New storm on the horizon??

[ericinmia]

This IR loop shows nicely how this came about.....

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... m16ir.html

[canegrl04]

This one has the potential to become a monster .A track across Florida and then into the GOM

[windstorm99]

This area might very get tagged sometime during the day tommorow...

[PTrackerLA]

This area does look quite suspicious this evening. More importantly anything that forms here under this pattern will be steered right towards the US.

[Emmett_Brown]

This one has the potential to become a monster .A track across Florida and then into the GOM

Yup, i could see that... It is amazing how far Dean has moved West while only gaining a few degrees of latitude. Crossing FL into the GOM seems quite possible, and would not be at all surprising... after all, it is August, and troughs are very shallow.

[wzrgirl1]

could be a player...the thing is, that we woldn't have a lot of time to prepare for this one as it is only about 800 miles from the coast and moving at a pretty good clip

[Vortex]

Convection continuing to blossom and shoel really come together over the next few days...


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[CrazyC83]

How can it go into Florida when there is a ridge sitting there?

[Weatherfreak000]

Yes, it does appear as if 92L is definitely on the way soon.


Felix is a nasty name too...

[CrazyC83]

Yes, it does appear as if 92L is definitely on the way soon.


Felix is a nasty name too...

Yeah, this isn't the Cat I want to have as a pet...

[windstorm99]

How can it go into Florida when there is a ridge sitting there?

Exactly with that ridge in place a WNW-W movement seems like a good bet for this area.Conditions look quite favorable for some development.

[Brent]

This area is looking really interesting tonight...

[windstorm99]

This area is looking really interesting tonight...

Yep...

[Sanibel]

I'd be very worried about this IF Dean wasn't churning away to its SW. If Dean hadn't formed I'd be astounded about the 1935 - 2007 analogy. But since Dean has drained the basin, even if this one forms it could be kept down by Dean. Who knows?

If Dean wasn't there I'd be thinking repeat of Labor Day storm track.

[jhamps10]

I'd be very worried about this IF Dean wasn't churning away to its SW. If Dean hadn't formed I'd be astounded about the 1935 - 2007 analogy. But since Dean has drained the basin, even if this one forms it could be kept down by Dean. Who knows?

If Dean wasn't there I'd be thinking repeat of Labor Day storm track.

it may have drained it some, BUT there is still a lot of warm water that's ready to power up a cane.

[windstorm99]

I'd be very worried about this IF Dean wasn't churning away to its SW. If Dean hadn't formed I'd be astounded about the 1935 - 2007 analogy. But since Dean has drained the basin, even if this one forms it could be kept down by Dean. Who knows?

If Dean wasn't there I'd be thinking repeat of Labor Day storm track.

Dean or no dean upper level winds are becoming more favorable from what ive looked at and with a ridge to its north its worth keeping an eye on through the week.

[Recurve]

...

If Dean wasn't there I'd be thinking repeat of Labor Day storm track.

Bite yer tongue.

I've been watching Dean, had no idea we were up to 11 pages on this.

Bears watching for sure. Can someone summarize what's going on. I read all the thread but I'm not sure what besides CMC and a brief mention in a TWO we know.

Definitely under influence of ridge here and gradient to Dean to the south. Really steady and strong easterly flow over the Keys tonight, some convection tracking in from the straits.

[wxmann_91]

I'd be very worried about this IF Dean wasn't churning away to its SW. If Dean hadn't formed I'd be astounded about the 1935 - 2007 analogy. But since Dean has drained the basin, even if this one forms it could be kept down by Dean. Who knows?

If Dean wasn't there I'd be thinking repeat of Labor Day storm track.

Analogs don't work that way. Whether Dean formed or not, what happened in 1937 has no bearing on what will happen with this system.

[Sanibel]

The only problem with that is I bet you couldn't tell me exactly how analogues work.

Without Dean, a homebrew system that west-tracks into south Florida from the Bahamas would be exactly analogous, whether they work that way or not.

The analogy failed when Dean long-tracked from Africa, since 1935 had no such system.

[boca]

It would be amazing if the CMC model verified this senario.It looks like it would be 92L tomorrow.