CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[carversteve]

i am just a weather nut but need to know somthing....dean seems to being wnw or nw...if it continues this way would it not strike the yucatan penn. a little further north? and will it catch the low in the gulf and if it does won't it pull it further north..Thanks

[Stratosphere747]

The WSW movement of the latest runs of the GFDL and GFS are a bit strange... Can't dispute how the GFS has handled Dean though.

[weatherman21]

Just sat down at the computer and noticed the recent high wind reports coming out of the MKJP station on the SE portion of Jamaica. I have the following screen captures showing the recent wind plots taken from that station. It appears the winds began to increase at 21Z/5pm EDT, reaching 70 knots and then increased further to 100 knots by the 22Z report. The 23Z report from the station showed a continued 100 knot wind speed. The wind direction remained consistant from 22Z to 23Z.

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl042007.html

Grand Cayman should be prepared for the possibility of category 5 winds tomorrow morning

[wsquared77]

Power 106 (I think-I'm listening on http://www.suncam.tv) is talking to a 7 year old on the phone. You can here the wind howling behind her... She says that she's not feeling afraid though.

[RL3AO]

Looks like the eye is losing definition on that last pic.

[wxmann_91]

From weatherman21's images, the eye seems to have cooled again, perhaps some land interaction hurting it.

Also, some info, the Kingston METAR is located at the airport, which is just offshore. This means that the METAR station is probably experiencing stronger winds than at downtown Kingston due to less friction over water.

[jaxfladude]

Is Dean being affected by Island Interaction namely the higher mountains of Jamaica?

[MGC]

The eye does look a bit ragged on the north side, likely due to interaction with Jamiaca. Maybe some downsloap effect coming off the mountains. A large area of cold cloudtops is growing offshore and should start wraping around the eye....MGC

[Sanibel]

Kingston Observation:

118mph - sustained

Gust - 138mph!


Good category 3 in town. Hurricane fury.

I think the 145 was an estimate. From its shape Dean was probably intensifying as it passed Jamaica.

[WindRunner]

URNT15 KNHC 200005
AF304 1104A DEAN HDOB 09 20070820
235430 1717N 07118W 3990 07628 0428 -164 -173 094023 024 018 000 00
235500 1717N 07120W 3989 07632 0429 -160 -178 097021 023 017 000 00
235530 1717N 07123W 3989 07633 0431 -160 -170 098018 018 018 000 00
235600 1718N 07126W 3989 07634 0432 -160 -170 103017 018 010 000 00
235630 1718N 07129W 3989 07633 0431 -158 -172 100019 020 010 000 00
235700 1718N 07132W 3990 07628 0428 -156 -174 101020 021 014 000 00
235730 1718N 07135W 3990 07627 0427 -159 -172 103019 020 027 000 00
235800 1719N 07138W 3990 07626 0426 -156 -169 101019 020 018 001 00
235830 1719N 07141W 3990 07627 0426 -159 -159 102018 020 018 000 03
235900 1719N 07144W 3993 07631 0435 -157 -157 097015 017 025 002 03
235930 1719N 07147W 3991 07623 0428 -157 -157 086019 020 015 046 00
000000 1719N 07150W 3994 07622 0430 -151 -151 100018 019 016 002 00
000030 1718N 07153W 3993 07623 0428 -155 -155 112021 023 004 001 00
000100 1718N 07156W 3992 07627 0429 -153 -153 122026 029 006 003 00
000130 1718N 07159W 3994 07623 0431 -150 -150 125028 031 009 003 03
000200 1718N 07201W 3995 07628 0434 -153 -153 123016 022 014 005 05
000230 1717N 07204W 3995 07626 0433 -155 -155 096009 010 017 005 01
000300 1716N 07207W 3998 07617 0431 -154 -154 091011 012 014 004 00
000330 1715N 07210W 3994 07621 0430 -153 -153 100013 014 017 001 00
000400 1715N 07213W 3993 07626 0429 -156 -156 107019 022 021 005 00

Well, if no one starts posting in the next 30 mins, I guess I can . . . at least for a while.

[Derek Ortt]

I think the sustained cat 3 was an estimate. They may have lost power at their recording station and received higher winds after their recorded 70KT sustained

[canetracker]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfdl/2007081918-dean04l/slp1.png
You have to look hard to see Jamaica under Dean in this image, but, the 18z GFDL run, at 6 hours into it, is already way to south. The actual location is almost a degree more north.

[Derek Ortt]

yeah... that GFDL is quite the strange one. Not really close at the moment... maybe extrap its track 1.5 degrees north

[tropicsPR]

I found this site about the Grand Cayman's history with tropical systems. Interesting information:

http://www.hurricanecity.com/city/caymanislands.htm

[sevenleft]

Those METARs cant be trusted at all...

[tropicwatch]

972
URNT15 KNHC 200014
AF304 1104A DEAN HDOB 10 20070820
000430 1714N 07215W 3994 07621 0429 -155 -155 085019 020 022 004 00
000500 1713N 07218W 3995 07617 0428 -158 -158 089015 020 019 003 03
000530 1714N 07221W 3996 07618 0429 -158 -158 117017 018 020 001 03
000600 1714N 07224W 3991 07632 0431 -161 -161 098014 015 019 000 00
000630 1715N 07227W 3995 07620 0429 -158 -158 112016 017 021 001 00
000700 1716N 07230W 3995 07620 0429 -154 -154 127018 019 022 001 00
000730 1717N 07233W 3993 07627 0430 -152 -169 148019 020 024 002 00
000800 1717N 07235W 3994 07622 0430 -159 -159 151020 021 027 000 00
000830 1718N 07238W 3995 07623 0415 -152 -162 134018 019 027 000 03
000900 1720N 07240W 3992 07627 0430 -155 -166 148018 020 028 001 03
000930 1722N 07242W 3995 07628 0435 -151 -151 143019 029 041 044 03
001000 1725N 07243W 4020 07576 0431 -154 -154 148021 026 043 044 03
001030 1727N 07244W 3993 07621 0426 -155 -161 141019 020 029 001 00
001100 1729N 07246W 4000 07609 0425 -151 -168 154018 019 017 002 00
001130 1731N 07247W 3995 07616 0425 -150 -170 159018 019 012 002 03
001200 1732N 07249W 3997 07612 0424 -146 -180 158017 019 001 002 03
001230 1732N 07251W 3996 07611 0422 -145 -223 165016 017 019 001 00
001300 1732N 07253W 3992 07618 0422 -145 -227 168017 017 018 001 00
001330 1731N 07255W 3996 07611 0421 -147 -236 174017 018 014 002 00
001400 1731N 07257W 3994 07615 0421 -150 -206 166018 020 017 000 00
$$

Close to Haiti winds shifting towards the south.

[hiflyer]

This has got to be throwing a huge amount of rainfall against the south side of the mountains that form the spine....and also I would suspect very high surf and tides. What wind damage does not do to the south half water may do. That may well be the difference when it goes by Cayman...no hills to squeeze moisture out which will leave it a fairly well 'juiced' storm for the Yucatan.

[PhillyWX]

TV Imagery from Hurricane Dean as it hits Jamaica

5 PM ET: http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com ... -dean.html

6 PM ET: http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com ... ean-2.html

7 PM ET: http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com ... ean-3.html

[tolakram]