New storm on the horizon??

[RL3AO]

I'm guessing the ridge will pretty much force it west?

[Agua]

ABNT20 KNHC 192129
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DEAN...CENTERED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN...LOCATED ABOUT 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF TULSA
OKLAHOMA.

THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED 300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
BARBADOS IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE
LOW NEAR BARBADOS APPEARS UNLIKELY. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TODAY... HOWEVER...A FEW
HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB



The northern part is the one that has a better chance.

Is a portion of the TWO omitted? As written, it makes no sense.

[Edited to include the following:] Okay, I get what Knabb's trying to communicate. These guys need to learn how to use punctuation rather than relying on ellipses all the time.

[RL3AO]

Is a portion of the TWO omitted? As written, it makes no sense.

[Edited to include the following:] Okay, I get what Knabb's trying to communicate. These guys need to learn how to use punctuation rather than relying on ellipses all the time.

I always use ellipses now...I forget how to use things like commas.

[HurricaneRobert]

I'm guessing the ridge will pretty much force it west?

It looks like it's going west. There may not be much development before it reaches the EPac.

[bosag]

I dont remember which storm it was,but it wasnt that long ago, Palm Beach County schools were out for 2 weeks at the beginning of the school year. Was it Wilma maybe?

Barb

[Cyclone1]

I dont remember which storm it was,but it wasnt that long ago, Palm Beach County schools were out for 2 weeks at the beginning of the school year. Was it Wilma maybe?

Barb

Probably Charley, it hit within four days of the beginning of school.

[gatorcane]

looks like Florida may have to watch this system with the ridge above it....

[wzrgirl1]

I dont remember which storm it was,but it wasnt that long ago, Palm Beach County schools were out for 2 weeks at the beginning of the school year. Was it Wilma maybe?

Barb

jeanne and frances perhaps?

[windycity]

In 2004 and 2005, P.B county schools lost 2 weeks to Francis, Jeanne, then Wilma. It was a bummer, i'm a teacher and it really screwed us up. Lost time total,6 weeks.

[wzrgirl1]

In 2004 and 2005, P.B county schools lost 2 weeks to Francis, Jeanne, then Wilma. It was a bummer, i'm a teacher and it really screwed us up. Lost time total,6 weeks.

i am a teacher too....in dade county....we still got paid though....you didn't?

[Bgator]

Last year i lost 2 weeks of school in Miami-Dade County. It took many holidays away it was not fun.

[wsquared77]

Last year i lost 2 weeks of school in Miami-Dade County. It took many holidays away it was not fun.

2005/2006 school year lost 2 weeks due to Katrina and Wilma. Thought it was great until they took away all of our teacher work days!

[gatorcane]

Florida needs to monitor the progress of the system as it moves WNW...

[Lifesgud2]

Florida needs to monitor the progress of the system as it moves WNW...

Just like you said last week regarding Dean right????

You really have to be careful with your predictions bro.

[Bgator]

Florida needs to monitor the progress of the system as it moves WNW...

Just like you said last week regarding Dean right????

You really have to be careful with your predictions bro.

He never said that it is hitting Florida as anything. He just said monitor the progress of it which i AGREE with.

[bucman1]

I believe what he said was fine and accurate-anytime we have a possible disturbance in the Atlantic the Florida region needs to keep an eye out.

**Also its a very crucial time of the year to stop knit picking and work together to get out the most accurate and reliable info.

[mel38]

this is from nws melbourne forecast;http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDMLB&max=10

FRI-SUN...HEMISPHERIC MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT APPROACH/PASSAGE
OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR/SOUTH OF CWA. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. WINDS LIKELY TO BACK TO NE AHEAD OF WAVE AXIS FRIDAY THEN
BECOME SE SAT/SUN. WILL TREND POPS UPWARD TO 30 PERCENT FRI AND 40
PERCENT FOR THE WEEKEND AREA WIDE UNTIL EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. LITTLE CHANCE IN TEMP PATTERN
FRI-SUN...HEMISPHERIC MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT APPROACH/PASSAGE
OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR/SOUTH OF CWA. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. WINDS LIKELY TO BACK TO NE AHEAD OF WAVE AXIS FRIDAY THEN
BECOME SE SAT/SUN. WILL TREND POPS UPWARD TO 30 PERCENT FRI AND 40
PERCENT FOR THE WEEKEND AREA WIDE UNTIL EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. LITTLE CHANCE IN TEMP PATTERN

[windstorm99]

folks along the eastcoast should moniter the situation of the northern islands as conditions will become very favorable as high pressure sets in.Nothing at the moment to get worried about but just pointing out the fact that something may try to pop up in that region.

[gatorcane]

I believe what he said was fine and accurate-anytime we have a possible disturbance in the Atlantic the Florida region needs to keep an eye out.

**Also its a very crucial time of the year to stop knit picking and work together to get out the most accurate and reliable info.

thanks for the support guys. I will admit I underestimated the ridge that kept Dean west. Indeed even the NHC underestimated it and have kept adjusting the track more left. A possible South Texas strike looks less likely as Dean looks to be on a crash course into central America....

But -- its that same ridge that kept Dean away from the US may allow this new system to get close....and remember CMC accurately predicted Katrina when Katrina was forming where this system is forming..

[stpeteweathergal]

From today's AFD out of Tampa Bay Ruskin FL.

WE MAY SEE THE EFFECTS OF A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY...BUT DON`T EXPECT
TO SEE MORE THAN PERHAPS NORMAL AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES. THE GFS
BRINGS DRY AIR BACK IN AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND