New storm on the horizon??

[flwxwatcher]

You can see the wave NE of the Leeward Islands nicely in this loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[Robjohn53]

There is nothing wrong with posting the facts and i agree with this, we don't know for sure but there is enough to warrent keeping an eye on this. Cmc is on it but there are other things as well that stand out along with it. So it cannot in any way hurt to watch it. Besides it's what we all do anyway is watch for anything that pops up. Just my opinion.

Robjohn53

[gatorcane]

Here is the latest satellite pic of our new threat. We should not allow Dean to capture all of our attention as this one looks to be becoming somewhat better organized tonight. You will notice the convection is expanding and sustaining and there is a High pressure system building over it....as it moves WNW to W at 15 to 20 mph. It's about 800 miles ESE of SE Florida at this point.

[gatorcane]

Is anybody looking at this vigorous wave tonight? -- I am not liking the looks of it at all.....

[Jinkers]

Wow, that does look interesting, I will keep an eye on this one.

[Vortex]

CMC 12Z continues to be consistent and bring a hurricane to south/central Florida by the nd of the week...


http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... dd_100.gif

[ericinmia]

yeah just before that image was posted I was looking at a loop, and was rather bothered to see that convective burst....

[gatorcane]

note this model also accurately predicted Katrina which developed at these lattitudes...

We should closely watch what happens with this one IMHO.

[windstorm99]

Iam watching gator....As high is forcasted to build on top of it and overall create a favorable enviroment for this to pop.

[Vortex]

18z GFDL also shows a closed low in the bahamas albeit weak but but more importantly it picks up on it


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Emmett_Brown]

Is anybody looking at this vigorous wave tonight? -- I am not liking the looks of it at all.....

Yup, has my attention. This setup is earily similar to 2004, and the recent strong ridge would definitely warrant FL attention. I live in NE FL near St Augustine. It has been a long time since we got hit from the east (1964 Dora). While the 1900's were pretty much devoid of hurricane hits in NE FL, the 1800's were a different story where NE FL and SE GA were hit several times. Therefore, it's not if it will happen again, it's when.

If a storm forms from this, I see it heading W/NW for a while... The ridge should hang tough for the rest of the week. FL Straights to the Carolinas should watch and be ready in case something pops. When it does, there might not be much time to act.

Fortunately, it looks like development is slow at the moment.

Anybody who flames us for paying attention to this doesnt understand the spirit of this board, which is to discuss new threats, and to openly discuss which areas would potentially be threatened. Florida is the most hurricane prone state, so FL residents are alwasy on the alert.

[Vortex]

18z HWRF same thing picks up on a closed low in the bahamas


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[gatorcane]

and flare up system in this area can....

the Great 1935 Labor Day Keys Hurricane formed just east of the Bahamas and grew rapidly into a CAT 5 in just a couple of days...

Anything in this area this time of year will get my attention.

[Vortex]

12z mm5 also picks up on closed low north of the greater antilles

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... =Animation

[gatorcane]

Looks like our vigorous wave is already feeling the effects of a building ridge to the north -- you can see how it moved NW over the day and then the blob has started moving more WNW to West.......

[nutkin178]

Schools were out for 4 weeks here after Rita.

[Tropics Guy]

Looks like the CMC model was right picking up a developing low, and now some of the other models are hinting at a closed low developing in the bahamas during the next few days. The blow-up of convection northeast of the leewards has been impressive this evening, and there appears to be a mid-level spin around 21N 55W.
Conditions will only get better for this to develop in the coming days while it moves W or WNW towards the Bahamas then possible towards the EC of FL. Think we will have an new invest tomorrow.

TG

[Vortex]

Conditions will only improve as this system heads w/wnw. In fact the conditions will be very favorable aloft and there's no reason this system shouldn't continue w and be in the bahamas late week. A very interesting situation setting up for the bahamas/FL.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I think this could be a tropical system as it moves
towards florida's east coast. Conditions are very favorable
for a building area of high pressure. This needs to be
watched very closely.

[windstorm99]