CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[CrazyC83]

114
URNT15 KNHC 200504
AF304 1104A DEAN HDOB 39 20070820
045430 1734N 08037W 6967 03125 0019 +092 +080 021047 048 038 004 00
045500 1734N 08035W 6968 03122 0019 +090 +090 017052 055 040 007 00
045530 1734N 08034W 6973 03112 0004 +099 +080 016051 052 042 005 00
045600 1734N 08032W 6969 03114 0001 +099 +074 018050 051 044 003 00
045630 1734N 08030W 6964 03116 0001 +096 +068 018050 050 044 002 00
045700 1734N 08029W 6967 03111 0000 +096 +066 018050 051 042 003 00
045730 1734N 08027W 6965 03112 9997 +095 +076 021053 054 043 002 00
045800 1734N 08025W 6964 03108 9998 +089 +082 023056 056 043 003 00
045830 1734N 08024W 6967 03101 0001 +084 +084 021056 057 043 003 00
045900 1734N 08022W 6965 03100 9995 +086 +086 020056 057 043 003 00
045930 1734N 08020W 6965 03095 9992 +083 +083 019055 056 043 005 00
050000 1734N 08019W 6972 03083 0004 +075 +075 014054 058 043 006 00
050030 1734N 08017W 6959 03096 9971 +094 +087 014053 054 044 004 00
050100 1734N 08015W 6970 03080 9972 +091 +088 015056 056 044 004 00
050130 1734N 08014W 6964 03080 9975 +083 +083 013057 057 045 004 00
050200 1734N 08012W 6969 03071 9970 +084 +084 012058 059 050 006 00
050230 1734N 08010W 6965 03066 9964 +081 +081 009061 065 051 008 00
050300 1734N 08009W 6964 03061 9948 +087 +087 005063 065 051 005 00
050330 1734N 08007W 6967 03052 9949 +083 +083 005067 069 051 008 03
050400 1734N 08005W 6963 03051 9952 +076 +076 008066 069 052 008 00
$$

[Stratosphere747]

I believe you just had some concerned Texans that when the possibility was brought up, it kind of snowballed. Couple that with the fact of Neil mentioning it with a link provided, added a little fuel to the fire.

Good learning experience....

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT15 KNHC 200514
AF304 1104A DEAN HDOB 40 20070820
050430 1735N 08004W 6963 03045 9955 +068 +068 013068 070 056 052 03
050500 1735N 08002W 6967 03033 9958 +057 +057 018075 077 999 999 05
050530 1735N 08001W 6964 03026 9917 +080 +080 019076 077 056 008 03
050600 1735N 07959W 6968 03015 9894 +091 +091 019082 084 058 008 00
050630 1735N 07958W 6964 03005 9883 +090 +090 019086 089 060 007 00
050700 1735N 07957W 6972 02984 9863 +095 +095 019091 092 061 007 00
050730 1735N 07955W 6969 02973 9847 +095 +095 019096 099 063 009 00
050800 1736N 07954W 6959 02975 9852 +081 +081 018099 101 068 010 00
050830 1736N 07953W 6957 02958 9849 +067 +067 014099 103 070 044 05
050900 1736N 07951W 6966 02932 9819 +067 +067 015101 102 078 008 05
050930 1736N 07950W 6967 02909 9793 +077 +077 015111 114 081 031 03
051000 1736N 07948W 6968 02881 9785 +061 +061 011114 115 084 025 00
051030 1736N 07947W 6970 02844 9990 +068 +999 013124 129 087 032 01
051100 1736N 07946W 6969 02823 9666 +088 +088 021114 121 091 019 05
051130 1736N 07945W 6964 02792 9631 +104 +104 019109 110 101 015 03
051200 1736N 07943W 6972 02756 9595 +109 +109 017107 109 105 015 00
051230 1736N 07942W 6960 02734 9572 +099 +099 013109 110 106 021 05
051300 1736N 07940W 6972 02678 9990 +093 +999 012109 111 113 013 05
051330 1736N 07939W 6960 02644 9461 +099 +099 011111 112 115 008 00
051400 1736N 07938W 6980 02556 9381 +104 +104 011100 114 107 012 01
$$


129 knots maximum at flight-level; 115 knots maximum SFMR.

[Starburst]

Thanks Met's for your views
Some of us had just noticed that the ULL had slowed down to a crawl so to speak, Dean was speeding up in movement, and local forecasters had also mentioned the fact that the ULL was not moving much and was possibly pulling moisture from Deans outer bands. That in itself grew curiosity and speculation of course, if the ULL stalls completely would it have a factor on pulling Dean North. As Strat 457 stated it snowballs from that point as some met's on other weather boards say yes it will have an effect, some say no. But I believe you answered the question that most had asked and we thank you.

[baitism]

And in the meantime, the cloud tops of Dean have been getting cooler....

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT15 KNHC 200524
AF304 1104A DEAN HDOB 41 20070820
051430 1736N 07936W 6979 02518 9317 +144 +144 017055 067 100 013 03
051500 1736N 07934W 6971 02514 9279 +164 +155 023032 033 054 001 03
051530 1736N 07933W 6969 02503 9266 +167 +147 035024 027 028 004 03
051600 1735N 07931W 6964 02500 9254 +170 +148 059015 019 021 003 00
051630 1734N 07929W 6968 02494 9254 +166 +148 133009 015 019 004 00
051700 1734N 07928W 6965 02506 9298 +154 +148 179029 039 032 004 03
051730 1734N 07926W 6971 02516 9290 +156 +156 185055 066 053 005 00
051800 1734N 07926W 6971 02516 9327 +146 +146 184071 088 075 009 00
051830 1734N 07922W 6973 02608 9386 +159 +145 182111 119 089 000 00
051900 1734N 07921W 6961 02680 9453 +157 +107 179119 120 103 000 00
051930 1734N 07919W 6966 02724 9507 +154 +116 178117 119 110 000 00
052000 1734N 07917W 6979 02741 9580 +119 +119 170112 113 118 007 00
052030 1734N 07916W 6960 02809 9990 +090 +999 176108 109 115 020 01
052100 1734N 07914W 6977 02837 9990 +070 +999 175117 122 102 036 01
052130 1734N 07913W 6956 02885 9990 +066 +999 172117 120 093 025 05
052200 1734N 07912W 6982 02887 9990 +058 +999 168114 116 999 999 05
052230 1734N 07910W 6963 02936 9833 +064 +064 169108 110 081 019 00
052300 1734N 07909W 6966 02950 9848 +070 +070 168104 106 076 009 00
052330 1734N 07907W 6964 02970 9869 +069 +069 167100 101 071 012 00
052400 1734N 07907W 6964 02970 9877 +071 +071 168098 099 068 012 00
$$

122 knots maximum at flight-level; 118 maximum SFMR; minimum extrapolated pressure of 925.4 mb.

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT15 KNHC 200534
AF304 1104A DEAN HDOB 42 20070820
052430 1734N 07904W 6969 02990 9906 +065 +065 166090 092 067 024 03
052500 1734N 07903W 6967 03005 9915 +068 +068 167086 087 065 043 03
052530 1734N 07901W 6969 03013 9924 +070 +070 168083 085 062 012 00
052600 1734N 07900W 6965 03027 9919 +082 +082 169081 082 060 009 00
052630 1734N 07858W 6967 03034 9931 +081 +081 167078 079 057 009 00
052700 1734N 07856W 6965 03043 9927 +089 +089 165077 078 053 007 00
052730 1734N 07855W 6967 03048 9941 +085 +085 165074 076 051 005 00
052800 1734N 07853W 6967 03054 9946 +085 +085 164072 073 050 005 00
052830 1734N 07852W 6967 03057 9948 +088 +086 165071 072 049 005 00
052900 1734N 07850W 6967 03065 9950 +092 +082 165069 069 049 005 00
052930 1734N 07848W 6963 03074 9960 +088 +088 164067 069 052 007 00
053000 1734N 07847W 6967 03072 9993 +066 +066 168062 063 052 048 03
053030 1734N 07847W 6967 03072 9987 +070 +070 167062 063 051 014 00
053100 1734N 07843W 6968 03076 9971 +088 +088 165065 065 051 009 00
053130 1734N 07842W 6971 03082 9990 +065 +999 164063 065 050 007 01
053200 1734N 07842W 6971 03082 9990 +063 +999 162062 063 049 011 05
053230 1734N 07839W 6968 03086 9989 +083 +083 162061 062 046 005 00
053300 1734N 07837W 6970 03089 9994 +081 +081 160062 063 046 005 00
053330 1734N 07835W 6967 03095 9999 +081 +081 161067 069 045 005 00
053400 1734N 07834W 6965 03100 0001 +081 +081 161063 063 045 006 00
$$

[Scorpion]

Dean has the look of an impending monster hurricane, ala Gilbert. Great outflow.

[Sanibel]

Dean has grown a red IR ring around his eye. You've got your cold tops folks. Throttle up for Category 5 over warm SST's.

If I were in Belize I would not feel comfortable with this latest west veer. The ridge could be stronger than expected. Definitely a hurricane watch for Belize. (No, novices that doesn't mean I'm saying it's going there)


My opinions are not endorsed by Storm2k

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT12 KNHC 200537
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 20/05:16:20Z
B. 17 deg 34 min N
079 deg 30 min W
C. 700 mb 2454 m
D. 115 kt
E. 281 deg 9 nm
F. 013 deg 129 kt
G. 275 deg 016 nm
H. 926 mb
I. 6 C/ 3049 m
J. 17 C/ 3044 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO15-27
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 1104A DEAN OB 23
MAX FL WIND 145 KT N QUAD 03:48:20 Z
MAX SWS OUTBOUND 118 KT E QUAD 05:20:00 Z

[dwsqos2]

Eyewall Drop...

000
UZNT13 KNHC 200538
XXAA 70057 99176 70796 04479 99942 25004 ///// 00/// ///// /////
92163 24003 31641 85904 21405 34114 70573 11200 01113 88999 77999
31313 09608 80513
61616 AF304 1104A DEAN OB 24
62626 EYEWALL 270 SPL 1749N07961W 0517 LST WND 018 MBL WND 32141
AEV 00000 DLM WND 34614 940710 WL150 31134 093 =
XXBB 70058 99176 70796 04479 00942 25004 11850 21405 22728 15008
33707 14400 44697 10000
21212 00942 ///// 11940 31626 22936 31127 33932 31137 44926 31639
55919 32154 66902 32148 77890 33623 88877 34118 99865 34620 11850
34114 22697 01112
31313 09608 80513
61616 AF304 1104A DEAN OB 24
62626 EYEWALL 270 SPL 1749N07961W 0517 LST WND 018 MBL WND 32141
AEV 00000 DLM WND 34614 940710 WL150 31134 093 =


942 mb; no surface winds; 925 mb winds of 141 knots; MBL winds of 141 knots.




Eye Drop...

000
UZNT13 KNHC 200540
XXAA 70057 99176 70795 04479 99926 28013 12514 00/// ///// /////
92006 28013 ///// 85756 23608 13517 70442 16000 17014 88999 77999
31313 09608 80516
61616 AF304 1104A DEAN OB 25
62626 EYE SPL 1758N07950W 0519 MBL WND 13517 AEV 00000 DLM WND 14
016 925712 WL150 13017 083 =
XXBB 70058 99176 70795 04479 00926 28013 11850 23608 22710 17605
33697 15400
21212 00926 12514 11915 13519 22850 13517 33782 13014 44712 15015
55697 17514
31313 09608 80516
61616 AF304 1104A DEAN OB 25
62626 EYE SPL 1758N07950W 0519 MBL WND 13517 AEV 00000 DLM WND 14
016 925712 WL150 13017 083 =


926 mb; surface winds of 14 knots; MBL winds of 17 knots.

[Stratosphere747]

This satellite eclipse has become increasingly annoying...

Tracking it with recon obs are just not the same.

[tailgater]

Try this 7hr WV loop
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=7

[dwsqos2]

Eyewall Drop...

000
UZNT13 KNHC 200542
XXAA 70057 99176 70793 04479 99953 25206 13133 00925 ///// /////
92264 23805 15159 85002 21006 17115 70679 14203 17115 88999 77999
31313 09608 80519
61616 AF304 1104A DEAN OB 26
62626 EYEWALL 090 SPL 1768N07934W 0523 MBL WND 15145 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 16119 951722 WL150 13143 086 =
XXBB 70058 99176 70793 04479 00953 25206 11850 21006 22808 19413
33798 21235 44736 17225 55722 17614 66698 14002
21212 00953 13133 11944 13148 22937 13645 33932 14151 44929 14150
55926 14660 66923 15155 77919 15654 88915 15642 99900 16138 11887
16628 22879 16614 33873 16618 44865 16608 55850 17115 66829 17097
77804 16617 88698 17115
31313 09608 80519
61616 AF304 1104A DEAN OB 26
62626 EYEWALL 090 SPL 1768N07934W 0523 MBL WND 15145 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 16119 951722 WL150 13143 086 =

953 mb; surface winds of 133 knots; MBL winds of 145 knots.

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT15 KNHC 200544
AF304 1104A DEAN HDOB 43 20070820
053430 1734N 07834W 6965 03100 0005 +080 +080 162063 063 045 006 00
053500 1734N 07830W 6967 03105 0007 +081 +081 163063 063 044 005 00
053530 1734N 07829W 6973 03097 0006 +083 +083 163063 064 042 006 00
053600 1734N 07827W 6966 03108 0012 +080 +080 163061 062 041 004 00
053630 1734N 07826W 6967 03107 0028 +068 +068 162060 062 041 006 00
053700 1734N 07824W 6967 03112 0026 +074 +074 165058 059 041 006 00
053730 1734N 07822W 6967 03114 0028 +075 +075 164059 061 040 005 00
053800 1734N 07821W 6964 03121 0030 +076 +076 163058 059 038 004 00
053830 1734N 07819W 6967 03121 0035 +075 +075 160058 060 038 004 00
053900 1734N 07817W 6969 03118 0040 +073 +073 156060 062 038 007 00
053930 1734N 07816W 6959 03129 0038 +069 +069 157061 063 039 033 03
054000 1734N 07814W 7000 03079 9990 +052 +999 157058 061 039 030 01
054030 1734N 07813W 6956 03140 0051 +067 +067 159059 060 038 008 00
054100 1734N 07811W 6967 03129 0045 +076 +076 161057 058 036 005 00
054130 1734N 07811W 6967 03129 0041 +079 +079 161057 058 035 005 00
054200 1734N 07808W 6971 03128 0041 +082 +082 161057 057 037 006 00
054230 1734N 07806W 6978 03122 9990 +054 +999 157055 057 039 031 05
054300 1734N 07804W 6962 03142 0047 +078 +078 161057 058 040 007 00
054330 1734N 07803W 6966 03135 0048 +077 +077 164056 058 999 999 03
054400 1735N 07801W 6970 03135 0036 +087 +087 167054 057 999 999 03
$$

[sponger]

The NHC nailed another one. These guys are leaps and bounds from 10 years ago.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah the cold cloud tops are forming. But the inner core of this system is not stable, with the fact that it has been going through many EWRC's. Lets see if this super powerful TCHP can stablise the core to allow it to bomb.

[Scorpion]

Oh boy... 133 kt surface winds confirmed by dropsonde!

[dwsqos2]

The mean boundary layer wind on that sonde (145 knots) only justifies around 114 knots.



000
UZNT13 KNHC 200542
XXAA 70057 99176 70793 04479 99953 25206 13133 00925 ///// /////
92264 23805 15159 85002 21006 17115 70679 14203 17115 88999 77999
31313 09608 80519
61616 AF304 1104A DEAN OB 26
62626 EYEWALL 090 SPL 1768N07934W 0523 MBL WND 15145 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 16119 951722 WL150 13143 086 =
XXBB 70058 99176 70793 04479 00953 25206 11850 21006 22808 19413
33798 21235 44736 17225 55722 17614 66698 14002
21212 00953 13133 11944 13148 22937 13645 33932 14151 44929 14150
55926 14660 66923 15155 77919 15654 88915 15642 99900 16138 11887
16628 22879 16614 33873 16618 44865 16608 55850 17115 66829 17097
77804 16617 88698 17115
31313 09608 80519
61616 AF304 1104A DEAN OB 26
62626 EYEWALL 090 SPL 1768N07934W 0523 MBL WND 15145 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 16119 951722 WL150 13143 086 =

Having said that, yes the sonde measured some rather impressive winds (See in particular 919-944 mb).

[Scorpion]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 200550
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
200 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

...DEAN MOVING AWAY FROM JAMAICA...COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE TODAY...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM BELIZE CITY
NORTHWARD TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI IS
DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF BELIZE FROM SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE
BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES...
240 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. DEAN COULD
REACH CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 926 MB...27.34 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREAS
IN JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES
IN JAMAICA SHOULD SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 9 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20
INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HAITI. EASTERN CUBA COULD
RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 7
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...17.7 N...79.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.

$$