Invest 92L,West Atlantic

[boca]

Here's the latest model runs as of this morning.
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_92.gif

[HURAKAN]

Does anyone have any new models on this invest?

They were in the 2nd page.

[drezee]

no recon on the POD

778
NOUS42 KNHC 201430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT MON 20 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-088

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE DEAN
FLIGHT ONE
A. 21/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 1404A DEAN
C. 21/0230Z
D. 18.6N 86.9W
E. 21/0500Z TO 210/1230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 21/1800,22/0000Z
B. AFXXX 1504A DEAN
C. 21/1445Z
D. 19.4N 90.40W
E. 21/1700Z TO 22/0030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE
A. 22/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 1704A DEAN
C. 22/0245Z
D. 20.9N 93.9W
E. 22/0500Z TO 22/1230Z
D. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[ronjon]

Does anyone have SHIPs intensity from the 12Z model runs? Ok I see it on the plot, wow 86 kts in 5 days.

[Zardoz]

Well, in my eyes, I see conditions becoming favorable pretty darn quick this morning. I wouldn't be surprised to see tropical cyclone development faster than we think.

There appears to be real cyclonic rotation now, centered at about 23N 57W.

GOES East Rainbow

Or am I seeing things?

[storms in NC]

Hey No one is picking up on this one so it maybe nothing. Where is GFS models?

[BensonTCwatcher]

You can see the low level clouds between Florida and this invest streaming very quickly towards Florida -- that is the direction I think it will move. Whether it develops and/or impacts Florida is still a question....

Deep easterlies are now entrenched across Florida and the western Atlantic....

Most winds are E at 15-25mph across the east coast of Florida (Dean is increasing the pressure gradient also)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

I agree, if this develops it looks like it heads for FL. But there is some troughiness that may or may not dig deep enough to turn it before it would make land. If it makes the coast by 72 hours I think it's westward ho. If it slows, it turns north.

[x-y-no]

Well, in my eyes, I see conditions becoming favorable pretty darn quick this morning. I wouldn't be surprised to see tropical cyclone development faster than we think.

There appears to be real cyclonic rotation now, centered at about 23N 57W.

GOES East Rainbow

Or am I seeing things?

I don't see anything but a pretty well-defined wave so far.

BTW, when it's available - visible is much better for discerning low-level flow than RGB is.

[storms in NC]

there is a start of a spin there on the VLoop

[BensonTCwatcher]

See my post The GOES java page allows you to zoom the visible to see the low level clouds. That area looks to have convergence, but I don't think a circulation is there or will develop there. There is an anticyclone developing in the convection around 20N 55W That's where I'd bet this thing spins up from. We'll see

[gatorcane]

See my post The GOES java page allows you to zoom the visible to see the low level clouds. That area looks to have convergence, but I don't think a circulation is there or will develop there. There is an anticyclone developing in the convection around 20N 55W That's where I'd bet this thing spins up from. We'll see

yep I agree, people are focusing on the whole blob but the southern area is where we need to watch for development -- and the models would have to shift south some as they put the "low" a bit farther north...

[x-y-no]

See my post The GOES java page allows you to zoom the visible to see the low level clouds. That area looks to have convergence, but I don't think a circulation is there or will develop there. There is an anticyclone developing in the convection around 20N 55W That's where I'd bet this thing spins up from. We'll see

yep I agree, people are focusing on the whole blob but the southern area is where we need to watch for development -- and the models would have to shift south some as they put the "low" a bit farther north...

I'll agree as well. the low-level convergence appears to be strongest in that area and the developing upper-level anticyclone is centered there as well. If something is to spin up, that's the area it'll happen in.

[BensonTCwatcher]

See my post The GOES java page allows you to zoom the visible to see the low level clouds. That area looks to have convergence, but I don't think a circulation is there or will develop there. There is an anticyclone developing in the convection around 20N 55W That's where I'd bet this thing spins up from. We'll see

yep I agree, people are focusing on the whole blob but the southern area is where we need to watch for development -- and the models would have to shift south some as they put the "low" a bit farther north...

Yep, the models won't be worth a whole lot until we get a an LLC fixed. Also, have to weed out the BAMM's etc since it's this far north. The tropicals won't help in the short runs

[CrazyC83]

I'm sensing a WSW movement with this blob, even SW at times. We could see Felix coming soon.

[PTrackerLA]

The southern end of this wave has really fired up this morning. Obviously either the northern or southern part would develop because they are too close together.

[CaneCharmer]

Don't get excited, people, this wave is going nowhere...fast. No Felix from what I see on the latest satellite image.

[CronkPSU]

Hey No one is picking up on this one so it maybe nothing. Where is GFS models?

next run starts at 11:30

[CronkPSU]

Don't get excited, people, this wave is going nowhere...fast. No Felix from what I see on the latest satellite image.

this sounds like the old reverse whammo jammo...or someone just in denial

[Stormcenter]

I think we may a problem on the horizon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

[ronjon]

Interesting Discussion from HPC this morning.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
948 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

VALID 12Z FRI AUG 24 2007 - 12Z MON AUG 27 2007

...... THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE MEAN WAS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA WHERE 00Z/20 GEM GLOBAL AND 06Z/20 DGEX BOTH SUPPORT BRINGING A TROPICAL SYSTEM WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL FINE TUNE DETAILS OF THIS POSSIBLE EVENT WITH TPC DURING 16Z/20 CONFERENCE CALL.