CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[philnyc]

if you were listening to Jamaican radio you might think differently

There is no way gusts that high could have made their way to Kingston. I am sure people were scared. It is very hard for the average person to tell the difference between a 120 and a 160 mph gust....

Yeah, I don't buy the 180 knot reading, but the 138mph reading is apparently correct. That, as we all know, can do a a lot of damage. And a lot of damage reports are coming out of Kingston now...

[CrazyC83]

006
URNT15 KNHC 200104
AF304 1104A DEAN HDOB 15 20070820
005430 1743N 07555W 6964 03168 0075 +085 +058 137051 051 032 000 00
005500 1742N 07557W 6965 03166 0071 +087 +053 138052 053 035 000 00
005530 1742N 07559W 6967 03159 0071 +085 +058 141052 052 030 001 00
005600 1741N 07600W 6965 03162 0072 +083 +062 139052 052 032 002 00
005630 1740N 07602W 6969 03158 0071 +082 +071 139050 051 033 003 00
005700 1740N 07604W 6963 03163 0071 +081 +076 139050 050 033 004 00
005730 1739N 07606W 6971 03155 0074 +079 +079 140050 050 033 004 00
005800 1738N 07608W 6965 03159 0078 +075 +075 141049 050 034 002 00
005830 1738N 07610W 6967 03156 0079 +074 +072 144049 050 034 003 00
005900 1737N 07612W 6969 03156 0079 +074 +074 143051 051 034 005 00
005930 1737N 07614W 6963 03162 0080 +070 +070 143050 052 035 005 00
010000 1736N 07615W 6966 03156 0080 +071 +071 145050 050 034 005 00
010030 1735N 07617W 6967 03153 0076 +075 +075 144051 052 035 004 03
010100 1735N 07619W 6966 03156 0074 +073 +073 145053 053 035 005 03
010130 1735N 07621W 6967 03153 0076 +072 +072 145052 053 037 005 00
010200 1736N 07623W 6967 03153 0076 +073 +073 141054 055 038 005 00
010230 1736N 07626W 6968 03150 0077 +072 +072 141059 060 039 006 00
010300 1736N 07628W 6971 03147 0064 +080 +080 141057 058 038 005 00
010330 1736N 07630W 6963 03157 0070 +074 +074 144055 056 039 005 00
010400 1736N 07632W 6967 03147 0078 +067 +067 143056 057 042 025 00
$$

[shelby]

Dr Neil Frank on 11 was still talking about the ULL moving needing to continue to move west

Thanks - still have not learned to link

[Texashawk]

Here is a link to a video clip on what Dr. Neil Frank was saying about the Low:

http://www.khou.com/video/index.html?nvid=167893&shu=1

thanks for that link! Dr. Frank always explains things in very simple and clear terms.

I love Dr. Frank. We are all going to miss him when he retires. It seemed like he was getting a little senile last year, but he seems to have recovered nicely these last several months. He is quite an asset to Houston!

[tolakram]

[JessRomero]

One question can this storm still turn toward Texas??

[Sanibel]

Could easily get 180KTS if a tornadic cell passed by the reader...

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 200114
AF304 1104A DEAN HDOB 16 20070820
010430 1736N 07634W 6966 03144 0094 +054 +054 148057 060 046 022 05
010500 1736N 07636W 6955 03153 9990 +055 +999 152049 055 051 019 01
010530 1736N 07638W 6973 03135 9990 +063 +999 153056 061 041 032 05
010600 1736N 07640W 6970 03136 0054 +078 +078 154056 057 038 007 00
010630 1736N 07642W 6963 03142 0053 +077 +077 151056 057 038 006 00
010700 1736N 07644W 6970 03133 0062 +070 +070 154060 060 040 006 00
010730 1736N 07646W 6968 03133 0059 +070 +070 156059 060 040 006 00
010800 1736N 07648W 6960 03139 0048 +073 +073 152060 061 043 008 00
010830 1736N 07650W 6973 03123 0048 +070 +070 151057 059 046 004 00
010900 1736N 07653W 6964 03130 0031 +083 +083 153052 053 047 004 00
010930 1736N 07655W 6962 03131 0053 +064 +064 150051 053 048 038 03
011000 1736N 07657W 6968 03133 9990 +054 +999 150048 050 051 034 01
011030 1736N 07659W 6970 03111 9990 +055 +999 160060 064 050 039 01
011100 1736N 07701W 6963 03125 0051 +057 +057 165061 061 053 042 03
011130 1736N 07703W 6973 03112 0047 +065 +065 161059 059 045 023 03
011200 1736N 07705W 6965 03121 0030 +077 +077 164058 059 045 007 00
011230 1736N 07706W 6965 03117 0027 +069 +069 157064 074 044 007 03
011300 1736N 07709W 6957 03131 9990 +059 +999 149062 066 048 030 01
011330 1736N 07711W 6966 03107 9990 +047 +999 158062 065 049 024 05
011400 1736N 07713W 6963 03112 0025 +069 +069 155061 062 042 009 00
$$

[Pearl River]

I thought it looked like the upper low moved a little to the east too, but the more I looked at it, I think it was just an erosion of the moisture.

[tolakram]

[Texashawk]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Don't want to alarm people but the ULL has slighty moved east over the last frame. It is clear that for now it has at the least stalled. Also the High pressure is still hugging the Mexican coast.

This is the part I've been worrying about... Dean has already gained some ground on the ULL as it was, and now he should make even more progress. I just don't see how the high is going to sit on top of Dean all the way through the Yucatan... does anyone tend to agree with me yet that the models will tend to shift north?

If that ULL stalls or even worse starts to move east in earnest expect big changes in the models. Just My opinion.

Yeah... looking at a loop from the last 7 readings (almost 4 hours worth) it is basically stationary. Maybe we need to be watching this instead of the actual storm...

[Cape Verde]

One question can this storm still turn toward Texas??

Yes.

It's less likely now than it was a couple of days ago, but there's no such thing as a slam dunk.

Watch Dr. Neil Frank's weather segment from tonight. He used to head up the NHC.

http://www.khou.com/video/index.html?nvid=167893&shu=1

[Pearl River]

Don't shoot the messenger, I'm just posting what is on the NOAA International Weather site.

Current Weather Conditions:
Kingston / Norman Manley, Jamaica
(MKJP) 17-56N 076-47W 14M

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conditions at Aug 19, 2007 - 09:00 PM EDTAug 19, 2007 - 08:00 PM CDTAug 19, 2007 - 07:00 PM MDTAug 19, 2007 - 06:00 PM PDTAug 19, 2007 - 05:00 PM ADTAug 19, 2007 - 04:00 PM HDT
2007.08.20 0100 UTC
Visibility less than 1 mile
Sky conditions overcast
Weather Heavy rain showers, squalls
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
ob MKJP 200100Z 110P99KT 0000 +SHRASQ BKN008 SC010CB OVC080

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[HollynLA]

I've been watching the wv loop all day and it does appear that the ULL has stalled for the most part. Was this anticipated by the models?

[gotoman38]

One question can this storm still turn toward Texas??

I don't think so. NHC and the models agree - forecast shifting further south of the TX/MX border is possible.

[CrazyC83]

372
URNT15 KNHC 200124
AF304 1104A DEAN HDOB 17 20070820
011430 1736N 07715W 6969 03101 0023 +072 +072 157060 061 041 006 00
011500 1736N 07717W 6961 03106 0021 +068 +068 154063 064 042 007 00
011530 1736N 07719W 6971 03091 9998 +083 +083 156063 064 044 007 00
011600 1736N 07721W 6969 03091 9994 +083 +083 155065 066 044 007 00
011630 1736N 07723W 6964 03091 9983 +085 +085 154065 066 042 007 00
011700 1736N 07725W 6971 03079 9983 +085 +085 153067 067 045 006 00
011730 1736N 07727W 6969 03078 9980 +085 +085 155066 067 050 007 00
011800 1736N 07729W 6961 03085 9987 +073 +073 156063 067 052 049 03
011830 1736N 07731W 6972 03067 9967 +082 +082 153069 069 050 037 03
011900 1736N 07733W 6965 03068 9963 +083 +083 154070 073 053 043 03
011930 1736N 07735W 6969 03057 9958 +082 +082 155076 077 054 053 03
012000 1736N 07737W 6966 03054 9941 +088 +088 153079 079 054 032 03
012030 1736N 07739W 6965 03046 9932 +087 +087 150082 083 056 010 03
012100 1736N 07741W 6968 03034 9922 +087 +087 151084 085 057 009 00
012130 1735N 07743W 6963 03029 9910 +087 +087 149085 086 060 009 00
012200 1735N 07745W 6968 03010 9906 +080 +080 149090 093 063 010 00
012230 1735N 07747W 6964 03001 9902 +072 +072 150096 097 067 043 03
012300 1734N 07749W 6964 02987 9887 +070 +070 148101 103 072 009 00
012330 1734N 07751W 6966 02966 9873 +066 +066 148107 110 077 032 03
012400 1734N 07753W 6961 02950 9841 +064 +064 150108 109 083 012 05
$$

Heading for the eye.

[JessRomero]

One question can this storm still turn toward Texas??

Yes.

It's less likely now than it was a couple of days ago, but there's no such thing as a slam dunk.

Watch Dr. Neil Frank's weather segment from tonight. He used to head up the NHC.

http://www.khou.com/video/index.html?nvid=167893&shu=1

Thank you but we don't have cable and I am on dail up so u know watching clips on the internet lol don't work very well but I am still concerned with dean moving our direction does it look the high isn't goin to protect us??

[Berwick Bay]

As for the ULL, I speculated on this earlier this morning with friends of mine. I wondered about the possibility of the ULL becoming elongated in the Gulf. Perhaps dipping down into the Bay of Campeche. Wondered whether if that happened, then the forward progress of the ULL might slow as the ULL stretched out along a SW to NE axis from the Bay of Campeche. Its something I've looked for during the day today and will continue to look for tonight and tomorrow.

[tolakram]

[srainhoutx]

I've been watching the wv loop all day and it does appear that the ULL has stalled for the most part. Was this anticipated by the models?

No,it was not.