CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The eye wall is much more thick and the area of strong ways is huge to the north of the eye. At least 60-70 miles out...This is looking to be way worst then what Ivan did to Jamica. Ivan was not as big as it crossed under it, and if I remember right it did not come as close.

[Aquawind]

How big is Dean's eye?

Big ~20-40 miles wide. Recon will tell us soon.

[cycloneye]

283
WHXX04 KWBC 192327
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE DEAN 04L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 19

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.1 76.0 280./17.1
6 17.0 77.8 266./17.0
12 16.9 79.2 267./13.7
18 17.2 80.9 280./16.4
24 17.7 82.9 283./19.3
30 17.9 84.8 278./18.3
36 18.1 86.7 274./17.9
42 18.4 88.4 282./17.0
48 18.8 90.2 282./16.9
54 19.2 91.8 284./15.4
60 19.4 93.5 277./16.8
66 19.8 95.2 281./16.6
72 19.3 96.6 249./13.3
78 19.0 98.7 263./20.5
84 19.2 101.1 274./23.0
90 19.5 103.1 281./19.2
96 21.0 105.2 304./24.4
102 22.0 105.9 326./11.6
108 23.1 106.9 318./14.6
114 24.4 107.8 327./15.0
120 25.6 108.6 325./14.6
126 27.0 109.5 329./16.2


For those who still are following GFDL going to Mexico,here is the 18z run.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

How big is Dean's eye?

I think 23 nmi for the clear inner eye you see on the satellite. With 40 nmi wide the outter eye.

[Coredesat]

Storm2K disclaimer: The following post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

CTCC disclaimer: These products are unofficial and are not certified by any Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre, Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre, or any official forecasting agency and may be subject to large errors. Refer to their products for official updates.

----------------

Intense Hurricane Dean (04L)
Tropical Cyclone Warning - Atlantic
Forecast #5 - 2300 UTC 19 August 2007

...Dean regaining strength as it skirts the southern Jamaica coast...

Estimated Position: 17.5°N 77.4°W (confidence good)
Est. Maximum Sustained Winds: 125 knots (145 mph)
Est. Minimum Pressure: 926 hPa
Movement: WNW at 17 knots

DISCUSSION

Dean (04L) has completed its eyewall replacement cycle and looks to be intensifying as it passes south of Jamaica. Very few weather stations in Jamaica are reporting, but one station near Kingston reported a sustained wind of 81 mph. Another station 50 miles west of Kingston reported a sustained wind of 114 mph. Dean's overall appearance has changed little in the past 12 hours; the central dense overcast is still symmetric about a fairly small but not pinhole eye. Outflow is good in all quadrants and convection within the northern eyewall has cooled in response to land interaction. RAMMB wind plots indicate that land interaction is weakening areas within the outer bands of the storm but is otherwise not causing Dean to weaken substantially. Dvorak estimates are T6.0/6.5 from SAB and T6.0/6.0 from TAFB; the intensity is increased to 125 kt given the improved structure in all other areas of the system.

The forecast track reasoning is unchanged from the previous forecasts. Dean should move away from Jamaica in the next 12 hours and begin to restrengthen, and it may attain Category 5 intensity prior to making landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula just after 48 hours.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

Init...17.5°N 77.4°W...125 kt
12 hr...17.1°N 79.9°W...130 kt
24 hr...18.6°N 82.2°W...135 kt
36 hr...19.1°N 84.6°W...140 kt
48 hr...19.7°N 86.9°W...140 kt
72 hr...21.0°N 91.5°W...75 kt

[jabman98]

again if this massive high is buildng in why are the temps here in houston at least supposed to be in the low 90s which is normal and not in the 100's as they were when the high was over us

Higher dewpoints keeping temperatures down? I have no idea, not that it's really relevant to Dean.

well if High pressure = above avg temps and those arnt there that doesnt add up to me
if the high isnt as strong there that does affect dean

im no pro and i may be missing something but that doesnt add up all they way to me

Wondering the same thing. They're forecasting 40% chance of rain Tue-Thur in Houston, with temps around 90 - which is waaay lower than the highs in the high 90's we had with that high sitting over us a week ago or so. Where does that rain come from? The low that's moving across? If so, shouldn't that affect Dean, or will the ULL and Dean part ways at that point?

Local Channel 2 mets put "Dean?" in the Wed/Thur (or was it Thur/Fri?) forecast as late as this morning. If Dean is way down in southern Mexico, we won't be getting much from him up this far. Maybe Galveston will have a few waves, but that should be about it.

[kozzieman]

How does that compare to the size of Katrina's eye when Katrina made landfall in my neck of the woods almost 2 years ago? Was Katrina's eye larger?

[cheezyWXguy]

growing of the hurrican seen here in the last pictures to

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

Oh my! that is just HUGE.

It is no bigger than what it was before...if anything, the core has slightly shrunk, youre just seeing an illusion from the sun setting on the hurricane. I think Dean looks okay for a category 4 hurricane..not overly impressed. Despite the fact that Dean has been in an ERC for more than a day and the eye still hasnt fully cleared out or become fully circular is beyond me. On top of that im surprised that a category 4 hurricane can be so strong with cloud tops being abnormally warm. Usually witha 145mph+ storm the red on avn loops go all the way around the eye. This storm has a bit of work to do if it wants to reach category 5 strength. Either way, Jamaica really seems to be getting pounded. With major hurricane winds going inland half way across the island, the wind field has likely expanded and Dean will probably begin to restrengthen before dawn tomorrow.

[shelby]

Dr Neil Frank on 11 was still talking about the ULL moving needing to continue to move west

[jaxfladude]

Deleted.....found out why.....

[HouTXmetro]

Dr Neil Frank on 11 was still talking about the ULL moving needing to continue to move west

As of right now it is not moving. However these things can turn on the burners quickly and exit the area. Something to watch though. In addition the surface High is huggin the coast and poised to enter the BOC.

[tropicwatch]

729
URNT15 KNHC 192344
AF304 1104A DEAN HDOB 07 20070819
233430 1723N 06921W 3989 07626 0424 -170 -202 077016 016 018 000 00
233500 1723N 06923W 3989 07627 0425 -170 -201 071016 016 014 000 00
233530 1722N 06926W 3989 07627 0426 -170 -199 072016 016 016 000 00
233600 1722N 06929W 3988 07629 0426 -175 -192 071017 018 016 000 00
233630 1722N 06932W 3990 07627 0426 -175 -192 074018 019 014 000 00
233700 1722N 06935W 3990 07627 0427 -170 -200 080018 019 018 000 00
233730 1721N 06938W 3989 07629 0427 -165 -202 079018 019 017 000 00
233800 1721N 06941W 3989 07628 0426 -166 -206 077019 019 013 000 00
233830 1721N 06944W 3989 07631 0428 -170 -204 077019 019 010 000 00
233900 1721N 06947W 3990 07627 0427 -170 -206 075022 022 015 000 00
233930 1720N 06950W 3988 07631 0427 -170 -216 080021 021 016 000 00
234000 1720N 06953W 3990 07628 0429 -170 -227 086020 021 016 000 00
234030 1720N 06956W 3988 07635 0430 -168 -221 087019 019 014 000 00
234100 1720N 06959W 3988 07637 0431 -165 -225 087018 019 016 000 00
234130 1720N 07001W 3989 07633 0431 -165 -215 085017 017 014 000 00
234200 1719N 07004W 3988 07635 0431 -165 -208 086017 017 013 000 00
234230 1719N 07007W 3989 07634 0432 -165 -203 083016 016 013 000 00
234300 1719N 07010W 3989 07634 0432 -161 -205 086016 016 010 000 00
234330 1719N 07013W 3990 07632 0432 -163 -204 081017 017 014 000 00
234400 1718N 07016W 3989 07633 0432 -163 -204 082017 017 014 000 00
$$

[philnyc]

growing of the hurrican seen here in the last pictures to

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

Oh my! that is just HUGE.

It is no bigger than what it was before...if anything, the core has slightly shrunk, youre just seeing an illusion from the sun setting on the hurricane. I think Dean looks okay for a category 4 hurricane..not overly impressed. Despite the fact that Dean has been in an ERC for more than a day and the eye still hasnt fully cleared out or become fully circular is beyond me. On top of that im surprised that a category 4 hurricane can be so strong with cloud tops being abnormally warm. Usually witha 145mph+ storm the red on avn loops go all the way around the eye. This storm has a bit of work to do if it wants to reach category 5 strength. Either way, Jamaica really seems to be getting pounded. With major hurricane winds going inland half way across the island, the wind field has likely expanded and Dean will probably begin to restrengthen before dawn tomorrow.

I gotta agree with you cheesy. Although sometimes this happens, where the cloud tops are not as cold as you'd expect, yet the intensity is quite high. I've seen it before, but not sure why this occurs. I also would say that it has a better chance of reaching cat 5 since the eye has missed Jamaica.

Oh, yes, and actually the eye looked spectacular today. You could see the multiple mesovortices in the center quite well. That only happens in the most intense hurricanes.

[amawea]

Sau27, I can give you two reasons the highs won't be as high as they were when the High pressure was over you. 1. And probably the most important, Errin just gave you a lot of rain. There is a lot of moisture in the ground and this does keep highs temps down by evaporative cooling a few degrees.
2. We are getting later in the year and the angle of the sun is longer now. We have pretty much seen the highest temps that we will see this year.
JMHO, along with some weather knowledge.

[cycloneye]

WTNT34 KNHC 192348
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAMAICA
AS THE EYE OF DEAN PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH...
...OUTER RAIN BANDS AFFECTING HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA...

AT 8 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/MEXICO
BORDER...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY
SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN JAMAICA
SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. PREPARATIONS IN THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD
TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CHETUMAL TO SAN FELIPE ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...
115 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 265
MILES...425 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. A MOTION
BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...
AND JUST SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN
MAJOR HURRICANES AND ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DEAN
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. AN OBSERVATION OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 MPH WAS
REPORTED FROM KINGSTON JAMAICA...AND AN UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATION OF
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 MPH WAS REPORTED FROM LIONEL TOWN JAMAICA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
HAM RADIO REPORTS INDICATE FLOODED STREETS IN KINGSTON JAMAICA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES.
EASTERN CUBA COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...17.5 N...77.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/ROBERTS

[cycloneye]

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...
115 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 265
MILES...425 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. A MOTION
BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...
AND JUST SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN
MAJOR HURRICANES AND ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DEAN
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON MONDAY.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I expect all area's as far inland as Kingstan to have near or over Major one minute winds. That is in general area for them across the southern part of the island. Which means Rita like damage. Remember those photo's of southwestern LA? That is what kind of damage I think has happen. I also feel that 130-140 mph winds have hit the southern parts,. This is just what I think. Half the island likely has been hit with 80-90 mph winds+.

Yes since it missed hitting land at least the core of the system I do expect this thing to bomb into a cat5 once into the western Caribbean.

[mutley]

Dr Neil Frank on 11 was still talking about the ULL moving needing to continue to move west

Someone up thread, said that the ULL wasn't relevant to Dean. I can understand it not being the current major factor, but it sure seems that it might be relevant.

[cycloneye]

8 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/MEXICO
BORDER...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY
SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER.

El gobierno de Belize tiene ahora una vigilancia de Huracan desde la ciudad de Belize hasta la frontera con Mejico.Tambien tiene una vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical desde el sur de la ciudad de Belize hasta la frontera con Guatemala.

[HouTXmetro]

Dr Neil Frank on 11 was still talking about the ULL moving needing to continue to move west

Someone up thread, said that the ULL wasn't relevant to Dean. I can understand it not being the current major factor, but it sure seems that it might be relevant.

I think the GFS accurately predicts a breif stall then the ULL books it out the picture.