Invest 92L,West Atlantic

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Post away.

[jhamps10]

Well going from nothing to an invest in 36 hours.

[HURAKAN]

Meet 92L!! AKA Félix in a few days.

[windstorm99]

[dhall21]

Will most likely develop...conditions are fav.

[wxwonder12]

talk about not wasting any time

[Bane]

conditions are getting more favorable.

[dhall21]

u guys have any idea where this thing should go?

[punkyg]

This is so exciting something else might develop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/vis-l.jpg

[ExBailbonds]

good morning 92L

[Weatherfreak14]

Now, we can really say we are now in the heat of the hurricane season, when one makes landfall another one forms. looks very good right now i see a possible depresson soon in 48-72hrs.

[HURAKAN]

talk about not wasting any time

It tops on Sep. 10, no time to waste.

[mutley]

Did any of the models predict this? And if so, what was the preliminary track?

[dhall21]

cmc model develop it and slams it into east coast florida...

[dhall21]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

[jhamps10]

Did any of the models predict this? And if so, what was the preliminary track?

CMC,nogaps, and i believe Euro develops this into South FLorida, CMC as a major cane, and also tracks it across Florida into the GOM.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 201221
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1221 UTC MON AUG 20 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922007) 20070820 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070820 1200 070821 0000 070821 1200 070822 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.3N 54.7W 24.0N 58.6W 25.7N 62.2W 27.3N 65.3W
BAMD 22.3N 54.7W 23.9N 58.1W 25.2N 61.3W 26.4N 64.0W
BAMM 22.3N 54.7W 23.9N 58.3W 25.4N 61.7W 26.8N 64.6W
LBAR 22.3N 54.7W 23.7N 57.4W 25.1N 59.7W 26.2N 61.4W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 33KTS 41KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 33KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070822 1200 070823 1200 070824 1200 070825 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.4N 67.4W 29.4N 69.8W 29.3N 71.8W 29.4N 74.1W
BAMD 27.3N 65.9W 27.5N 67.6W 26.8N 69.5W 26.9N 71.3W
BAMM 27.8N 66.7W 28.4N 68.5W 27.8N 70.0W 27.9N 71.7W
LBAR 26.8N 62.9W 26.9N 63.9W 26.3N 63.7W 28.3N 63.1W
SHIP 50KTS 61KTS 70KTS 75KTS
DSHP 50KTS 61KTS 70KTS 75KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.3N LONCUR = 54.7W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 21.3N LONM12 = 52.0W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 20.3N LONM24 = 49.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


First model plots.

[dhall21]

i really dont see how it can be a major hurricane by the time it gets to florida...too close unless there is rapid development

[jhamps10]

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.4N 67.4W 29.4N 69.8W 29.3N 71.8W 29.4N 74.1W
BAMD 27.3N 65.9W 27.5N 67.6W 26.8N 69.5W 26.9N 71.3W
BAMM 27.8N 66.7W 28.4N 68.5W 27.8N 70.0W 27.9N 71.7W
LBAR 26.8N 62.9W 26.9N 63.9W 26.3N 63.7W 28.3N 63.1W
SHIP 50KTS 61KTS 70KTS 75KTS
DSHP 50KTS 61KTS 70KTS 75KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.3N LONCUR = 54.7W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 21.3N LONM12 = 52.0W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 20.3N LONM24 = 49.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


First model plots.

First plots, and they have it going to hurricane status.

[Blown Away]

Very few storms that form N of 20N and E of 60N make it to Florida. I'll bet a fish spinner or Mid Atlantic storm, IMO.