNLIKELY. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TODAY...HOWEVER...A FEW
HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB



The northern part is the one that has a better chance.

[RL3AO]

Code Blue.

[Meso]

The models showed some scary stuff in their forecasts.I`m too tired to make sure which did what.. But if this the area that the CMC makes into a FL landfalling cane? Interesting stuff none the less. Ukmet also showed hints at something forming.

[Cyclone1]

Felix on the horizon, eh? Looks like this one could be a problem for Florida. A few days after school starts, too. I seem to remember that happening about, say, 3 years ago.

[CrazyC83]

If this becomes Felix, I would guess it would basically follow Dean, maybe a bit to the north of Dean's path.

Anyway, this should be called 92L soon...

[EDR1222]

Looks like the NHC is mentioning the area NE of the Leeward Islands in their 5 pm tropical weather outlooks. Something to keep an eye on. It looks to be in an area that, if it were to form and continue move WNW, it might be something for the mid atlantic coast to keep an eye on......depending on the ridge-trough strength and position. Still to early to tell however.

From the NHC 5 pm Outlook:

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TODAY...HOWEVER...A FEW
HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.